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Money matters:
John Sheehan
Global Markets Asia
The inevitable demise of Western Democratic Capitalism? Part 3
Government crisis response
driven by popularity, not
performance
If 2008 was the year of the crash then 2009 was the year of
the slump. This may sound contrary to the rebound in some speculative markets
during 2009, but which is a better indicator of economic reality, a rise in
speculative capital markets or plunging world output? The underlying reality
that cannot be ignored is that during 2009 the world economy experienced its
greatest deterioration since the Second World War.
John Sheehan, Global Markets Asia
Government’s only response to crisis has been to pump
staggering sums of money into their economies, and the term “quantative easing”
or “QE” for short has entered the popular commentators’ vernacular. Clearly QE
is something only governments can do and is dependant on the idea of continuing
confidence in their ability to raise tax revenue to service debt. For a company,
though, QE is not a possibility, but surely whether for corporation or
government, basic common sense dictates that the concept of printing infinite
amounts of additional debt is just not sustainable.
Governments now seem to be expecting to receive some form of
accolade for so far managing to steer clear of a full blown depression. Bearing
in mind that it’s the governments who are one of the villains that got us into
this mess it demonstrates how warped the democratic capitalist model has become.
Budget deficits have grown to stage where they are now
spiralling out of control and clearly question western government’s inability to
govern. The depressing spectre of states being unable to pay their bills on time
is becoming worryingly familiar. Rather than make the necessary budget cuts and
take the austerity measures needed to put countries back on track, politicians
are more concerned with appeasing the electorate in the short term. Their view
seems to be that it is better to govern a country heading for bankruptcy rather
than lose an election!
2009 and the first half of 2010 are seeing the continuance of
the largest, broadest and fastest government stimulus response in history.
Bankrupt banks have been wrapped up in a multi-trillion dollar life-vest of
public cash and guarantees. Central banks dropped interest rates further and
some expanded their balance sheets. Governments from all parts of the world
embraced fiscal stimulus with enthusiasm like a shopaholic who has just been
given unlimited credit. Extraordinary levels of intervention helped stem panic,
propped up the financial system and countered reductions in private demand.
Two questions remain: Firstly, for how long can the US
continue selling more debt at low interest rates? Secondly, how much can they
print until they run out of steam - there is no such thing in life as a free
lunch, and the only people who will be left to pay the bill will ultimately be
the taxpayers and their children!
What government should have done in 2008 is stick
consistently to the philosophy that created the boom; that is to let market
forces prevail, as the USA did in 1990 and Asia did in response to the 1997
crisis. If they had done so, the financial system would possibly have collapsed
temporarily, widespread business destruction would have occurred and
unemployment would have gone through the roof. Industries in jurisdictions where
they were most inefficient, like cars in the USA would likely have become
extinct. Massive amounts of wealth would have been wiped out as asset prices
collapsed.
These are all appalling events that would have also exposed
the totality of Government incompetence and make them extremely unpopular! But
at least industry and investment would have quickly rebounded back to a point
from which growth could occur again and the process of re-employment and wealth
creation could start afresh. Surely this is a better alternative to the decades
of recessionary economics that have now been unleashed upon western economies
that will eventually cost trillions more than the short, sharp, hard medicine
and ensuing faster recovery that should have occurred?
So why did Government choose the wrong response to crisis?
For the same reason that they allowed their economies during the boom to spiral
out of control; they didn’t know what they were doing!
Within 18 months, the US investment banks had collapsed from
global titans into extinction, so when crisis struck Government were astonished
by the scale of the problem and how far out of their depth they were.
Prior to the Lehman bankruptcy the markets naively believed
that Government vaguely knew what was going on. Lehman’s abrupt collapse
debunked that myth, and it may take many years for market confidence in
Government to return.
Government’s answer to the 2008 crisis was therefore a panic
measure, a knee-jerk response to their own incompetence that was not properly
thought through nor understood. The most worrying thing about all of this is
that Government has convinced itself that it has actually chosen the best crisis
response. It is clear from their comments in 2009 that they believe they have
done a good job, but the reality is that the true extent of their failings will
continue to unravel during 2010 and beyond.
In the meantime the administration will retain its iconic
status as the butt of Wall Street’s private jokes.
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Megapixels, shutter speeds and f stops
 I
saw a young photographer last weekend, trying to take shots of moving
action, while fully equipped with a camera phone, and being bitterly
disappointed. The words ‘horses for courses’ came immediately to mind.
Now whilst I know that camera phone technology has
improved over the years, the end result is always a compromise. Is it a
camera you can get phone calls on, or a phone that takes pictures? It is
like the microwave oven that has a clock built in. Do you buy it to tell
you the time, or to defrost food? (Please do not write in with the
correct answers, there are no prizes for obvious questions!)
It actually stands to reason that if it requires a
boxful of electronics something the size of a reasonable dictionary,
with an expensive piece of glass mounted on it to get great photos, then
you are not going to get the same quality from a camera phone.
No, I use my camera to take photographs only, and do
not expect it to be able to dial San Francisco, nor do I expect the
reverse with my mobile phone.
One of the problems when comparing cameras with
cameras (forgetting camera phones for the minute) is people tend to read
the magic number called megapixels and conclude that it is the deciding
parameter between brilliant, good and not so good. 24 megapixels is
better than 12 which in turn better is than 4.
Whilst the above is partly true, it really does
depend upon what you want to do with the end result. Are you going to be
blowing it up to the size of a barn door, or will it be a 4R (6x4) at
most? If you have been hired to produce photographs for billboards, then
look at a camera with megapixels coming out its strap swivels.
Otherwise, anything from six to 10 MP is more than adequate.
So what should you be looking for when buying a
camera these (electronic) days? To start with, a fast autofocus. Instant
zip-zip, not “pause for a second while I get myself ready and then zip”.
I would also recommend inbuilt image stabilization.
So many photographs are spoiled by camera movement producing ‘soft’
images, that can be overcome with image stabilization electronics. And
as a further small advantage, these types of systems are particularly
good for the senior citizen photographer.
You should also look at the shutter speeds the camera
is capable of. 1/2000th of a second should stop a
railway train (in Thailand, not in Japan) and be sufficient for 99
percent of action photography. It is also advantageous if any proposed
camera has a time exposure setting so you can take photographs at night,
including fireworks.
The other factor of importance is the Aperture,
commonly called the f stop. The lens should be able to open up to
at least f 4, and close down to at least f 16. This is to
give you control over depth of field in your picture taking.
Just about every camera (other than a phone camera)
has several modes for you to play with, or to help you. An ‘Auto’ mode
for the days you are feeling lazy, or too rushed to start selecting
shutter speed and apertures, is totally necessary for the weekend
photographer. A for ‘Auto’ is fine for at least 60 percent of weekend
photographs. It is only when we start getting into the remaining 40
percent that we need extra capabilities.
However, unless you are very aware photographically,
a mode setting that selects the optimal shutter speed and aperture for
the action photograph is a good feature to have in your new camera. The
young photographer with the camera phone needed this feature last
weekend - and camera phones don’t have it.
Most cameras these days also have many other modes,
and although I still believe you should know ‘why’ you open up by a
couple of f stops when the subject is back-lit, which is what the
‘back-light’ mode does for you, that isn’t really necessary. I’m just
being old-fashioned, I suppose.
And my camera? 10 MP, 1/2000th
shutter speed and f 2.8.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Anyone for an MRI?
Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is one of the newer
diagnostic examinations that can be done. The procedure is similar to an
X-Ray, in the fact that the end result shows the internal structures of the
body with a test that produces very clear pictures - but without the use of
X-rays. MRI uses a large magnet, radio waves, and a computer to produce
these images.
Some folk are a little apprehensive about these newer
tests, but the risks to the average person are negligible. The MRI uses
magnetic fields, rather than radio-active imaging. However, the magnetic
field is very strong. Walk into the examination room and the MRI can wipe
the details from the magnetic strip on your credit card, stop your watch and
even pull the stethoscope from the doctor’s pocket!
People who have had heart surgery and people with the
following medical devices can be safely examined with MRI: surgical clips or
sutures, artificial joints, staples, cardiac valve replacements (except the
Starr-Edwards metallic ball/cage), disconnected medication pumps, vena cava
filters or brain shunt tubes for hydrocephalus.
However, there are some conditions may make an MRI
examination inadvisable. Tell your doctor if you have any of the following
conditions: heart pacemaker, cerebral aneurysm clip (metal clip on a blood
vessel in the brain), pregnancy during the first three months (we are just
being super cautious here), implanted insulin pump (for treatment of
diabetes), narcotics pump (for pain medication), or implanted nerve
stimulators (“TENS”) for back pain, metal in the eye or eye socket, cochlear
(ear) implant for hearing impairment, or implanted spine stabilization rods.
MRI is also different from X-Rays in what it can pick up.
The MRI can detect tumors, infection, and other types of tissue disease or
damage. It can also help diagnose conditions that affect blood flow. Tissues
and organs that contain water provide the most detailed MRI pictures, while
bones and other hard materials in the body do not show up well on MRI
pictures, as opposed to X-Rays which do show bone well but not soft tissue.
For these reasons, MRI is most useful for detecting conditions that increase
the amount of fluid in a tissue, such as an infection, tumors, and internal
bleeding.
I think most people are familiar with the standard X-Ray
procedure, stand there, breathe in, hold it, now breathe out routine, but
MRIs are a little different. These are done with you lying there and
inserted into the MRI scanner, which is like a tunnel. Those people who are
claustrophobic can have a little problem here, as the MRI “tunnel” is very
tight. When I had my own MRI done I noticed that my nose was close to the
top of the tunnel and both elbows were brushing the sides, and I am
considered a reasonably slim individual. I have to say that although not
claustrophobic, I do not particularly like being in enclosed spaces, and
found that the best way to endure the MRI was to pretend I was lying
relaxing in a field.
During the procedure, which can take up to an hour, you
can hear the operator talking to you, and he or she can hear your reply, but
you still will feel rather isolated in your magnetic tunnel. You can also
hear (and feel) muffled thumps and groans that come from the tube, which can
be somewhat unsettling.
In some cases a contrast material may be used during the
MRI scan to enhance the images of certain structures which may help evaluate
blood flow, detect some types of tumors, and locate areas of inflammation.
The contrast material is injected via a vein, and the MRI operator will
advise you when this is being injected. You may feel a warmth or even
tingling feeling as this is happening, but this is not worrisome.
The radiologist then reviews the pictures produced and
will advise you of the outcome. I hope it will be good news!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I was gratified to read that someone has finally come out in public regarding
the pop-up toaster situation in Thailand (Heart to Heart in March this
year). After reading your column I realized there is at least one other person
experiencing this curious problem. I must say that your thoughtful attention and
technical advice to the victim show how wide your sympathies are.
Until very recently I have been inserting a chopstick into
the spring loading mechanism of my own toaster. While clearly not a procedure
that gives full satisfaction, at least it discourages the toast from popping up
at inappropriate times. Two days ago there occurred a new and startling
development. Despite wearing rubber gloves and taking other precautions, I
received a very nasty electric shock. At the same time there was a strange
coldness and musty odor in the room. I had the distinct impression I was not
alone.
I am not a person given to half-baked theories or wild
speculation. Nevertheless, bearing in mind that I am on my fourth toaster, I am
beginning to suspect a malign and sinister force is at work. Frankly, I am
having trouble lying straight in bed with the worry of it all. Do you think I
could be onto something?
A Frightened Expatriate
Dear Frightened Expat,
My first question is - do you insert the chopstick when the toaster is on? If we
look at animate objects, insertions of such devices are associated with extreme
pain, my Petal. Ever missed your mouth when eating Chinese food and ended up
sticking a chopstick up your nose? You’ll know what I mean. Perhaps your toaster
takes on some animate aura when the ‘pop’ is pushed?
On the other hand, since this is your fourth toaster, perhaps we should be
looking at another, more simple reason, but one that has far reaching
ramifications (sorry about the long words but somebody stole my newspaper this
morning and I am forced to read the dictionary with my coffee). I am led to
think along these lines as you mention, “Despite wearing rubber gloves and
taking other precautions,” you received the electric shock. This prompts me to
ask what “other precautions” have you been forced to take? The mind boggles at
the range this could include. Seat belts on the lounge chairs? Explosion screen
in front of the television set? Hand rails around the kitchen? Gas mask in the
toilet? I’m sorry, you have on the surface given me so much information, but in
actual fact you have given me so little.
Finally, it is not often that I have to recommend exorcism (mainly because most
of my readers can’t spell it), but that may be your only way out of this endless
toaster problem.
Petal! Suddenly, as I wrote the above, the cause of your problem became obvious.
You mention a “strange coldness and musty odor in the room,” which indicates
very sinister forces, for which the only answer is a wooden stake through the
heart! Can’t you see what is happening? Your chopstick is the wooden stake you
are attempting to push through the heart of your toaster! Remove the stake and
it will no longer feel threatened by you. (And now tell me you have been using a
plastic chopstick and I’ll spit!)
Dear Hillary,
Like you always advise us, look for the “good” girls, and I have found one, but
there’s still a problem. She works in a dress shop and is really quite a
stunner. I pass by every day and if she spots me, I always get a wave and a big
smile. Sometimes I catch her outside the shop and she is always happy to chat.
In English which makes it even better, because my Thai is not so good. She saw
that I had bought a soft drink one day and told me what soft drink she likes and
so I have been buying a can for her and giving it to her if she is outside. But
today she just looked away and I was too embarrassed to go further. Hillary, I
have put six months into this, and I am starting to feel the chase after “good”
girls isn’t worth it. What do you suggest?
Joey
Dear Joey,
You have been buying soft drinks, smiling like an idiot and nodding for six
months and you wonder why this girl has given up on you? Come on, Joey Boy, six
months and no invitation to dinner, movies, lunch and all the usual ways of
getting to know a “good” girl. I would have given up on you by three months,
Petal. If the man isn’t prepared to take the next step, what future is there in
such a relationship? None! Your girl from the dress shop was hoping for some
excitement in her life. There must be more than “That dress looks lovely on you,
Madam.” She was hoping she would be saying, “Lunch next week? Yes, what day?”
What did she get? “Here’s a can of soft drink, love.” (Grin, grin, smile.) “D’ya
wanna cola tomorrow?” Some days you men amaze me with your gormless approach to
life. Be a little more brave next time Joey.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Bang Rajan 2: Thai, Action/ War – The sequel to
Bang Rajan, it continues the patriotic legend of a tiny farming
village that fought Burmese invaders despite insurmountable odds and
successfully held off a foreign invasion until the capital at Ayutthaya
could put up a proper defense. It looks as though this episode will be
as ferociously violent and bloody as the original, with even more
buffaloes and mustaches.
When in Rome: US, Comedy/ Romance – Rom-com cliches,
but a pair of young, attractive leads. Kristen Bell plays a young,
ambitious New Yorker who is completely unlucky in love. However, on a
whirlwind trip to Rome, she impulsively steals some coins from a reputed
fountain of love, and is then aggressively pursued by a band of suitors.
Generally unfavorable reviews.
Nak Prok / Shadow of the Naga: Thai, Action/ Drama — A
long-shelved monks-with-guns crime drama, it’s the story of three
thieves who bury their loot on the grounds of a Buddhist monastery, and
when they come back later to dig it up, they find a temple has been
built on the spot. So they ordain as Buddhist monks while they figure
out how to get their treasure. The film actually premiered in
2008 in Toronto, but its strong depictions of the thieves robed as
Buddhist monks have kept it out of Thai theaters until now, when the new
rating system allows more controversial scenes and images, if properly
rated. 18+ in Thailand.
Alice in Wonderland (3D): US, Adventure/ Family/
Fantasy – Not your usual Alice, because it’s a new story, a riff on the
original, with Alice all grown up as a late teens girl about to be
proposed to. Escaping for a moment from the ditz proposing to her, she
returns to Wonderland to find the strange land now in the hands of a
cruel despot who is making life miserable for everybody. With director
Tim Burton, plus this particular Alice (Misa Wasikowska), plus Johnny
Depp in another of his way-out-there tragicomic performances, plus 3D –
it adds up to an unforgettable, one-of-a-kind movie experience. Mixed or
average reviews. In 3D, and at Pattaya Beach only.
Green Zone: France/ US/ Spain/ UK, Action/ Drama/
Thriller/ War – Courageous director Paul Greengrass takes on the whole
Bush Administration (and the Blair administration too I guess) as he
reminds us all, very forcefully, that there never were “Weapons of Mass
Destruction” in Iraq and the governments knew it, and the whole fiction
was created as an excuse to go to war. Starring Matt Damon as a US Army
officer who hunts for the elusive WMD and finds only an elaborate
cover-up. Rated R in the US for violence and language, 18+ in Thailand.
Big C has only a Thai-dubbed version; in English elsewhere. Generally
favorable reviews.
Daybreakers: Australia/ US, Action/ Drama/ Horror/
Sci-Fi/ Thriller – For me, a most excellent and exciting vampire film in
the old school. In the year 2019, a plague has transformed most every
human into a vampire. Faced with a dwindling blood supply, the dominant
race plots their survival; meanwhile, a researcher works with a covert
band of vampires on a way to save humankind. But be aware, it’s a true
vampire film, and as such is very bloody indeed, with many gory deaths
and a slew of decapitations, including close-ups of the severed heads
seemingly on the verge of speaking a few final words. Starring Ethan
Hawke, Willem Dafoe, and Sam Neill. Rated R in the US for strong bloody
violence, language, and brief nudity; 18+ in Thailand. Big C has only a
Thai-dubbed version; in English at Pattaya Beach. Mixed or average
reviews.
The Book of Eli: US, Action/ Adventure/ Drama/
Thriller/ Western – Not for everyone, but I found it thoroughly
engrossing. The story revolves around a lone warrior (Denzel Washington)
who must fight to bring society the knowledge that could be the key to
survival. Gary Oldman is great as the despot of a small town who’s
determined to take possession of the book Eli’s guarding. Directed by
the twin Hughes brothers (Albert and Allen), who inject some fresh
stylish fun into a post-apocalyptic wasteland. I think Denzel is
terrific! Rated R in the US for some brutal violence and language, 18+
in Thailand. At Pattaya Beach only. Mixed or average reviews.
Dear John: US, Drama/ Romance/ War – A romantic drama
about a soldier who falls for a conservative college student while he’s
home on leave. Intensely weepy, if you’re a 12-year-old girl. Starring
Channing Tatum, Amanda Seyfried, and Henry Thomas. At Major Cineplex
only. Mixed or average reviews.
Solomon Kane: France/ Czech Republic/ UK, Action/
Adventure/ Fantasy – Solomon Kane is a fictional character created by
the pulp-era writer Robert E. Howard. A 17th century Puritan and a
somber-looking man, Solomon Kane wanders the world with no apparent goal
other than to vanquish evil in all its forms. His adventures, published
mostly in the pulp magazine Weird Tales, often took him from
Europe to the jungles of Africa. Generally favorable reviews.
Avatar: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – A
very good film and a truly major technological breakthrough. It’s
exciting and beautiful, and has received near-universal rave reviews
from critics and fans. Only Major Cineplex is showing it now, and in 2D.
Reviews: Universal acclaim. Not to be missed.
The Little Comedian / Ban Chan: Thai, Family/ Comedy –
A family comedy troupe harbors a black sheep – a son who isn’t funny
and is constantly upstaged by his filthy-mouthed younger sister.
Comedian Jaturong Mokjok plays the father of the clan. In Thai only at
Big C; English subtitles elsewhere.
Kong Phan: A “gays in the military romp.” In Thai
only, at Big C only.
Percy Jackson & the Olympians: Canada/ US, Fantasy/
Comedy – Zeus’ lightning bolt has been stolen, and high school student
Percy Jackson is the prime suspect in this sprawling and entertaining
teen adventure. At Pattaya Beach only. Mixed or average reviews.
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