HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:

Mysterious East

More about life upcountry

A superb tribute to Mike Franklin

An expat moans

Priorities

In response to columnist Graham Macdonald

Mysterious East

Dear Ed;
After 21 years experiencing Thailand, there remains much that is a mystery to me as follows. Why does the supermarket checkout girl treat me like a decrepit old man while the bargirl treats me like a 25 year old? Why do taxi drivers pip at me when I’m walking in the opposite direction?
Why do my fellow young countrymen after shuttering the peace with violence, turn into pathetic wimps when they wake up in a cell? Why do only people whose first language is English acknowledge me when I step off the pavement or hold a door open for them? Why am I invisible to a crowd of oriental’s blocking my path? Why was the owner of the barking dog not kept awake for three hours last night as was I?
Why was I driven to remonstrate with tourists from a supposedly sophisticated oriental country for smoking their heads off in an internal non smoking bar? Where did that grotesque mountain of blubber in black socks find that ultra perfect specimen of womanhood who has avoided me for two decades? Why have most of my female companions had sick papas younger than myself?
Where now is my ex Thai wife who left me fifteen years ago following a row over a hot dog? Should I reproach myself for being so annoyed, yet keep coming back?
Yours,
Dorian Farmer

More about life upcountry

Editor;
I enjoyed the letter “Life outside Pattaya” from Rory. In fact, it’s not just Issan that is better than Pattaya.
I was traveling from Phitsanulok to Bangkok and came upon a police traffic stop just south of Lopburi. The officer said I was going over 120 kph, and in fact I was. He pointed to a roadside bus stop where a police colonel was sitting and told me to go see him. I knew I was wrong, so I went with my wallet in hand and asked how much was the fine. The colonel looked at me and said, “I don’t want your money, I just want you to slow down. Will you do that?” I said yes, and he let me go.
Wish Pattaya police road blocks were that accommodating.
Farang Observer
Pattaya

A superb tribute to Mike Franklin

Dear Sir,
What a superb tribute to Mike from Woody and Paul. Could I just make an addition - for many years Mike ran the Diana Seniors and Ladies competition at Pattaya Country Club on the last Thursday of each month.
Mike knew that he would be missing the July competition and asked me to run it on his behalf. I did, and the competitions for the remainder of the year - Mike was hoping to come to the November one and present the prizes - sadly this was not possible. It was a privilege to be trusted with something that Mike had made very much his own.
I also had the honour of appearing on Insight - and as Paul said, I found myself talking about things that were deep in my memory.
With the recent passing of Steve Donavan Pattaya has lost two of its characters and will the poorer by their loss.
Nigel Cannon

An expat moans

Editor;
It was a late afternoon sometime last Monday (or Tuesday, I can’t quite remember) so imagine my horror when I looked out of the window of my Pattaya condo to see a sight that I never thought I would witness in Fun City: nothing was happening.
There is a piece of land adjacent to my home which measures approximately 3 rai. This piece of land has been unused and vacant for some years. Anything could happen on this piece of land, anything at all. A tornado or typhoon could alight upon it, causing goodness knows how much catastrophe and misery, but last week, when I looked out upon it nothing, nothing was happening at all.
I immediately called the authorities and with some Thai speaking assistance I endeavored to communicate my distress to the appropriate bodies.
Then I waited. And waited. And then I waited some more. I walked out onto my balcony and sure enough, nothing was still happening or something was still not happening. Imagine my distress as a long term guest in this fine country to discover that an earthquake or meteor strike had still not occurred.
Again by telephone and with Thai speaking assistance I managed to register my complaint with the agencies responsible.
Eventually - after a seemingly interminable wait - a representative of the local governing body arrived (by Honda motorcycle) to inspect the scene. He also agreed that nothing was happening at the location. I felt he was somewhat dismissive of my complaints even though I, as a long term pessimist in many other countries, pointed out to him exactly where something might happen at some point in the next century.
Why, oh, why, oh why does this attitude of ‘mai pen rai’ have to be so pervasive in our city?
I had absolutely nothing to moan about for a whole week and nothing at all to complain to ‘Pattaya Mail’ about. This is disgraceful.
Meanwhile, I shall ensure that the spare land next to my condo is kept under extreme scrutiny. Something may happen. Possibly. Or not. You never know.
Harry Flanagan
The Knowledge Of The Obvious

Priorities

Editor;
After reading in Pattaya Mail where about a big accident when two ladies on a motorbike were hurt very bad, the big question is: “When are the police going to start alcohol checks of people driving the big killing machines (SUV) and spend some less time checking helmets?” People without helmets hurt nobody but themselves and it’s time to protect these people from drunk driving killers in tanks.
Dutchie
Jomtien

In response to columnist Graham Macdonald

Editor;
In reference to Graham Macdonald’s column in Pattaya Mail Vol. XVII No. 2, thank you for being and propagating more financial cannon fodder for the more well reasoned investors in the world (such as Warren Buffet, the, er, world’s richest man, and um, me). For certain, Mr. Buffet is wrong and you are correct. I will be sure to heed your advice over his. From what I gathered, you advocate buying at the top, not the bottom, while Mr. Buffet advocates the opposite.
Have you ever read ‘Market Wizards’? I like Jim Rogers’ legendary quote, where he says “I just wait until I see money laying over in the corner of the room. Then I go over there and pick it up.” There are fantastic opportunities available today to buy world dominating brands (Wal-Mart, Coke, McDonald’s etc...) at rock bottom prices.
Regards,
Ken Stone
Graham answers:
Dear Mr. Stone,
As there seem to be a number of misunderstandings here, I would ask you to re-read the column and note that:
1) Warren Buffett, via Berkshire Hathaway, is used as one of the equity managers by MBMG within our portfolios. However, we have reduced our exposure to him and have recommended our readers to do the same. As a result of this, our client long term strategic portfolios yielded profitable returns in all available currencies (THB, SGD, AUD, GBP and USD) last year. Our small exposure to Berkshire Hathaway was one of the worst performing components with a loss of around 30% in USD terms.
2) Statistical data confirms that our core portfolios have yielded among the very best performances over every significant period since we started offering them around ten years ago. We are happy to continue to use Warren Buffett within them to the extent that he can make a useful contribution to the long term overall returns of the portfolio but we will continue through diversification and active asset allocation to target ourselves to deliver more reliable, secure and consistent returns than simply investing into Berkshire Hathaway. If you re-read the column you will note that we are saying that it is our view that the markets may not be at the bottom and that Warren Buffett knows that, despite his public comments to “buy American.”
3) We believe that equity markets in general, and Berkshire Hathaway in particular, will rebound at some stage but it is far from clear to us that the time of this rebound is anything like at hand. For anyone to make that call right now is exceptionally brave. So far we have been proven right and we are poised and ready to move back into markets as soon as it is apparent that either we are wrong or that markets change. To us anything else is the height of irresponsibility.
4) We have to be responsible to our clients and to our readers - whether that makes for happy reading or not. A lot of people have been misled into losing half of their wealth or more during the crisis so far - our readers and our clients have profited. If that means upsetting some readers who only want to be deluded by rose-tinted forecasts then so be it. It is interesting that you mention Jim Rogers whose thoughts and views we read regularly. Mr. Rogers has, for some time, been recommending that investors shun US listed equities and I believe still sees that many better opportunities exist outside of the American equity arena. I am sure that he would endorse the ideas of wariness about equities, the US economy and currency as well as the need to diversify into other asset classes.
5) There are far better opportunities than equities from a risk-reward perspective - anyone looking at the economic recovery scenario should be looking at corporate bonds and leveraged loans along with commodities as a better potential opportunity than many listed equities - albeit with similar correlation. This does not seem to be a good time to make a one way bet when you can cover your bases more profitably.
6) We believe that the advice given in this column has been consistent and reliable. This has allowed our clients and readers to achieve growth in their portfolios when other markets and indices have lost over 40% or more.
In summary, we agree with Warren Buffett about acquiring value - we just do not think that US equities represent good value right now. If we are right, we will make good returns and BH will continue to lose money. If we are wrong then both we and BH will make good money.
Ed’s note: A quick check on Google finance shows that Berkshire Hathaway A is -14% YTD, -9% since we received this letter, and -34% since this time last year. Berkshire Hathaway B is -11% YTD, -9% since we received this letter, and -35% from this time last year.

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