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‘The New Depression’ Author to Speak at Bangkok Event
Economist Richard Duncan, who has written The New Depression, a book
explaining why he believes civilisation is heading for disaster not known
since the Second World War, will be in Bangkok on 5th November as part of an
MBMG-sponsored dinner discussion, entitled ‘What the Future Holds’.
Duncan puts this pessimistic outlook down to the global economy’s reliance
on credit, rather than capital. He suggests that for over 100 years, the
so-called capitalist economic system has in fact been what he calls
‘creditism’.
His reasoning behind this distinction is that in traditional capitalism, the
government played very little role. The growth dynamic was driven by
businessmen who invest, make profit and then save or accumulate capital to
achieve further growth.
However, nowadays the cycle is to create credit, consume and then create
more credit. This has facilitated rapid economic growth and globalisation;
yet we are at a point where the economy cannot expand any further because
the private sector cannot survive with any more debt.
Duncan points out that this is what happened in the early twentieth century,
when the European powers borrowed gold from the US to fund their
participation in the First World War, racking up a massive budget deficit.
This eventually led to the Great Depression and ultimately the rise in
political extremism and the Second World War.
Duncan explains that he can see three possible ways forward, only one of
which will avert disaster: for governments to continue borrowing money but
actually use that money on modern technologies instead of spending it on
over-consumption and fighting wars.
Another of the speakers, MBMG Managing Partner Paul Gambles, will be guest
hosting on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Wednesday. See CNBC.com for more details.
With these thoughts in mind, it will certainly be a fascinating discussion
in Bangkok.
Save the date
5th November - What the Future Holds, Sheraton Grande Sukhumvit, Bangkok,
registration 6.30pm, starts 7pm.
A dinner discussion with the 3 Bears in Bangkok! Three of the 20 economists
in the world who forecasted the events of 2008 will speak on what the future
holds for the global economy.
Sponsored by MBMG, Stanley Gibbons, Belvedere, Money Channel, AustCham,
BCCT, The Nation AMCHAM, Precipio and Pattaya Mail.
For information on where to get tickets and discounts e-mail Noey at
marketing @mbmg-international.com
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Northern railway opening postponed to Nov 30
Railway repairs for Thailand’s northern line, earlier
scheduled to be completed end of October, will be extended 30 days until
November 30, the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) announced.
The suspended services cover a 300 km stretch between Sila-at station and
Chiang Mai.
SRT Governor Prapat Chongsa-nguan said damage to sleepers and track were
more serious than earlier expected and the SRT wanted to ensure complete
safety to passengers.
He said heavy rains have delayed repairs and the SRT encountered a manpower
shortage as many workers whose homes were flooded returned to their home
towns.
A survey of the Northern line found that wooden sleepers at some spots were
older than 50 years and tracks were quite worn. (MCOT)
Thailand’s exports down
7% in September
Thailand’s exports down 7% in
September
Thailand’s exports in September declined by 7.09 percent
while exports for the entire year should grow by 4 percent, according to the
Commerce Ministry.
Srirat Rastapana, permanent secretary for commerce, said Thailand’s export
value in September was US$19.3 billion, or 7.09 percent lower compared to
the same month last year, while import value was at US$18.83 billion, a
decline of 5.23 percent or a US$473.2 million surplus.
Exports in the first nine months of the year amounted to US$172.13 billion -
a 0.05 percent increase from the same period last year, while import value
was US$189.8 billion - a 2.21 percent increase.
Accumulated losses in the first nine months were US$17.67 billion, mainly
due to export deficits with such countries as Japan, the Eurozone, the US
and India, she said.
The global economic slowdown has impacted Thailand’s exports with the
overall industrial sector suffering a 9.1 percent reduction from exports of
construction materials, jewelry and accessories and electrical appliances.
The export value of agricultural produce was, however, 2.7 percent higher.
If export value surges to US$21-22 billion per month in the final quarter of
this year, Thailand would enjoy an export growth of 4 percent, said Srirat.
She said the 4 percent possibility would be in accord with an earlier
statement from Commerce Minister Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisarn.
The Commerce Ministry would do its best, though the central bank has lowered
export value to only 1 percent, she said.
Srirat said the commerce minister would meet with industrial sector
representatives to jointly assess this year’s export value and map out a
strategy to boost exports next year.
The Commerce Ministry projects exports expanding by at least 5 percent next
year. (MCOT)
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Foreign reserves stocked up to prepare for baht uncertainty
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has predicted volatility in
the money market due to the ongoing risk from the US extension of its debt
ceiling.
Pongpen Ruengvirayudh, BoT deputy governor for monetary stability, said
there were periods when the Thai baht dropped by 7-8 percent though it had
never slid down 10 percent.
It cannot be predicted whether the US will extend the debt ceiling after the
February 7, 2014 deadline but the BoT will keep sufficient foreign reserves
to cope with the possible baht volatility, she said.
The Thai currency will be maintained at a level acceptable to Thai business
operators and to prevent severe impact from foreign capital outflows, she
said.
Pongpen said the BoT will launch its Thai Direct Investment (TDI) webpage to
provide one-stop information to investors and to encourage more Thai
business operators to invest abroad.
Thai investors have invested a total of US$5.5 billion in the first eight
months of this year, a slight decrease from the same period last year at
US$7.8 billion.
Thai investment overseas amounted to US$12.7 billion last year. (MCOT)
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Thai airports to charge
higher departure fees
Departure fees from all commercial airports in Thailand
will be increased by Bt100, the Airports of Thailand (AoT) announced last
week.
AoT chairman Sita Divari said the passenger service charge will be adjusted
from Bt100 to Bt200 for domestic flights and Bt700 to Bt800 for
international flights.
The new rates will be submitted to the Civil Aviation Committee for
endorsement before final approval by the Transport Ministry.
Sita said AoT will earn an extra Bt400 million from domestic passengers and
Bt2.4 billion from international passengers. AoT’s current departure fee
revenue is Bt16 billion annually.
He said that the airports authority has been shouldering losses from the
collection of departure fees at lower than cost.
The actual cost is Bt335 per domestic passenger but AoT charges only Bt100
per person or Bt236 below cost, he said.
“In addition to insurance for passengers, AoT will in the future issue a new
ticket to passengers who are stranded at the airport for over three hours,
entitling the passenger to a free flight in compensation,” he said. (MCOT)
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