BANGKOK, Thailand – The world is on course to exceed the 1.5°C global warming threshold set under the Paris Agreement, but rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions could still limit the overshoot and bring temperatures back down by the end of the century, according to a new United Nations report. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published its Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return on October 21, warning that the world must act urgently to minimize both the scale and duration of warming beyond the internationally agreed threshold.
The report marks a shift in the global climate debate. Rather than focusing only on whether the 1.5°C target can still be met without exceeding it, scientists are examining how far temperatures might rise above the limit and how quickly they could be brought back down. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said the opportunity to avoid exceeding 1.5°C had passed, but it remained possible to return to that level if countries rapidly reduced emissions and expanded carbon removal.
This temporary overshoot scenario could see global warming peak at approximately 1.7–1.8°C around the middle of the century before falling to 1.5°C or below by 2100. The report estimates about a 50% chance of achieving that outcome under the proposed pathway. However, reaching that goal would require far deeper emissions cuts than governments have currently pledged. Global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
Under existing national climate commitments, emissions would decline by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035. If countries fulfill their current pledges, global temperatures could still rise by approximately 2.6°C this century. Under current policies, warming could reach 2.8°C. Even if countries meet their existing commitments and additional net-zero targets, warming is projected to reach around 2.1°C.
The report calls for a major expansion of renewable energy, greater energy efficiency and a faster transition away from fossil fuels. In the lowest-overshoot scenario, global electricity generation from coal would need to fall sharply, with coal power effectively phased out worldwide by 2040. Carbon dioxide removal and permanent storage would also be needed on a massive scale, although the feasibility of delivering this remains uncertain.
Scientists warn that every additional fraction of a degree increases climate risks, including extreme heat, flooding, wildfires, damage to coral reefs and threats to polar ice sheets. Continued warming could also affect permafrost, ocean circulation, ecosystems, economies and human health. Climate scientist Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania, who was not involved in preparing the report, highlighted the potential economic and human costs of even small additional temperature increases. The report also notes that every five years of carbon dioxide emissions at current levels could add approximately 0.1°C to peak warming.
Despite the outlook, exceeding 1.5°C does not mean efforts to address climate change have become pointless. Scientists emphasize that the threshold is not a single dividing line between a safe world and an uninhabitable one. The risks increase with every additional fraction of a degree, making every reduction in emissions significant. The report was released ahead of the COP31 United Nations climate conference in Türkiye in November 2026, where governments will face continued pressure to turn climate pledges into concrete action.
The central message is that the world has lost the chance to avoid all overshoot of the 1.5°C threshold, but it has not lost the opportunity to limit the damage. The speed and scale of emissions reductions over the coming years will determine how far temperatures rise and whether the world can eventually return to the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious temperature goal.
