The gross domestic product of Thailand will rise by 3.6%, its export will go up by 1.2% and inflation will run at 3% next year, according to the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Presenting the forecast, UTCC president Thanavath Phonvichai said that the COVID-19 situation improved, the disease became endemic, tourists were returning to the country, the tourism sector was recovering, the private sector was spending more, farmers’ income was rising and there would be a general election in 2023.
According to Mr Thanavath, negative economic factors are the war between Russia and Ukraine which raises the prices of oil and commodities and accelerates inflation. Central banks are pressured to raise their policy rates. Global economies risk recession. There are uncertainties on the Chinese economic recovery. Fluctuations in worldwide money and capital markets cause fluctuations in the baht value. Tension between the United States and China reduces access to capital goods and affects global trade.
Mr Thanavath said there would be attempts to protect the Thai economy next year when it should grow by 3.6% on active tourism. The country should generate 1.1 trillion baht in revenue from the visits of 22 million people next year, he said.
The prices of farm products will rise and spending will thus increase. The service sector, especially its nightlife business, will recover and boost money circulation in the economic system.
Money will also be injected in the first half of next year due to the upcoming general election and it will effectively support the economy.
The global economy will recover at the end of the third quarter in 2023 because oil prices and inflation will stop increasing then.
In the second half of next year the government will raise its investment significantly especially in the Eastern Economic Corridor. That will boost the economy and the GDP in the second half of next year should expand by 3.7%, Mr Thanavath said. (TNA)