BANGKOK, Thailand – Phonchai Theeravet, Director of Thailand’s Fiscal Policy Office and spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance, stated that if the U.S. government eases its trade tariffs on Thailand and other trading partners, it could significantly boost Thailand’s economic growth.
Under a high-case scenario, which assumes a 10% reduction in U.S. import tariffs, Thailand’s GDP growth could increase to 2.5%, within a projected range of 2.0–3.0%. The primary drivers of this growth would be a rebound in exports and a resurgence in industrial production, supported by higher levels of private investment due to improved business confidence.
The Ministry of Finance noted that a more precise economic assessment would be made once there is further clarity on U.S. policy direction.
However, the Ministry also emphasized the importance of closely monitoring several risk factors that could influence Thailand’s economic performance, including:
- Future U.S. tax policies and retaliatory measures by other countries, particularly China.
- The direction of U.S. interest rate policies.
- Potential influx of goods into Thailand from countries affected by U.S. tariffs shifting their markets.
- Escalating geopolitical conflicts in various global regions.
- Relocation of production bases and investment due to trade tensions.
- Volatility in the economies of Thailand’s major trading partners.
- Rising levels of household and business debt in Thailand, which may become a concern going forward.
The Ministry affirmed its commitment to continually monitoring these developments and adjusting policy responses accordingly to ensure sustainable economic stability.
