BANGKOK, Thailand – Kasikornbank expects the Thai baht to trade between 33.00 and 33.60 baht per US dollar during September 21–25, compared with Friday’s close of 33.33 baht per dollar.
The bank said markets will focus this week on Thailand’s August export figures, developments in the Middle East, comments from Federal Reserve officials and the September 24 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The baht weakened early last week in line with the Japanese yen and most Asian currencies, despite rising global oil prices amid signs of increased tension in the Middle East. The US dollar gained support ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 policy meeting as investors expected the central bank to maintain a relatively restrictive monetary stance amid continued concerns over inflation.
The baht weakened further in the middle of the week, reaching 33.43 baht per dollar, its weakest level in about six weeks. Kasikornbank said the move followed the Fed meeting, which indicated that US inflation remained above the central bank’s target and was declining only gradually. The Fed raised its policy rate to 3.75–4.00%, in line with market expectations. Its latest dot plot also indicated the possibility of one further rate increase before the end of the year.
Toward the end of the week, the baht remained under pressure alongside the yen, which weakened after the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting. However, rising gold prices and a pullback in global oil prices helped limit the baht’s decline. In addition to Thailand’s August trade figures, investors will monitor developments in the Middle East and statements from Fed officials for clues about the direction of US monetary policy.
US economic data due this week include new home sales, August durable goods orders, consumer confidence and inflation expectations, the preliminary September Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and weekly initial jobless claims. Markets will also watch China’s loan prime rate decision and preliminary September PMI figures from Japan, the eurozone and the United Kingdom. The September 24 meeting between Trump and Xi will also be closely watched for developments affecting global trade and relations between the world’s two largest economies. This version keeps Kasikornbank’s 33.00–33.60 baht per dollar range prominent while giving readers enough context on why the currency is moving.
