BANGKOK, Jan 8 — The Kasikorn Research Centre warns of many negative factors impacting Thai exports to the European Union (EU) this year, especially being excluded from the EU’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), ending Thailand’s tariff privileges worth US$252 million.
The think tank warned that the economic recovery of the EU remained uncertain, and the baht is stronger against the euro, especially when being compared with Vietnam’s dong and the Indonesian rupiah on top of the GSP exclusion.
The growth rate of Thai exports to the EU may fall to between 0.5 to 3.5 per cent this year instead of last year’s 4.6 per cent, if the EU economy expands by 1.1 per cent this year.
If the expansion rate is lower, Thai exports to Europe may shrink, the Kasikorn Research Centre stated.
The centre advises Thai operators to maintain product quality to retain their EU markets.
It warns that the EU may order basic raw materials from Thailand’s neighbors.
Such products include natural rubber, rubber products, processed chicken, gems, jewelry, chemical products and seafood.
Exporters with large-scale production should better cope as they have flexibility in cost management.
The Kasikorn study also considers manufacturers of computers, computer parts, automobiles, air-conditioners and electrical appliances.