PATTAYA, Thailand – Global financial markets are facing increased pressure from three major risk factors — the Middle East conflict, renewed trade tensions, and the growing technology rivalry between the United States and China — according to Asia Plus Securities. The firm said these three conflicts are directly affecting investor confidence and reducing demand for riskier assets as markets attempt to assess the impact on energy prices, global trade, and future technology development.
Middle East Conflict Drives Energy Concerns
The Middle East situation has intensified, with tensions between the United States and Iran raising concerns over global energy supplies. The conflict has affected commercial shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transport routes, while pushing crude oil prices higher. WTI crude oil has moved closer to US$90 per barrel amid concerns over possible disruptions to supply. Analysts said continued uncertainty in the region could create further pressure on energy markets and increase volatility across global investments.
Trade War Risks Return
A renewed trade dispute is also creating uncertainty, as the United States prepares possible new import tariff measures affecting more than 60 trading partners, including Thailand. The proposed tariffs are expected to be in the range of 10% to 12.5%, following the expiration of a temporary 10% tariff measure. Thailand remains at risk of higher tariffs due to its growing trade surplus with the United States. The country ranked among the top nations contributing to the US trade deficit in 2025, moving higher from previous years. Analysts said new trade barriers could affect export-related industries and increase pressure on companies operating in global supply chains.
AI Competition Intensifies
The technology rivalry between the United States and China has also become a major market focus, particularly in artificial intelligence development. Chinese startup Moonshot AI recently announced its Kimi K3 model, a large-scale AI model that is expected to become available as an open-weight download. The development has increased attention on competition between Chinese and US technology companies. The United States has raised concerns over the model’s development and data sources, including claims involving the use of US technology and Thailand-based server infrastructure. Meanwhile, major technology companies continue expanding AI investment. Alphabet reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results, with revenue reaching US$119 billion, up 24% year-on-year, while earnings per share increased significantly.
The company’s cloud business grew 82% year-on-year, supported by rising demand for AI services. Alphabet also increased its capital expenditure outlook to between US$195 billion and US$205 billion, benefiting companies involved in AI infrastructure. Tesla, however, faced greater challenges. Although revenue increased to US$28.2 billion and electric vehicle sales recovered to about 480,000 units, earnings per share declined 18% year-on-year to US$0.33 due to lower profit margins amid intense price competition, especially in China.
Thai Companies Show Mixed Outlook
For Thailand’s listed companies, Asia Plus Securities estimates second-quarter 2026 net profits from 129 companies, representing 86% of market capitalization, at approximately 293 billion baht.
Although the figure represents a decline of 2.1% quarter-on-quarter and 3.8% year-on-year compared with a strong previous period, several sectors are expected to show growth, including petrochemicals, packaging, agriculture, information and communication technology, and tourism.
The research team noted that since April 2026, earnings-per-share forecasts for the Thai stock market have been revised upward by 3.8%, ranking second globally behind the Dow Jones Index and outperforming several regional markets.
Investment Strategy Amid Uncertainty
Asia Plus Securities recommends focusing on sectors expected to remain resilient during periods of global uncertainty, including energy, insurance, healthcare, petrochemicals, and retail.
The firm highlighted two investment themes: Companies expected to see earnings growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year include IVL, PTTGC, BCP, TRUE, SCGP, DOHOME, PTTEP, ADVICE, SC, ADVANC, PTT, and MASTER. Companies with continued growth potential but whose share prices have lagged include BCPG, AMATA, DELTA, and CRC.
For daily top picks, Asia Plus Securities selected DELTA, BDMS, and CPALL, citing their defensive characteristics and limited negative impact from current global risks. Analysts said investors should continue monitoring developments across energy markets, international trade, and artificial intelligence competition as the three major conflicts remain key drivers of market volatility.
