PATTAYA, Thailand – The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has forecast that the “Khon La Khrueng Plus” co-payment scheme will help support Thailand’s economy in the fourth quarter of 2025, boosting GDP by 0.2–0.3% and contributing to an overall expansion of 1.3% compared with the same period last year. This follows an estimated 1.5% growth in Q3, which saw a slight contraction of 0.5% from the previous quarter due to temporary production shutdowns and U.S. tariff impacts on exports.
Assistant Governor Sakkaphop Phanyanukul noted during the Monetary Policy Forum 3/2568 that while the Thai economy showed improvement in the first half of 2025, the second half faces slower growth from manufacturing and export pressures. Tourism is gradually recovering, and the current monetary policy remains accommodative, with three rate cuts earlier this year to support businesses and vulnerable households. BOT emphasized that any future adjustments will consider both economic trends and the limited room for monetary easing.
BOT also highlighted that structural challenges continue to constrain private investment, particularly outside the BOI-promoted electronics sector. Director Surach Tanboon confirmed that deflation risks remain low, citing stable inflation trends and moderate expectations. Negative inflation is mainly due to falling fuel and fresh food prices, with general inflation expected to return to positive territory in Q2 2026 and target levels by early 2027.
Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat added that foreign tourism is recovering, particularly from China, with international arrivals projected to reach 33 million in 2025 and 35 million in 2026, including 4.4 million Chinese tourists this year, rising to 6 million next year. BOT reaffirmed strict oversight to prevent scammers and illicit funds from entering Thailand’s financial system, working closely with law enforcement and the Anti-Money Laundering Office. (TNA)
