KBANK said it could not disclose loan exposure specifics in the nine flood-hit provinces in the South but noted the region accounts for 2.6% of Thailand’s GDP.
The Bank of Thailand estimates the disaster will shave 0.1–0.2% off GDP growth in 2026.
KBANK has rolled out customer-support measures in line with central bank guidelines.
TISCO reported its southern loan portfolio represented 3–4% of total loans in Q3/2025 and will shrink further as flood-related risks taper.
While the impact on asset quality is expected to be limited, TISCO is tightening lending criteria and slowing expansion into high-yield loan products, citing a weak GDP outlook and vulnerable household debt levels.
Thai Credit Targets Growth, but With Stricter Screening
Thai Credit Bank (CREDIT) remains more upbeat, forecasting 10–15% loan growth in 2026.
Growth will be driven by Micro SMEs, home-backed loans, and unsecured personal loans—segments where CREDIT specializes.
The bank does not lend to large businesses, focusing exclusively on small entrepreneurs.
KTC Lowers 2026 Growth Targets
KTC expects a softer 2026 compared to this year, saying the macroeconomic environment will remain challenging for unsecured lenders.
The company will keep credit assessments tight across all categories.
Dividend Appeal Stands Out in an Otherwise Quiet Sector
CGSI maintains a Neutral stance on the banking sector. While short-term catalysts are limited, dividend yields remain a bright spot.
The sector trades at 0.7x forward P/BV for 2026, slightly above the five-year average of 0.64x.
CGSI names SCB and KBANK as its Top Picks, projecting 5.5–9.5% annual dividend yields for 2026–2027.
Key risks include a rise in non-performing loans and any further policy rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand.
Potential upside may come from stronger tourism flows, favorable U.S. tax conditions, and government infrastructure rollouts.
