Thailand’s GDP expected to fall 5%

Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries.
Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries.

BANGKOK, May 8 – The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) predicted the gross domestic product of Thailand will fall by 3-5% and its exports to shrink by 5-10% this year.

Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said the joint committee saw a softer economic slowdown than the 6.7% decline as anticipated by the International Monetary Fund because the government sector was working out rehabilitation measures.

Economic activities should gradually improve or bottom out and the economic slowdown in the second half of this year should be smaller than what happened in the first half of the year, he said.

JSCCIB predicted exports would decline by 5-10% and headline inflation would be at 0.0 to -1.5% this year on the condition that there is not a new round of coronavirus disease 2019 spreading in Thailand and other countries and the government will be gradually easing disease control measures, he said.

“The Thai economy will not show V-shaped recovery because the COVID-19 pandemic continues. So, the Thai economic recovery is foreseen in medium and long terms depending on specific industries. When the COVID-19 situation is under control, tourism will be back domestically. This year the Thai economy will not pick up. It also depends on whether external factors will be positive or not. If the vaccine is produced within this year, the economy will recover next year. We believe that the New Normal has happened to everything,” Mr Supant said.

The New Normal brought about considerable challenges and the global economic recession this year would continuously affect Thai exports and production, he said. (TNA)