Analysts slash year-end SET index to 1,569 points


BANGKOK, July 10 – Thailand’s securities analysts see investment in the country’s stock exchange index in the second half of the year lowering at year-end to 1,569 points from 1,625 points.

Sombat Narawutthichai, secretary-general of the Securities Analysts Association, said a survey was conducted in March among securities analysts from 21 companies.

He said their concerns included the Chinese economy, the termination of the US quantitative easing (QE) policy, internal political risks stemming from the two trillion baht loan bill, the constitutional amendment question, and rice pledging corruption.

According to the analysts, the highest index level was forecast at 1,626 points and the lowest at 1,329 points, while the Thai stock index at the end of 2014 is expected at 1,700 points. However, some analysts viewed the lowest index could fall to 1,200 points. The index will possibly fluctuate greatly.

Positive factors came from listed companies projections that their profits could still grow, the global economy rebound, and the still positive Thai economic expansion.

The surveyed analysts foresee the Thai economy likely to expand 4.6 per cent this year, and 4.8 per cent next year, while earnings per share are estimated to grow 20 per cent on average this year and 11.6 per cent next year.

Foreign sell-offs in the remainder of the year are expected to be slower with foreign net buys estimated to reach Bt5.6 billion, while next year is likely to be Bt24.2 billion.

Mr Sombat said investors should be more careful when investing in the stock exchange, for there are still worries on deflation owing to reduced domestic consumption, lower-than-expected exports, and the delay in the government’s infrastructure investment.

The Securities Analysts Association will review the bourse outlook again in October, Mr Sombat said.