PATTAYA, Thailand – Thailand’s central bank expects the economy to expand by 3.2% in the third quarter of 2026, supported mainly by domestic consumption, according to the Bank of Thailand.
Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said the outlook reflects continued recovery in household spending, which remains the key driver of growth despite global uncertainties. He noted that inflation could peak in October at around 5%, largely due to external cost pressures, before gradually easing in the second quarter of 2027. The expected decline is linked to a potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a possible drop in global oil prices.
The central bank views current inflationary pressures as largely supply-side driven, meaning interest rate increases would have limited effectiveness in addressing price rises. As a result, the Bank of Thailand does not see an immediate need to adjust the policy interest rate. However, the governor emphasized that monetary policy decisions will remain flexible, with authorities ready to reassess the situation if economic conditions change significantly. Despite concerns about inflation, the central bank is not currently worried about stagflation, though it will continue to closely monitor both growth and price stability.
On external trade, Thailand’s exports are projected to grow at a strong double-digit rate of around 12–13%, supported by improving global demand in key markets. The governor also addressed concerns over the current account deficit, describing it as a short-term situation driven primarily by higher oil imports rather than structural weaknesses in the economy. Overall, the Bank of Thailand maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook, pointing to resilient domestic demand and improving export performance as key factors supporting growth in the coming quarters.
