PATTAYA, Thailand – Krungthai Bank analysts are warning that the Thai baht could remain under pressure this week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and a strengthening US dollar continue to weigh on regional currencies.
Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS projects the baht to trade within a range of 31.85–32.65 baht per US dollar this week, while the near-term 24-hour range is expected between 32.15–32.45 baht per dollar. The baht opened trading on May 11 at 32.30 per dollar, weakening from last week’s close of 32.19.
Market analysts said the baht has gradually moved in a “sideways up” pattern, reflecting ongoing dollar strength and concerns surrounding uncertainty in ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran. Higher global oil prices have also added pressure on the Thai currency, particularly as Thailand remains heavily reliant on imported energy.
Investors are now closely watching developments surrounding possible US-Iran ceasefire talks, as well as an anticipated Trump-Xi summit that could influence wider market sentiment and trade relations between the United States and China.
Krungthai analysts noted that upcoming US inflation data and stronger-than-expected American corporate earnings could further support the US dollar, increasing downside risks for the baht in the short term.
Despite the weaker outlook, analysts said reduced foreign dividend payment flows this week — estimated at around 4 billion baht — may help limit sharper depreciation pressure on the currency.
Financial experts also warned that the baht remains exposed to “two-way risk,” meaning sudden swings in either direction remain possible depending on geopolitical developments and global investor sentiment. Businesses and investors are being advised to prepare for continued exchange-rate volatility as financial markets react to ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and global economic negotiations.
