BANGKOK, Thailand – The governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has warned that escalating conflict in the Middle East could have a modest but noticeable impact on Thailand’s economy, while indicating that policymakers stand ready to convene an emergency monetary policy meeting if conditions worsen.
Vitai Ratanakorn, governor of the Bank of Thailand, said the central bank is closely monitoring developments as the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve rapidly.
“The situation is changing all the time, so we must carefully assess how it may affect Thailand and to what extent,” he said.
Thailand, as a major oil-importing nation, could see some economic impact if energy prices rise. Preliminary assessments suggest the conflict may reduce Thailand’s GDP growth by around 0.1–0.2 percentage points, according to the central bank.
However, Vitai noted that the larger risk lies in inflation, as energy prices play a significant role in Thailand’s consumer price index.
Energy accounts for roughly 13% of the inflation basket, meaning any sustained rise in oil prices could quickly push inflation higher. Even so, Thailand’s inflation rate currently remains low, with full-year inflation projected at around 0.2–0.3%.
The governor said Thailand was fortunate that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had already taken precautionary steps earlier this year.
The committee voted to cut the policy interest rate on February 25, 2026, partly in anticipation of geopolitical risks following a brief 12-day conflict in the region last year.
If the conflict intensifies or drags on, the central bank stands ready to introduce additional measures to stabilize the economy.
“If necessary, we can call a special meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee,” Vitai said.
He added that Thai commercial banks are also expected to have support measures ready for customers should economic pressures increase.
Much will depend on the trajectory of global oil prices. If the conflict escalates significantly, crude prices could potentially climb toward $100 per barrel, though the governor stressed it is still too early to determine whether that scenario will materialize.
Despite the uncertainty, Vitai emphasized that Thailand’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong.
The country maintains a solid economic buffer, including high international reserves relative to external debt, which helps shield the financial system from volatility and capital outflows.
Thailand also holds strategic oil reserves sufficient for around 60 days, while additional supplies could be sourced from alternative markets if necessary.
