BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand’s rice export outlook is deteriorating as global supply rises sharply, led by record production in India, prompting industry leaders to warn that Thai rice shipments in 2026 could fall to their lowest level in five years.
According to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, rice exports in January 2026 totaled 530,287 tons, a drop of 17.5% year-on-year. Export value fell even more sharply, down 23.9% to USD 313 million, reflecting intensifying price competition in the global market.
Association president Charoen Laothamatas said the first half of the year is expected to remain sluggish, mainly due to a surge in global rice production. India, the world’s largest exporter, is forecast to produce a record 152 million tons, overtaking China’s estimated 145–146 million tons and cementing its position as the dominant supplier. Vietnam and Pakistan are also expected to post solid output.
While Thailand’s own production outlook has improved thanks to near-full reservoir levels, Charoen warned that rising supply without a matching pace of exports could eventually pressure domestic rice prices.
Honorary association president Chookiat Ophaswongse pointed to the strong baht as a key factor undermining competitiveness. With the currency trading around 31 baht to the U.S. dollar—compared with an export-friendly level of 33–34—each one-baht appreciation raises Thai rice prices by an estimated USD 12–15 per ton. As a result, Thai rice is currently about USD 40 per ton more expensive than a year ago.
Additional headwinds include reduced imports by major buyers. Indonesia, which typically imports close to four million tons annually, has suspended rice imports this year, while the Philippines has shifted to monthly purchasing. Possible new U.S. trade measures could also affect Thai jasmine rice exports to the American market. Meanwhile, concerns are mounting over a potential return of El Niño, which could bring drought and disrupt future harvests.
Global figures from the United States Department of Agriculture show world rice production for the 2025/26 season is projected at around 541 million tonnes (milled basis). India is expected to export 25 million tons, up 15.2%, followed by Vietnam at 7.9 million tons, while Thailand ranks third with an estimated 7.2 million tons—down 8.4%.
The association urged the government to stabilize the exchange rate in the short term to protect export competitiveness. Over the longer term, it called for structural reforms to the rice sector, including developing market-oriented rice varieties, boosting yields per rai, and lowering production costs, rather than relying on subsidies.
Without such changes, industry leaders warn that Thai rice risks losing further ground in an increasingly competitive global market. (TNA)
