Bt100bn circulation estimated during Thai New Year

Thailand’s traditional New Year, Songkran, is projected to result in over Bt100 billion (over US$3.3 billion) in circulation, according to a survey by the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

Thanawat Polvichai, director the UTTC Business Forecasting Center, on Wednesday told a news briefing that the upcoming festival was likely to be the liveliest Songkran celebration in the past five years- since 2008- as spending is forecast to rise to Bt103 billion or a 7.1 percent rise, year-on-year.

As a result of the 40 percent minimum-wage hike and the recovering economy, Thai celebrants are expected to spend more money on parties and celebrations.

Thanks to the long Songkran festival, the center’s director predicted that some holidaymakers would travel up-country to relax after the 2011 mega-flood.

However, some of survey respondents who remained worried about the higher goods and oil prices as well as the slow pace of economic recovery said that they plan to observe the holiday at home with family members and would spend carefully.

Meanwhile, spending on alcoholic beverages during Songkran was forecast to increase to Bt900 per person from Bt700 per person, compared to last year.

Regarding the car bombing at a hotel in Hat Yai, Dr Thanawat said that the devastating incident would not widely impact the overall economic outlook, explaining that the violence would only slightly affect the country’s economic expansion by 0.05-0.07 percent.

On the other hand, the explosion would directly impact the economy in Songkhla.

Hotel room occupancies were projected to fall by 40 percent with the number of hotel guests dropping by 10,000-15,000 persons, Dr Thanawat explained. He said that the damages amounted to Bt600-700 million ($20-23 million).

If there is no repeat of the violence, the Songkhla economy will recover in the next three months, the academic expected.

Meanwhile, Dr Thanawat also advised the government to control goods prices in the first half of the year to prevent rising inflation, saying the appropriate period for a goods price rise should be in the fourth quarter. (MCOT)
 

March inflation rises 3.45% year-on-year: Commerce Ministry

Thailand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 114.3 in March, an increase of 3.45 percent compared to the same period last year, Yanyong Phuangrach, permanent secretary for commerce said on Tuesday.

It is considered a slight increase as the economy is recovering and reflected a sound economy as a result of the government’s economic stimulus measures and the commerce ministry’s measures to watch over the prices of necessities.

The Consumer Price Index in the first three months was up 3.39 percent, compared to the same period in the previous year, while the March CPI was 0.59 percent higher compared to the previous month due to food and beverage prices rising by 0.66 percent in parallel with higher prices of eggs, dairy products and fresh fruit.

Hot and dry weather caused less produce for the market, while other non-food items were up 0.55 percent.

Increased civil servant salaries are likely to affect Thailand’s inflation rate by 0.01 percent and the daily minimum wage when it is fully implemented is likely to impact inflation only 0.1 percent. The average inflation for the whole year is projected to rise to 3.9 percent, higher than earlier targeted at 3.8 percent.

The Ministry of Commerce projects the average inflation in 2012 to stay at 3.3-3.8 percent. Global oil prices, the world economy, natural disasters, volatile currency exchange and interest rates remain risk factors. Taxi fares rising 12 percent and higher excise tax on air conditioners are likely to impact inflation by only 0.028 percent and 0.07 percent respectively.

However, the inflation rate in the second quarter is projected to stay at 3.5 percent, which is normal for improving economy with more spending.

The volume of farm produce will decrease in summer, causing prices of goods and energy to rise. The commerce ministry will delay any consumer goods price rise for the time being, particularly for food, to help people shoulder the burden of the higher cost of living.

The core consumer price index in March rose 2.77 percent year-on-year and 0.33 percent, compared to the previous month. (MCOT)
 

Bt100bn circulation estimated during Thai New Year

March inflation rises 3.45% year-on-year: Commerce Ministry