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Money matters
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Snap Shots
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Modern Medicine
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Heart to Heart with Hillary
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Let’s go to the movies
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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Will there be a slow grind back to normality? Part 2
What about currencies?
According to Scott Campbell, director of Midas Capital and a regular
speaker to AustCham on his visits through Bangkok in recent years finding the
“New Normal” may be some time off.
“The US dollar has been a great indicator of risk sentiment and risk trades
lately. Risk appetite in the US dollar disappeared from 2002 until mid last year
and was reflected by a prolonged weakening trend in the index. Then, from mid
2008, with leverage and borrowed dollars needing to be repaid, the US$ index
snapped back from 72 levels to 90 - a 25% move up. However, since mid-March the
US$ index has retraced half these gains back to current 80 levels.
“The high yield currencies and high beta emerging market/resource dominated
currencies have been a key driver of the recent ‘return of risk’ and this has
not been fully expressed in the US$ index as it is dominated, with the exception
of the Canadian dollar, by the major cross rates of the euro/yen and GBP.
Weakness in these high yield or high beta currencies must be watched closely for
profit taking opportunities in other asset class trades,” Scott added.
This implies that the USD may be due for a short term rally with the AUD, NZD
and Canadian dollar set to fall. Longer term, Asian currencies such as the Thai
baht look more promising. It has to be said that many analysts don’t share
Scott’s view, believing that commodity-based economies and currencies will
strengthen as they are seen to be the necessary building blocks of a global
recovery. However, back in November 2007, Scott was also in the minority
forecasting correctly that oil would double to over US$80 per barrel. Later in
June 2008, when Goldman Sachs predicted oil could reach US$200 per barrel,
Scott’s view was to sell at US$130. The price of oil subsequently plunged below
US$50.
Again in June 2008, at an AustCham seminar, Scott predicted that the US$, which
he considered hugely oversold at the time, was due for a rebound. Subsequently
the Greenback moved up over 35% against the Australian currency. As a result,
Scott’s views should be taken rather more seriously than most forecasts which
tend to end up disappointingly wide of the mark.
How will it all pan out?
A fundamental debate taking place in the financial sector is whether
the global economy will see the emergence of deflation or runaway inflation in
the near future. However, according to one multi strategy hedge fund, Arrowglass
Capital Partners, the whole debate is worthless as they believe there is a good
chance that both scenarios are wrong. In a recent newsletter the fund said,
“Whilst the faster reaction of western authorities in undertaking aggressive
easing of both monetary and fiscal policy has headed off the worst of deflation,
experiences in Japan and the Depression have shown the creation of central bank
money does not necessarily lead to inflation until many years down the track. A
long sub-par recovery is the most likely outcome with loose monetary policy and
zero inflation.”
The immediate issue, though, is how and when governments will exit stimulus
commitments and packages and what will happen when they do. In the same way that
Nicole Kidman has often outshone many illustrious names in Hollywood, it seems
that the Australian Government may take the spotlight in this drama.
Perhaps the final word should be left to Scott Campbell, who at the start of
September, summed up the situation this way, “They don’t call it the lucky
country for nothing, and not only has Australia dodged a technical recession by
posting first quarter growth, its second quarter number - a positive 0.6%
expansion of the economy - is double most estimates. Aussie GDP growth has been
rising 2-4% pa since 2004 and inflation muted at less than 3% over the same time
frame. Unemployment has risen from 4% to 6% over the past couple of years, which
is slightly alarming but nothing compared to the US and UK levels currently
being experienced.
“The lucky country is most likely to be one of the first to show how (or how
not) to unwind the fiscal stimulus of the past year. Federal Treasurer Wayne
Swan bluntly told markets that without government stimulus the economy would
definitely be in recession and then stated, or warned, that the government would
begin to remove the support in the fourth quarter. Action on this point in the
US or Europe is some way off so Mr Swan will be somewhat of a guinea pig for the
rest of the west to watch and see… Ominously, the stronger the economic data,
the closer the withdrawal of the stimulus punch bowl gets and this is enough to
unsettle most investors.”
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Passing of a local photographer
I lost one of my photographic friends last week. Ernie Kuehnelt died
after a short battle with cancer. Ernie was one of those quiet people
who stand in the background, not wishing to force their opinions or
themselves upon others. Ernie was a gentleman, in a world where
gentlemen are becoming rare. Now there is one less.
I met Ernie a few years ago and he, very hesitantly, showed me some of
his photographs. It was obvious that this was a man who had the
‘photographer’s eye’, and although untrained, was producing good
photographs. We discussed composition and selective cropping, and it was
not long before Ernie arrived back in my office with some more shots.
This time the composition was better and some cropping had been done.
Ernie was now at that talented amateur level, whose photographs could
hold their own at any camera club level.
Ernie loved animals, and some of his cat pictures I have featured before
in this column, but he produced many fine photographs of cats and even
fish. Subjects that, for me at least, are just too frustrating. But
Ernie, being retired, had the time and the patience, and taught me the
trick of rattling a box of matches to make a dog’s ears stand up.
Ernie made the transition from film to digital before I did, and even
loaned me his camera for me to try the ‘new’ technology. We even did
back to back comparisons between my film Nikon and his digital one.
It was Ernie who advised me to keep a plastic shower cap in my camera
bag. Takes up no space and can protect the camera in the rain.
As a tribute to my photographic friend who has gone to the great
darkroom in the sky, I have reprinted some of Ernie’s photographs.
Ernie Kuehnelt
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Itchy bottoms and itchy scalps
“Daddy, I’ve got an itchy bottom,” said Miss Five. “Me too,”
said Mister Four. And the reason? Enterobius vermicularis. This was a week
after “Itchy head Daddy,” which was Pediculosis Capitis.
Let’s look into the itchy bottom first. There are some people with strong
maternal urges, but other than from a card carrying masochist, I doubt very
much that anyone would be stepping forward as the maternal volunteer of
Enterobius! That being the case, you have to pity poor old Enterobius
vermicularis, otherwise known as the pinworm. This little fellow comes out
of its egg and lives for six weeks only, and at the end of its time,
releases 10,000 - 15,000 eggs and dies, its life’s work over.
So why should this little worm be of interest to us? Quite simply - you’ve
either got it, or you’ve had it. That’s the statistics. Virtually all
children will have been infected by the time they reach high school, and at
any one time, 50 percent of all children in the 5-10 year age groups will be
harbouring the little worms. Another good reason to stay away from small
children!
So how do you know if your children are currently harbouring a host of
pinworms? There are various tests that can be done, from microscopic stool
examinations to the simple sticky tape test around the anus which picks up
eggs and the occasional wriggling worm itself. However, just as we routinely
“worm” the family cat and dog, you can routinely “worm” the children. Single
shot mebendazole works well, but you have to repeat the “worming” two to
three weeks later to pick up the newly hatched eggs, since the eggs
themselves are not affected by the drug.
There are also many other worms that like us. They all have wonderfully
exotic sounding names, for some very much non-exotic creatures. There is
Ascaris lumbricoides, the human roundworm and Ancylostoma duodenale, the
hookworms. There is also Ancylostoma braziliense, a cat and dog worm whose
larvae can penetrate human skin and grow slowly under the top layer
producing cutaneous larva migrans, a creeping skin rash. This one is often
seen in beach volleyball players known colloquially as “sandworms”. And you
thought beach volleyball was a safe sport!
Then there’s my favourite - Strongyloides stercoralis, the human threadworm!
“Step this way and see the amazing Strongyloides bring a grown man to his
knees!” Yes, a super-infection of Strongyloides can be fatal as the worms
invade all the tissues of the body producing meningitis, pneumonia and
septicaemia.
It doesn’t stop there either, as there is Taenia saginata and Taenia solium,
the tapeworms, to be considered too, and their baby brother Hymenolepsis
nana, the dwarf tapeworm.
There’s many a peril underfoot, as that is the way that many of these worms
get into our bodies - through walking on larval forms with bare feet. And
you thought that crossing the street was dangerous.
The other classical way is to ingest the egg forms which can be on
vegetables that have been fertilized with infected faeces. Hence the
warnings about eating salads at the side of the road. Cooked is OK, but
beware the unwashed vegetables.
So if you have been having some intestinal pain, some diarrhoea and itching
around the anus, it just might be a worm infestation. How do you check - see
your doctor, there are tests that can be done directly and sometimes via the
blood, but you won’t diagnose this one by yourself, unless you meet the worm
face to face.
And oh yes, worms are very common in tropical climates, though unless they
are good swimmers, they’ve probably drowned in our current wet season by
now!
Compared to that lot, the just as common head lice (Pediculosis Capitis) are
not romantic in any way whatsoever. The lice thrive in the scalp and then
lay their eggs along the shaft of the hairs. A simple anti-head lice shampoo
gets rid of the live ones, and then you repeat the process a week later to
get rid of the hatchlings. In the meantime, iron your pillow slips!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I have a local bar that I frequent and like many expat bars in Thailand, there
appears to be an endless supply of young ladies to keep one company. During a
rainstorm the other evening, one young thing told me that her apartment roof
leaked so I took pity on her and gave her some dry shelter for the evening. Now
when I drop in for a chat and a gargle on a coldie, all the girls rush off and
get Miss Lasnite Leekiroof, and I seem to be stuck with her. She is a nice
enough sort of girl, but this cramps my style, and not what I want in my local
bar, where I want to be footloose and fancy free. How do I get to play the field
again, Miss Hillary?
Will
Dear Will,
You must have heard that where there’s a ‘will’ there’s a way. Your problem is
very easy to fix. You have to show that you are a strong independent player. So
you want to get back to playing the field. Easy! All you need to do next time
you pop down for a quick cold beer is to tell Miss Lasnite Leekiroof, when the
other girls push her in your direction, that you would actually like to talk to
her sister Miss Neksnite Leekiroof, and here’s a 100 baht if she will bring her
over to you and make the introduction. I think you will find that 100 baht
introduction fee should be enough to mend her broken heart, or to stuff into the
cracks in the leaking roof.
Dear Hillary,
I feel I am joining the band of women who are complaining about their maids. At
any functions I go to, the discussions are all the same, what the maid has done
this week! I will admit that I do not speak very much Thai and my maid speaks
even less English, but surely if she wants to be a maid for English speaking
people, should I not get someone who can communicate? I did not choose the maid
as she was supplied by my husband’s company and this is my first experience with
domestic staff.
I could go on for hours about the way she refuses to use hot water for the
dishes, will wash everything in the same sink, will use the dish cloth to wipe
the floor. I am sure you have heard it all before. She also does weird things
like leaving clothes out in the lounge room for a day, rather than putting them
away. Why? Is this some special Thai ‘sign’ to tell me something? Routine
cleaning and dusting seems to be beyond her and I have to tell her to do these
simple tasks every time. She also tries to leave before 6 p.m. and always comes
in late in the mornings, after 8 a.m. What can I do, Hillary?
Dora Despair
Dear Despairing Dora,
You know the problem, right from the start when you say that you do not speak
Thai and your maid does not speak English. No communication! Could your husband
get what he wants done if his secretary only speaks Urdu and he speaks Farsi?
Speak to your husband, if his company has supplied the poor woman. She probably
goes home and talks to her friends, all of whom are complaining about their
mistresses. However, how much does your maid get paid, my Petal? If you are only
paying a low salary, you cannot expect a household whiz who is also
multilingual. If she were that good she would be working as your husband’s
secretary, not as your 10 hours a day slave. If it all becomes too much, you can
always do the work yourself, as you did back home. Finally, as I have to remind
many foreigners, this is Thai-land and the inhabitants speak Thai. How many
maids in the English speaking world are multi-lingual?
Dear Hillary,
Why can nobody here spell? I have read your column for some months and notice
that you get angry, like I do, when people spell words incorrectly. This goes
particularly for place names and street signs, which are official signs, placed
by the municipality. There is no excuse for this as there are plenty of
Thai-English dictionaries in the shops. Should I send one to someone in
authority to make sure?
Spelling Bee
Dear Bee,
I’m sorry, my Petal, but I am not on your side. Sure I get annoyed at the poor
spellings, but that is for incorrect English spellings written by native English
speakers. They should know better and it is they that should have a dictionary.
Now getting back to street names, I am sure you must realize by now that the
English language has 26 letters, but Thai has 44 and a clutch of vowels. In
other words, you cannot take letters from one alphabet and put them exactly into
the other. When a Thai place name is written in English, it is a guesstimate of
how it will sound, when spoken by a native English speaker. This is why you will
see Chomthian, Jomthien or Jomtien. All of them are “correct”.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now
playing in Pattaya
Michael Jackson’s “This Is It:” A performance film drawn from
120 hours of rehearsal footage for the show Michael was working on at
the time of his death. It began playing world-wide on October 28, and
will be shown for two weeks only. That includes the SF Pattaya Beach
where it will be presented in high-definition Digital format.
This is a huge event in many cities throughout the world. In Bangkok by
the end of the first day of sale all tickets for the first showings
across Bangkok were sold-out. In London, the film sold more than 30,000
tickets in its first 24-hours of sale, setting the biggest ever one-day
sales record in the UK.
I’ve seen several short segments, and I think Michael Jackson looks
great and moves in a way that is a wonderment. I’m looking for this to
be a spectacular show with Michael at the top of his form, and an homage
to his life and musical genius.
Surrogates: US, Action/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – Set in a futuristic world
where humans live in isolation and interact through surrogate robots, a
cop (Bruce Willis) investigates the murder of the genius college student
who invented the surrogates. As the case grows more complicated, the
withdrawn detective discovers that in order to catch the killer he will
have to venture outside the safety of his own home for the first time in
many years, and enlists the aid of another agent (Radha Mitchell) in
tracking his target down. Jonathan Mostow directed this adaptation of
the graphic novel by author Robert Venditti and illustrator Brett
Weldele. Mixed or average reviews.
Haunted University / Mahalai Sayongkwan: Thai, Horror/ Thriller –
Based on various horror and ghost tales current in universities, the
film tells of students who encountered paranormal events that haunted
them in their university days, and their fight against their fears.
Slice / Cheuan: Thai, Crime/ Thriller – “Slice” as in “slicing up
your victims.” Sure enough, a string of homicides has occurred, and in
each case the body of the victim was sliced into pieces. The detective
on the case, desperately seeking the serial killer, releases from jail a
former assassin for help in finding some clues to the killer’s
identity. The film has created a stir because its blatant gore seems
designed to test the limits of the new movie grading system.
(18+)
Law Abiding Citizen: US, Drama/ Thriller – After his wife and child
are murdered by two criminals, Clyde Shelton (Gerard Butler) is informed
that one of the murderers will be sentenced to death but the other one
will get off because of his cooperation with the police. Shelton
decides to take justice into his own hands, including getting revenge on
the murderers as well as those in the system responsible for setting the
one murderer free. District Attorney Nick Rice (Jamie Foxx), one of
those who helped set the murderer free, tries to stop Shelton. Rated R
in the US for strong bloody brutal violence and torture, a scene of
rape, and pervasive language. In Thailand, 18+. Generally unfavorable
reviews.
District 9: South Africa/ New Zealand, Drama/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – I
enjoyed this; it’s got a bit of everything in it, and for me in a
satisfying mix. Aliens made first contact with Earth 28 years ago, the
nearly-dead survivors of an accident to their space craft over South
Africa. Rated R in the US for bloody violence and pervasive language;
15+ here. Generally favorable reviews.
Bangkok Traffic Love Story / Rot Fai Faa Ma Ha Na Tur (I Ride the
Skytrain to See You): Thai, Romance/ Comedy – A romantic comedy
about a 30 year old single woman who is suddenly forced to give up her
car and ride the Bangkok public transportation system, where she falls
for a maintenance engineer of the BTS system.
Killshot: US, Action/ Crime/ Thriller – Released on DVD last year,
but deserves a better fate. Filmed nearly four years ago, the
picture suffered through endless rounds of editorial indecision,
reshooting, and the embarrassment of a pathetic five-screen theatrical
release in the US earlier this year. Nevertheless, this film is mostly
a taut thriller and it’s ultimately Mickey Rourke who makes the film
worth watching. Rated R in the US for violence, language and brief
nudity. Mixed or average reviews.
Book of Blood: UK, Horror/ Mystery/ Thriller – The second story to
be adapted from highly-respected horror writer Clive Barker’s
collection. Based on a story now over two decades old, some of the
horrors Barker pioneered feel almost quaint. Rated R in the US for
bloody violence, sexuality/nudity and language.
Sorority Row: US, Horror/ Thriller – A group of sorority sisters try
to cover up the death of their house-sister after a prank gone wrong.
Rated R in the US for strong bloody violence, language, some sexuality/
nudity, and partying. Generally unfavorable reviews.
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