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Money matters
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Snap Shots
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Modern Medicine
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Heart to Heart with Hillary
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Let’s go to the movies
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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Will there be a slow grind back to normality? Part 1
The Dow Jones daily performance in
1929-1930 (top) and the market performance from March - July 31, 2009 (bottom).
Source: MBMG Group.
Very occasionally we experience events of such magnitude that
old paradigms, long accepted as stable, indisputable and perpetual are revealed
to be artificial and temporary.
As leading economic academic Nassim Taleb has observed, every once in a while
economies tend to produce ‘black swans’, not just white ones. We are not sure if
Mr Taleb has ever visited Western Australia where the abundance of black swans
has been a major tourist attraction for decades, but in terms of ‘black swan’
economies, the world has seen more than its share since June 2007.
In the wake of an unprecedented collapse in credit supply, equity markets and
real economies since 1929, many investors are now left holding considerably
devalued assets, and a ‘rule book’ that doesn’t seem to work anymore.
Governments across the globe have tended to respond by creating massive
liquidity but it’s unclear whether this tactic (which is often mistaken for a
long term strategy) will deliver any kind of long term stability.
In the last few months there has been a lot of optimism and hope expressed by
some commentators at what they see as the beginning of an apparent recovery.
However, it’s important to recognize key structural indicators in order to be
ready for the next scenes as they unfold in this global economic drama. This is
equally true in Thailand and Australia, although each economy will experience
its own challenges. Any careful observer of history will recall that in 1930
optimism had also returned to centre stage, with many blissfully ignorant of the
denouement that was to follow.
Centre Stage
The US economy, at the epicenter of this unfolding drama, has played
the leading role in most of the action so far.
US budget deficits are now a cause of extreme concern, even without the current
debates about spending on social security reforms which are expected to increase
substantially over the next 10 years. This, at a time when government forecasts,
and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), both foresee revenues being squeezed
by a slow return to economic growth.
The White House has projected a cumulative $9 trillion deficit between 2010 and
2019. This will nearly double the national debt from $11 trillion to close to
$20 trillion, lifting it from 48% of GDP to a projected 69% in 2019. In
Australia the news isn’t nearly so bad, but we should remember that America
remains the largest global economy and by an even greater margin the largest
global consumer. Bad news for consumers yesterday, is bad news for manufacturers
today and for suppliers and producers tomorrow.
US property news is also grim. Foreclosures on house loans have topped 1.5
million or 3% of the total market. But there is another 3.5 - 4 million house
loans considered ‘seriously delinquent’. Recent data from Lender Processing
Services indicates that newer loans, written since the sub-prime loans issue
emerged, have been defaulting at a higher rate than those written earlier.
Defaults on newly written loans in 2006 were running at 4.7 times the average.
In 2007 this climbed to 12.1 times average in 2007 and dropped back a little to
7.7 times the average in 2008. Increasing unemployment in the US is cited as the
principal cause of the spiraling defaults.
Unemployment - leading or following economic recovery?
While the employment situation in Australia has remained reasonably
benign and Thailand has witnessed increases from a very low base, in America
unemployment hit a 26 year high in August, rising to 9.7% and bringing the total
number of jobs lost since January 2008 to 6.9 million. The reality may be even
worse. Some observers have pointed out that change over the years in the
methodology of measuring unemployment data actually disguises official figures
by as much as 50% of what would have historically been recorded as unemployment.
Even with the new method of calculation, the unemployment rate amongst teenagers
has risen to a record high of 25.5%. Furthermore there are 9.1 million workers
limited to part time jobs, simply because they couldn’t find full time
positions. Many commentators argue that unemployment is a trailing indicator of
the health of the economy. However, this analysis is dependent upon the
existence of an inflationary economic environment. According to George Magnus,
at UBS Investment bank, in a deleveraging cycle the unemployment rate tells us
much more about the underlying capacity and willingness of the household sector
to spend or save.
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Buying a new digital - Compact or SLR?
At some stage, when replacing an old camera (usually a film camera) with
a new digital, the question comes up - Compact or SLR? Unfortunately,
there is no simple answer, but the decision will come down to your
requirements, your budget and your aspirations as a photographer.
 Compact
First off, understand that both types can return sharp images, both can
boast the same number of pixels and both give the photographer an
‘instant’ record of the shot just taken.
However, there are some basic differences which should be understood
before going into the camera shop with a fully loaded credit card.
A Digital SLR (DSLR) has interchangeable lenses (with many to choose
from) while the compact has one attached lens, though some may have a
limited ‘zoom’ capability.
The DSLR has a TTL (Through The Lens) viewfinder - when you look through
the viewfinder of a digital SLR, you are seeing what the end result will
be. If the image is out of focus, the end result will be out of focus.
The compact has a viewfinder which is separate from the lens and does
not necessarily show exactly the final image that will be recorded.
Does size matter? The DSLR has a large camera body while the compact can
be slipped into a shirt pocket.
The DSLR can use an external flash unit, while very few compacts have
this feature.
Finally, DSLR’s can be run fully manual as well as various automatic
modes, while most compacts are automatic only.
 DSLR
So let’s try and assist you in making the decision, and look at what
features you really need and what features are not really totally
necessary, but just “nice” to have.
Let’s look first at lenses. If the type of photographs you want to take
involves wildlife, or extreme close-ups, then you have to go DSLR which
is designed to allow for changes in lenses, and will have a complete
range of lenses for you to choose from. However, you must always factor
in the cost of the additional lenses. The compact will usually have a
small zoom ability, but nothing like the extremes a DSLR can achieve.
Some compacts will also boast that they have screw-on attachments to
give you a wide angle image. Forget it, the quality of the final image
just isn’t there.
The next item to consider is ease of use. If all you want to do is take
candid snaps while walking around the neighborhood, then you certainly
do not need a heavy, bulky DSLR camera swinging around your neck, but
you need a good quality small compact that slips in a pocket. However,
be careful that it doesn’t slip out of the pocket on to the ground. No
camera is indestructible. With the auto compacts, controls are simple
(though limited), while the DSLR can do much in the creativity field,
but you will have to get used to drop-down menus and 100 page
instruction books. Ease of use is compact all the way.
Is the type of photography you want to pursue taking shots at night, be
that time exposures or people candids? If so, then forget the compact
ranges. Sure, they all have a tiny built-in flash these days, which will
illuminate anything within two meters from you. If you want to be able
to light up the other side of the moon, then it is a DSLR, as these
cameras can take off-camera flash guns. The DSLR also has extended range
time exposure ranges over any compact.
Is action photography your bag? Then forget the compact ranges - you
need greater control over the final image, and that means a DSLR with
the ability to control shutter speeds and depth of field. A medium
length lens will also help.
Finally, if you still can’t make the fateful decision between DSLR or
compact - just get both. There are times when both are needed, and you
will be ready!
However, do not forget that good photographs are made by the
photographer - not by the type of camera!
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Five-star treatment is just what the doctor ordered
The heading this week is not one I wrote, but was one that
followed a trip to Thailand by Lisa Stubbs, one of Australia’s accredited
women journalists.
She wrote, “The Bangkok Hospital Pattaya is a world away from Australia’s
overcrowded emergency departments, long waiting lists for specialist
consultations and surgery, and the general malaise of the national health
system.
“And, as Australians see a falling standard of health care - coupled with
rising private medical insurance premiums - medical tourism to Thailand is
bridging the ever-increasing gap between the cost and the level of service
available in Australia.”
I think we all fall into the trap of becoming so used to the facilities in
Thailand, that we forget what is the norm in the countries we came from. And
before I get accused of comparing apples and oranges, I acknowledge that I
work in a private hospital, but when we discuss medical tourism for cosmetic
procedures, these operations have to be privately funded overseas, carried
out in private hospitals and are far more expensive than in Thailand by
about a factor of around 300 percent.
Even with procedures that can be carried out in the public hospital arena
overseas, the waiting lists are so long that you die before you get to the
top of it. And of course you had to put up with the pains in your knees and
hips while waiting for your knee or hip replacement surgery.
In an even more amazing medical situation, Thailand (and Bangkok Hospital
Pattaya in particular) has treatments not even available overseas. This
covers the SuperSight surgery which one publication in the UK described as
the “bionic eye”, which would be available in the UK within five years. Why
wait? You can get it done tomorrow!
SuperSight is for those over 50 and using spectacles to read this article.
Do you hate your reading glasses? If so, keep them on and keep reading, help
is at hand!
Unfortunately, the need for reading glasses is a natural progression of
aging. The first signs are the fact that you have to hold this newspaper
further away to be able to read it, and you also find that you need a good
light to be able to see the words clearly. Eventually you run out of arms,
and you succumb and buy reading glasses. This means that you have become a
slave to your spectacles! Eventually your nose gets funny indentations
either side of the bridge, where the spectacles settle.
Why does this happen? As you get older, all the ‘elastic’ tissues in your
body become less pliable. Knees, lower back, fingers, neck, the list is
endless. However, you have to add to that list, the lens in your eye. You
now need an intraocular lens (IOL) .SuperSight is the latest development in
IOL’s with a focusable lens. With these lenses you can read your golf
scorecard with your near vision, focus on the ball on the tee with your
intermediate vision and then using your distance vision watch it gently
arcing into the water hazard. (These new IOL’s can improve your sight, but
not your golf, I am afraid.) We also have Dr. Somchai Trakoolshokesatian who
practices at the Bangkok Hospital Pattaya, who is one of the world leaders
in inserting these new lenses.
Testimonials such as the following are received almost daily. British
tourist Michael Bailey heard about the revolutionary SuperSight surgery and
wondered if it could improve the poor sight he had suffered for most of his
life.
“I asked when it would be possible to have the operation carried out, and he
told me that I could be accommodated later that day,” said Mr Bailey, who
now has better than 20/20 vision following the surgery.
“The upshot was that within four hours of first meeting the surgeon I was
having the operation, completed in about one and a half hours from start to
finish, all under local anesthetic.
“The treatment included an overnight stay in one of the nicest suites I have
ever had the privilege to stay in, with the nursing aftercare second to none
- I’d say the best money I have ever spent.”
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I am a young man, single and all the girls tell me I am good looking. My problem
comes from one of the girls I met in one of the bars. She rang me at work the
other day and asked if I could come over and see her as she was at a new bar she
was working in and wanted to see me. I did remember her from her previous bar
but the thing was I was embarrassed as I could be overheard by my workmates when
I was talking to her, so I just kind of fobbed her off. How can I tell her it
isn’t a good idea to ring me at work in a crowded office? Any suggestions?
James
Dear James,
You young chaps continue to amaze me with your stupid blunders! It’s quite
simple; if you don’t want a girl to ring you at work, then don’t give her your
work telephone number, Petal! If you feel the desperate need to chat her up on
the phone just give her your mobile and tell her what hours to ring you between.
The girl isn’t silly, she’ll comply. But will you? That’s the question.
Dear Hillary,
The estranged wife of one of my husband’s friends will be coming to visit
Pattaya next month, along with a couple of her girl friends. This will be her
first trip to Thailand, and I think the first for her girlfriends as well. They
would all be in their 50’s, and I was shocked when they wrote and said they
wanted to see a “sex show” while they are here. Do you think it’s proper for me
to take them to some of the more outrageous places, or what? My husband thinks
it is a huge joke, but I’m really blown away by all this. What do you recommend,
Hillary?
Shocked
Dear Shocked,
There is nothing to worry about, my dear. Everybody knows we don’t have sex
shows in Thailand. The nice policeman told me so. If you’re really worried, get
your husband to take them. It sounds as if he knows his way around, even if you
don’t, though I get the sneaking suspicion that you do know where the “more
outrageous places” are to be found.
Dear Hillary,
You are always telling people that they should learn Thai if they are living
here for some time. I agree with you, that it certainly makes life a lot easier
if you can communicate with the locals. I have retired here, but at my age (72),
I find it very difficult to learn a new language at my time in life. Is there
any quick way of doing this, or do you have any special tips for people trying
to learn this Thai language?
Robert
Dear Robert,
You are correct that life becomes easier if you can talk to people. You don’t
need to have philosophical discussions, but “Where is the closest gas station?”
asked in Thai will get you better answers, that’s for sure. My Petal, it is a
problem I know, but if you are retired and not working, then there is one quick
(but none of them are easy) way to learn. It’s called Total Immersion and
Hillary’s language teacher friends all tell me it is the quickest. Go and stay
in a village up country in a little local hotel and put yourself into the
situation that you have to speak Thai or starve! I am told that in six weeks you
will have picked up reasonable Thai and you are on your way to complete mastery
of the tongue. You will also probably have picked up a small language teacher.
Lots of luck and “Choke dee, Kha”.
Dear Hillary,
We like to go to the beach every Sunday with the mother-in-law and the kids, but
our day is always spoiled by the never ending stream of beach vendors all trying
to sell bolts of material, food, sunglasses, inflatable toys, model airplanes,
massages or nail polish. What can be done about them? Surely the person in
charge of the area could tell them to go, but it doesn’t seem to stop them. Have
you had this problem, or any ideas on how to scare them away for once and for
all?
Browned off on the beach
Dear Browned off,
Yes, Petal, I have experienced this problem as has everyone who goes to the
popular beaches, and I agree with you. These vendors are a pest. However, if you
have transport, then select a beach further down towards Bang Saray, Rayong way
or stake a place on Chiang Mai beach (after you find it). The vendors can’t
trudge that far. Mind you, there’s nobody to bring you an ice-cold beer either!
Dear Hillary,
I read your colum (sic) for years, so you must be very old by now. Is that why
we never see you at funcshuns (sic)? You’re just so old and rinkly (sic) that
nobody would want you there? If I’m wrong how about putting a picture of you
with this letter?
Rinkles
Dear Rinkles,
Yes Petal, I am old, and old enough to have learned how to spell. Just where
were you during English lessons? But I do love “funcshuns”. Never mind, they’ll
let you into “funcshuns” after you grow up.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Special Note, October
28: Michael Jackson’s “This Is It,” a performance tape of rehearsal
footage for the show Michael was working on at the time of his death, is
being presented world-wide on October 28, for two weeks only. That
includes the SF Pattaya Beach where it will be shown in high-definition
Digital format. Tickets are on sale now. In other cities, many
showings are already sold out.
I’ve seen several short segments, and I think Michael looks great and
moves in a way that is a wonderment. I have my ticket and am really
looking forward to it. From what I have seen, it will be a spectacular
show with Michael at the top of his form, and an homage to his life.
Now playing in Pattaya
Law Abiding Citizen: US, Drama/ Thriller – After his wife and
child are murdered by two criminals, Clyde Shelton (Gerard Butler) is
informed that one of the murderers will be sentenced to death but the
other one will get off because of his cooperation with the police.
Shelton decides to take justice into his own hands, including getting
revenge on the murderers as well as those in the system responsible for
setting the one murderer free. District Attorney Nick Rice (Jamie
Foxx), one of those who helped set the murderer free, tries to stop
Shelton. Rated R in the US for strong bloody brutal violence and
torture, a scene of rape, and pervasive language. In Thailand, 18+.
Generally unfavorable reviews.
Bangkok Traffic Love Story / Rot Fai Faa Ma Ha Na Tur (I Ride the
Skytrain to See You): Thai, Romance/ Comedy – A romantic comedy
about a 30 year old single woman who is suddenly forced to give up her
car and ride the Bangkok public transportation system, where she falls
for a maintenance engineer of the BTS electric train system.
Surrogates: US, Action/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – Set in a futuristic world
where humans live in isolation and interact through surrogate robots, a
cop (Bruce Willis) investigates the murder of the genius college student
who invented the surrogates.
The Hangover: US/ Germany, Comedy – A Las Vegas-set comedy about a
bachelor party gone very wrong. Three friends lose their
about-to-be-wed buddy during their drunken misadventures, then must
retrace their steps in order to find him. A clever script and hilarious
interplay among the cast. Rated R in the US for pervasive language,
sexual content including nudity, and some drug material. Generally
favorable reviews.
Echelon Conspiracy: US, Action/ Mystery/ Thriller – Shane West in
this Big-Brother-informed noir-mystery nightmare. Lightweight yet
complexly conspiratorial, the film takes inspiration from the vast array
of paranoia thrillers of yesteryear. Some of it shot in Bangkok.
Generally unfavorable reviews. In English and a Thai-dubbed version.
The Ugly Truth: US, Comedy/ Romance – The consensus seems to be
that, despite the best efforts of Gerard Butler and Kathrine Heigl, this
film suffers from a weak script, with little charm or comedic payoff.
Rated R in the US for sexual content and language; 18+ here. Generally
unfavorable reviews.
Killshot: US, Action/ Crime/ Thriller – Released on DVD last year,
but deserves a better fate. Filmed nearly four years ago, the
picture suffered through endless rounds of editorial indecision,
reshooting, and the embarrassment of a pathetic five-screen theatrical
release in the US earlier this year. Nevertheless, this film is mostly
a taut thriller and it’s ultimately Mickey Rourke who makes the film
worth watching. Rated R in the US for violence, language and brief
nudity. Mixed or average reviews.
Book of Blood: UK, Horror/ Mystery/ Thriller – The second story to
be adapted from horror writer Clive Barker’s collection. Based on a
story now over two decades old, some of the horrors Barker pioneered
feel almost quaint. Rated R in the US for bloody violence,
sexuality/nudity and language.
Sorority Row: US, Horror/ Thriller – A group of sorority sisters try
to cover up the death of their house-sister after a prank gone wrong.
Rated R in the US for strong bloody violence, language, some sexuality/
nudity and partying(!) Generally unfavorable reviews.
G-Force: US, Action/ Adventure/ Family – A pleasant, inoffensive
animated farce about a team of superspy guinea pigs, with non-stop manic
action. Mixed or average reviews.
Phobia 2 / Haa Phrang: Thai, Horror – A five-part horror anthology
by five different Thai directors. I’m rather fond of it and think it’s
well worth checking out if you at all like Thai horror films.
The Sanctuary / Sam Pan Bohk: Thai, Action – Martial arts movie
starring Pairote “Mike B” Boongerd, as a descendent of an ancient race
of warrior palace guards, sworn to protect a royal treasure. In Thai
and English. At Big C only.
Oh My Ghosts / Hortaewtak 2: Thai, Comedy/ Horror – Usual Thai
comedy featuring popular Thai comedians. Three companions in garish
drag are frightened by horrible ghosts that haunt their dorm. At Big C
only.
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