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Money matters
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Snap Shots
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Modern Medicine
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Heart to Heart with Hillary
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Let’s go to the movies
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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald MBMG International Ltd.
Is this a Recession or a Depression?
Since the end of the Second World War, the major force that
has driven the American economy has been consumer spending and its seemingly
never ending ability to keep on going through all economic ups and downs.
How was this done? The Truman years saw the beginning of post-war revival as
people had saved money during the war. Then, in the 1950s, after the Korean War,
Americans were back at work without having to think about war for the first time
in over a decade. They created families and homes which meant spending money.
The US was also the biggest lender on the planet as well as the biggest exporter
and manufacturer.
Then things started to go down hill. Complacency set in. Also, this was not
helped by the government in the early 1970s getting rid of gold backing for the
US dollar. Just over ten years later, America was no longer a net creditor to
the rest of the world, it was a net debtor. Fifteen years ago, the US consumer
was actually spending more than they earned and over the last ten years they
have not bothered to save anything at all.
What is different this time is that the consumer is not spending, he is spent.
Even in a recession, they continue to buy. Okay, the economy needs a bit of time
to recover but this soon happens. Mainly, this was due to the central
governments trying to encourage the end user to spend no matter what. This was
achieved by easier credit. Each time it worked thus driving the consumer into
more and more debt - which is why the financial companies boomed and got more
and more greedy as they compiled bigger and bigger debts.
This time though, things are different. Governments have a new answer - almost
zero interest rates and building up central debts of 13 trillion US dollars. The
problem though is that the end users already have everything they want and are
still trying to pay for it. The only way they can do this is not to spend any
more money on anything. Put another way, this is not a quick dip in the cycle of
growing consumer demand and debt (recession) but a complete reverse of the cycle
as there is no more consumer demand, less debt which implies more savings -
where possible (depression).
Assuming this does happen then the price of assets will continue to fall as will
bond prices. Stocks and shares will come down to levels where they look
reasonable. Decent companies should have P/E ratios of between 5 and 14 and the
dividends should be more than five percent.
However, Caveat Emptor! Beware what you buy as there will have been many changes
in the economy. For example, many retailers will have gone bust. The standard of
living in the West will have declined. The good news though is that many of the
people who got us into this mess will not be able to get a job in the financial
world again - let’s face it, they should never have had one. But why let facts
get in the way of prejudice. Short selling had little or nothing to do with
bringing financial institutions down. Banks supported by regulators and
governments created this mess through lax lending in pursuit of profit.
On top of this, the US Treasury department recently announced that net sales of
long term equities, notes and bonds totaled USD43 billion, compared with buying
of USD34.7 billion. Including short term securities such as stock swaps,
foreigners sold a net USD148.9 billion, after net buying of USD86.2 billion the
prior month. Is this the beginning of the end for US bailouts? Can capital be
raised? Will China start to sell?
Meanwhile Mexico put tariffs on USD2.4 billion of U.S. merchandise after
Congress suspended a program to allow some Mexican trucks to deliver goods
across the U.S. This is not the first time that Congress or the Obama
administration (buy American plan in the stimulus package) has showed signs of
protectionism. We expected this ugly genie to escape the bottle but not so
early. This too is a very bad sign.
The more that unfolds from this global financial crisis, the more some
economists say that we may be in the early stages of an economic catastrophe
rather than a recession. I would not go that far but it is a depression and not
a recession.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]@mbmg-international.com.comm.com.com
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Shooting movies
 Video
is becoming more popular every day. Have a look in the window of a
camera shop and you will find as many video cameras as there are still
cameras. In addition, many still digital cameras also have a video
capability as do many camera phones these days, so there is probably
just as much video work being done as still.
The main difference between still and video lies in that still
photography freezes a moment in time, while video photography tells a
moving picture story.
For the still photographer it is a case of looking at the background and
then working out the best combination of shutter speed and aperture. For
the video photographer it is a case of working out the story line and
then how to shoot the various elements in the story.
One of the ways you can pick the first time video user is the fact that
the camera operator spends much time taking shots of still subjects.
Having not made the mental adjustment from still photography, many
minutes are taken up with a video of his wife standing by the front door
of the hotel. That was a ‘still’ shot. With video, you film your wife
checking out at the cashier’s desk, picking up her bags and walking
towards the exit. Then you rush outside and the next footage is her
coming out of the hotel and hailing a taxi. You have just shot a living
‘story’.
So where can you go to ‘learn’ this new art? Just as still photographers
have photographs in books and magazines to study, the video photographer
has a very ready source of informative examples to scrutinize. This is
called TV! Sit down in front of the goggle box and see how the pros do
it. Even the dreadful Thai soap operas have good cinematic technique,
despite the glaringly obvious story line! So start to look critically at
technique. Where was the camera, relative to the subject? Did they
“zoom” in or was it one far shot and another close up to follow? How
many times did the cameraman actually use the inbuilt zoom? You may be
amazed to see how seldom!
Here are a few more “rules” which can help you produce better video.
Firstly, no rule is absolute, but you should have a good reason to break
it. Having said that, let’s look at a few basics.
You should shoot people in full or three-quarter profile to let the
viewers see both eyes. The one eyed effect does not look good. Again,
look at TV. When two people are talking, the camera shoots over the
shoulder of person one to shoot the second person face-on to the camera.
When the first person replies, the shot is taken the other way, over the
shoulder of the second person. You can also take shots of the person who
is listening to the other speak. These are called ‘noddies’, because the
person will be nodding while listening to the other speaker.
When shooting people, place the subject’s eyes one-third down from the
top of the frame no matter the type of shot. It is that old rule of
thirds again. Dead central is boring!
Another shot to avoid is one with large distances between people. Again,
look at the soaps on TV. The people are really standing much closer than
they would in real life (in each other’s personal space in fact), but if
you have them a meter or so apart, you lose ‘contact’ in the video.
Focusing. This is a common problem with still cameras with Auto-Focus
(AF), and 99 percent of video cameras are AF too. The magic eye in the
camera focuses on a spot in the middle of the screen. When you are
filming a couple, if the magic dot is not on one of the people, they
will end up out of focus and the background perfectly sharp.
Application of these simple aspects of video photography will give you
(and those who watch your videos) a much better end product, and a much
more satisfying one for yourself to produce.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
H1N1 - a swine of a virus
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the H1N1
influenza epidemic had spread all over the world and had become a pandemic,
and as a result, people have gone into pandemonium mode and outright panic.
It is time to put the record straight.
Firstly, a little history, old and new, on this current “novel” H1N1 virus,
which has gone from being a not very virulent virus to now having become an
‘industry’.
In 1918, the developed world had just finished WWI (the war to end all
wars!), and had successfully killed 15 million of its population and wounded
another 21 million. The war was followed by an influenza epidemic, which
struck the weakened population. This was the Spanish Swine Flu of 1918-1919
and it managed to kill around 50 million people world-wide. It was of the
H1N1 type. It was highly contagious, and very virulent and killed somewhere
between 10-20 percent of those who contracted the influenza. That’s one in
five - that is virulent.
The Spanish H1N1 also wiped out whole pig farms, but the pigs got a bum rap,
as they caught the virus from us, not the other way round. The mode of
transmission was droplet infection via the air, before you ask.
The next time the piggy tried to get revenge was in 1950, but the virus was
not very virulent but the authorities kept some H1N1 in the laboratory for
further studies later. We were safe as it was under lock and key.
However, the next notable emergence of Swine Flu was in 1976 at the American
outpost of Fort Dix. This was again an H1N1, but was different from the 1950
variety. The US government of the day immediately instituted a mass
vaccination program, which resulted in 40 million civilian vaccinations and
532 cases of the Guillain–Barré syndrome (a rare side effect of influenza
vaccination), including 32 deaths.
Then came another outbreak in 1977, but this was again a different strain
from the Fort Dix one, but it was identical to the one that had been locked
away in 1950. This finding suggested that the 1977 re-emergence was a well
orchestrated breakout by the virus, or more probably an accidental release
from a laboratory. We were soiling our own pig pen again!
And so we come to today, where H1N1 “Swine Flu” is on everyone’s lips. Every
day the newspapers have a running total of the numbers of people infected
with H1N1 and the cumulative total of deaths attributed to the ‘pandemic’
virus. Nine in Thailand as I write this, but it will probably be more by the
time this is printed and published. However, do you know how many people die
in Thailand each year from the ‘ordinary’ seasonal flu? Around 200-300 at
last count. So should we be so worried?
Now where did this barrage of Swine Flu information come from? It came from
the WHO, that’s who. Let me assure you, with my journalist’s hat on, and not
my medical mask, journalists do not ring the WHO saying, “I’ve got a hole to
fill on page 2. Do you have any good diseases this week? Swine Flu, that
sounds great. That should do nicely. Thank you.”
No, the WHO began to inform the world, as it should, that there were the
indications of an influenza epidemic coming, and that when it had spread
through many countries it had reached the level of being a ‘pandemic’,
called “Level 6” in WHO-speak.
Unfortunately, the WHO did not tell the media that the danger of viral
infections has two requirements - how easily it passes from one host to
another and how lethal is the ensuing infection.
The ‘pandemic level 6’ only refers to the contagious nature of the virus and
H1N1 is certainly highly contagious. However, with only around 400 deaths in
the world from this Swine Flu virus, just how lethal is it, when the
seasonal flu kills 36,000 people each year just in the US alone? Simple
answer: not very lethal at all.
Returning to the Thailand situation, just how many cases have there been?
Quite frankly, we don’t know. Many cases never reach hospital, or are never
tested for H1N1. But the published numbers infected will be less than the
actual ones, for those and many, many other reasons. Having said that, the
number of deaths is reasonably accurate, and the nine represents one in 10
million of the population, where seasonal flu comes in at one in 250,000 of
the population.
Which one should you worry about most?
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
A delicate problem my dear, but one I am sure you will be capable of advising
not only me, as I am sure you have met this situation before. I am one of those
expats who spends two months overseas and then two months here. Like most expats
in my situation, you eventually end up with one steady girlfriend who you find
in your local bar and who looks after and cooks for you when you are here and
does whatever she wants when you aren’t here. Unfortunately, I have been having
a little daily dalliance when I’m in residence and although I thought neither
knew about the other, I know my cover has been blown at least in one direction.
The new one is now telling me that the old one has a Thai boyfriend who stays in
my condo while I am overseas, and even though I don’t have the ‘moral’ high
ground, this annoys me a lot, though I haven’t said anything - yet. One of my
drinking buddies says it’s not like that but just that Number 2 is trying to get
rid of Number 1, so that she can move in and take over. So, Hillary, what should
a man do under these circumstances? Number 2 seems to hold all the cards, but I
don’t want to be played like a sucker. Should I get a Private Eye to keep the
place under surveillance, or should I just have it out with Number 1? Do you
think Number 2 would contact Number 1 if I do nothing?
Bart
Dear Bart,
You certainly have caused yourself to have a problem, Petal. I also note that
you state that Number 1 is a “steady girlfriend who looks after and cooks when
you are here and does whatever she wants when you aren’t here.” “Does whatever
she wants,” Petal? Those are your words, yet when given an allegation by someone
who has a more than vested interest in the case that perhaps she is doing
something she wants, you are “annoyed a lot.” Three words come to mind here -
sauce, goose and gander. Or as they say here ‘som nam na’ (you are getting what
you deserve). If you hadn’t decided to slip away for your daily dose of
dalliance, as you put it, then you wouldn’t be feeling guilty and then trying to
shift that blame on to your girl and your paramour (oh, I love using some of
those old time words). You have to also remember that there is no love lost
between the bar girls when it comes to lining their piggy banks. This is what
they do for a living, Bart the Butterfly. So they will do everything in their
power to increase their monthly salary. You have placed yourself in the
situation, and really only you can get yourself out. You hope that by finding
out Number 1’s unfaithfulness you will be morally justified in kicking her out.
My suggestion is to rent the condo out for 12 months and say goodbye to both
Number 1 and Number 2 and grow up a little before you return.
Dear Hillary,
The girls in Thailand are all nice, but they certainly have a funny clothes
sense. They wear all these over-blouses and frills everywhere and the silly
platform sole shoes we threw away years ago. The layered look went out about at
least 10 years ago too. I thought they would have a much better dress sense than
the western women, but it seems that isn’t the case. Any idea why, Hillary?
Swinging Londoner
Dear Swinging Londoner,
We wear what feels best for us. Just as you do in England, even in swinging
London, though I haven’t heard that name for a while. I also get asked about the
shoes many times, Petal, but when you are only five foot two inches you need the
heels and platform soles to be able to keep the motorcycle upright at the
traffic lights. See, it’s easy when you take our different living situations
into account.
Dear Hillary,
Have you ever stopped to count where your letter writers come from? When I see
that the same problems crop up for all nationalities it is pretty amazing, when
you think about it. I’m from Australia and I can’t really complain. I come over
about three to four times a year, and I don’t look for the same girl as I don’t
want to settle down yet, but I always find someone nice to “take care you”. That
makes it so much easier than back in Aus, I can tell you, Hillary. If you look
twice at any Sheila down under you’ll either get a smack in the mouth or demands
for a wedding ring and all the trimmings. Don’t ever change.
Pete from Aus
Dear Pete from Aus,
I am so glad you are happy in the service, Petal, but I must admit I haven’t sat
down and worked out where all the readers come from, but it certainly is from
all over. When you say “the same problems crop up for all nationalities” just
shows how clever and industrious are the ladies in Thailand, that they have
learned to deal with multinationals! Yes, stay clear of the Australian
“Sheila’s” and spend your money up here - we need it!
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in
Pattaya
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince: US/ UK, Adventure/
Fantasy/ Mystery/ Romance – The latest and darkest Harry Potter episode,
the Sixth. Will it be the blockbuster the movie folk expect it to be?
Will it thrill us all? Early viewers say yes! But you must go see for
yourself. You know you will see it, sooner or later, don’t you?
As Harry Potter begins his 6th year at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and
Wizardry, he discovers an old book marked mysteriously “This book is the
property of the Half-Blood Prince” and begins to learn more about the
dark past of He Who Shall Not Be Named. And although the forces
of He Who Shall Not Be Named are growing, that’s not the only
hazard Harry, Ron, and Hermione have to contend with, as another sort of
fickle magic is in the air: teenage hormones.
They are saying that it’s a dazzlingly well-made film as Voldemort (…
oops! There I go again, naming him!) tightens his grip on both
the Muggle and wizarding worlds, and Hogwarts is no longer the safe
haven it once was. Indeed, the story heads for one major character’s
death at the end of Part Six, in preparation for the final awful
confrontation between Harry and archfiend Voldemort in the climactic
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows,” now being shot as a two-part
film, to be released November 2010 and July 2011. That’s the last,
maybe.
A Frozen Flower: Korea, Drama/ History/ Romance – Directed by Yu
Ha, A Frozen Flower is a visually stunning historical movie set
against the last days of Korea’s Goryeo Dynasty (late 14th Century), and
deals with the long homosexual love relationship between the king and
his chief bodyguard, the two played by Korea’s two top male stars. In
addition to much beautiful costuming, there is a lot of uncostumed sex –
and I do mean a lot of it! Although the homosexual relationship is at
the heart of the film, most of the seemingly endless sex is purely
heterosexual – lovingly and languidly photographed.
The film has been a huge hit in Korea. It’s basically a melodrama, with
scenes of epic grandeur, and I found it quite exciting and a thoroughly
enjoyable and intriguing movie. Excellent acting, excellent swordplay,
excellent directing. My highest recommendation.
District B13 Ultimatum: France, Action – The English language title
of the 2009 French action film, Banlieue 13 Ultimatum. It’s a
sequel to the acclaimed 2004 French action film Banlieue 13 which
was a notable success worldwide and is now something of a cult classic,
notable for its depiction of parkour in a number of stunt
sequences that were completed without the use of wires or computer
generated effects. Thai dubbed only/ no English subtitles.
Thick as Thieves / The Code: US/ Germany, Crime – A master thief
recruits a younger crook to help him steal two famous Faberge eggs from
an impenetrable vault in an effort to pull off one final job and repay
his debt to the Russian mob. With Morgan Freeman and Antonio Banderas.
Generally savagely poor reviews with a few which say it’s an OK
time-waster. In the rest of the world this went straight to DVD. Rated
R in the US for sexuality, language, and some nudity.
The Secret of Moonacre: Hungary/ UK, Adventure/ Family/ Fantasy – A
pleasingly old-fashioned fairy tale, probably just perfect if you happen
to be an 11-year-old girl. By the Hungarian director and animator Gabor
Csupo, who gave us Bridge to Terabithia in 2007. The film’s
magic realism is frightfully English.
Nymph / Nangmai: Thai, Mystery/ Romance – A slow-paced, minimalist
offering with supernatural overtones from one of Thailand’s most
interesting directors, Pen-ek Ratanaruang, who gave us the excellent
Ploy in 2007. I found it intriguing, and beautifully executed. For
aficionados of Thai art films, who will love it.
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs: US, Animation/ Action/ Comedy/
Romance – If you enjoyed the previous two installments, you should like
this one as well. Excellent for kids and families. Mixed or average
reviews.
Wongkamlao: Thai, Comedy – Popular comedian turned director Mum
Jokmok both directs and stars in this well-received romantic comedy
which parodies Thai high society and soap operas.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi –
Still the top earner in Thailand and the US – immensely popular. Shia
LaBeouf joins with the Autobots® once more against their sworn enemies,
the Decepticons® in this battle of the toys. It’s super-intense, and
bigger and longer than the original. This film has a high noise level,
smashing images, a loud and relentless score, and everyone yelling their
lines at high speed – if this is your idea of fun, go. I’m absolutely
amazed that there is any coherence at all to the thing, but that doesn’t
seem to matter. Generally negative reviews, but that, too, doesn’t seem
to matter.
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