- HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:
-
Money matters
-
Snap Shots
-
Modern Medicine
-
Heart to Heart with Hillary
-
Let’s go to the movies
-
|
|
Money matters:
Graham Macdonald MBMG International Ltd.
Learning from Japan, part 1
Over a year a go, even though everyone knew that the majority
of Western economies were up to their necks in debt, nobody thought they would
be in a similar situation to Japan. Also, no-one believed we could possibly have
anything to learn from what Japan has done over the last ten to fifteen years.
Now, the shoe is on the other foot and we have to ask if they will do as well as
Japan in coping with the economic pooh they now find themselves in. One critic
has described this as balance-sheet deflation.
Without doubt, one of the best analysts of what happened to Japan is Richard Koo
of Nomura Research Institute. He is also a big believer in the fact that balance
sheets actually do matter. Those that have borrowed too much could well be
threatened with bankruptcy and have problems with reducing their debts. A
dramatic fall in asset prices which have been bought via debt will have a much
bigger impact on an economy than the same fall if those assets have been
purchased through little or no debt.
As a quick reminder with what happened to Japan in the Nineties, it must be
remembered that many of the problems with regards to private borrowing and
spending was not down to the banks but due to the borrowers. What this did was
create a position in which, as JM Keynes said when referring to America, low
interest rates were “pushing on a string”. Japan’s rates were ridiculously low
for years. This meant that those who were in debt could pay down their loans.
So, what can the West actually learn from this? Amazingly, the answer is ‘lots’.
Before going into how to do this, let us get rid of a few misconceptions:
- Any comparisons with what is happening now and the US recession of the early
1980s are ill-informed
- During this time, US private debt was 123% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By
the middle of last year it was at 290%
- In 1981, household debt was 48% of GDP, over a year ago it was at 100%
- Twenty nine years ago, intervention by the Federal Reserve was around 20%. Now
it is practically zero
- Nearly three decades ago, when interest rates fell the amount of borrowing
increased dramatically. The chances of that happening now are about as likely as
Scotland winning the Rugby World Cup in 2011
What this means is that there is a massive difference between a recession which
has been caused by the central bank wanting to defeat inflation and one created
by massive debt and falling net worth. With regards to the former, the central
bank actually helped cause the recession, with the latter it has tried to stop
it. Recessions related to credit problems have always been more protracted and
more severe and thus are more likely to lead to a depression.
Also, anyone who is of the belief that Japan’s fiscal expansion was a waste of
time and effort is wrong. When private business and individuals try to pay back
debt over a certain period of time, a country usually has three choices. These
are:
1. Allow the government to do the borrowing
2. Allow an increase in net exports
3. Allow the economy to collapse amid mass bankruptcy
Even though Japan suffered a loss of three times GDP and a contraction of 20% of
GDP in the financial balance of the corporate sector, from losses into surplus,
Japan never had to go through a depression. This is amazing given what they had
to play with. The reason it happened were the large fiscal deficits. Just think,
in 1997, the government tried to bring down these deficits and the economy
nearly went into freefall and what they tried to reduce actually ended up
increasing.
It is vital that if there are losses then they need to be acknowledged.
Recapitalising the financial system is also important. The Japanese had to cope
with weak banks for over ten years. This was because there was a public enmity
to bankers which meant it was very hard for the government to put money into the
economy via these financial institutions.
These banks also refused to allow any companies in trouble to be nationalised.
This caused many political problems. The matter was forced in 1997 when the
reality of the situation had to be confronted. This was also the situation in
America six months ago but the chance to recapitalise and restructure were
missed by the then incumbent administration.
To be continued…
|
The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]@mbmg-international.com.comm.com.com
|
Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
How to buy a digital point and shoot
 Having
made the break from film to digital with the Lumix DMC FZ50 bridge
super-zoom camera, I thought that as a warning to first time purchasers
I should retell the story of our first foray into digital compacts, of
which there are scores to choose from, believe me.
Buying any type of camera in this country is an exercise worse than
buying a new set of spectacles. Anyone who has been dragged into an
optometrist’s by a bevy of immaculately dressed young ladies, and then
pounced upon by a white coated technician who wants to give you a
computerized eye test, while the aforementioned bevy is weighing up your
wallet, will know what I mean.
We ventured into one of the large shopping centers and began the window
shop overview, to be attacked by a bevy of young hopefuls, obviously on
their day off from the eye glasses department. In no time at all, we
were shepherded inside the shop and the sales pitch began in earnest.
Features were thrown at us like confetti at a western wedding. The
mountain of carefully unwrapped cameras also began to grow like Mt.
Everest. Despite my wife now in a state of total confusion she saved the
day by telling the eager sales people that we were going to walk around
and discuss it.
Unfortunately, the next camera shop was right next door, and having seen
that their neighbor had failed to clinch a sale, pounced with an even
greater intensity. Once again we were shown a myriad of cameras, all of
which seemed to do the same job when we thought about it! We were
starting to become informed customers, a dangerous breed of animal!
One feature that my wife liked in these point and shoot digital cameras
was the ability to take short video clips. Now being smarter than we
were before we asked if these video clips could be played back on the
family TV set. When we were told yes, we then asked to see this
demonstrated. If you also think this would be a great feature, then
think again. In the more budget end of the digital point and shooters,
the video end result is poor to mediocre (at best). The images look like
the pixilated photographs on the front page of Thai newspapers, thinly
disguising dead bodies at traffic accident scenes. The more we
investigated, the more it became obvious that digital point and shoot
cameras are really only still image instruments. You are not going to
get ‘movie’ quality and still capabilities at this level. Like the
microwave oven that has a clock, you will never be able to use it as a
wrist watch! It is an oven that can tell the time, not a clock that
cooks food!
And so we went on to another shopping center, to more eager sales
personnel, but by this stage we knew what we wanted. And, we knew what
we wanted to pay! Before you begin the search, make sure you have the
budget figure firmly in your head. The sales team are there to try and
get you to spend as much as possible, remember.
We needed a camera with good optical qualities and a good sized memory
card. An optical zoom makes sense at this level - much more important
than digital zoom, but a most important feature is the viewing screen,
known as an LCD monitor in digital terminology. Get the biggest you can.
There is an enormous difference between looking at a two inch screen,
compared to a one and a half inch screen, believe me.
Another factor that we considered important was physical size. Size does
matter! But this time we were looking for small dimensions. Since
digital technology allows miniaturization, this means a woman can pop
the camera easily in her handbag, or a man into his shirt pocket.
So that was how we made our choice of digital point and shoot compact.
Small overall size, large viewing screen (oops, LCD monitor), easily
operated controls and from a known quality manufacturer.
(Footnote: we bought a Canon Ixus.)
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Try to avoid being an orphan
Try to avoid being an orphan. Apart from the fact of not
growing up with a Mum and Dad, a good knowledge of your parents’ health
profile is important from your future health’s point of view. We are
discovering every day that heredity plays a very important part of your
health profile.
We all have much to thank our parents for. Just letting us grow up for
starters. If my young son continues much longer with the three year old
tantrums, he’s going to be lucky to reach his fourth birthday.
However, heredity is one of the ‘clues’ to your health in the future, and
what you can do to enjoy a long, lively and healthy one. This is where
‘thanks Mum and Dad’ comes in. One problem of being an orphan is that it
leaves the person with no idea as to what ailments are going to befall them.
Dad might have legged it or ‘fled the scene’, but did he live to tell the
tale when he was 60?
With the increasing research into genetics, we are able to map out our
likely futures and can predict such ailments as diabetes, epilepsy and other
neurological problems like Huntington’s Chorea and Alzheimer’s Disease, some
cancers such as breast, ovarian, lower bowel, prostate, skin and testicular,
heart attacks, blood pressure problems, certain blood diseases like Sickle
Cell anemia and so the list goes on.
However, you do not need to have multi-million baht examinations done on
your DNA to see where you are headed, all you need to do is to start asking
the older family members about your inheritance. Not the money - your
genetic inheritance in the health stakes.
Have you ever wondered why the questionnaire for life insurance asks whether
any close member of your family has ever suffered from diabetes, epilepsy
and other ailments and then also asks you to write down how old your parents
or brothers and sisters were when they died, and what they died from? All
that they, the insurance companies, are doing is finding out the relative
likelihood (or ‘risk’) of your succumbing early to an easily identifiable
disease. This does not need a postgraduate Masters degree in rocket science.
It needs a cursory application of family history.
If either of your parents had diabetes, your elder brother has diabetes,
your younger brother has diabetes and your cousin has diabetes, what are the
odds on your getting (or already having) diabetes? Again this does not need
Einstein. The answer is pretty damn high! And yet, I see families like this,
where the individual members are totally surprised and amazed when they fall
ill, go to hospital, and diabetes is diagnosed.
It does not really take very much time over a family lunch to begin to
enquire about one’s forebears. After five minutes it will be obvious if
there is some kind of common medical thread running through your family.
That thread may not necessarily be life threatening, but could be something
like arthritis for example.
Look at it this way - your future is being displayed by your family’s past.
This could be considered frightening, when your father, his brother and your
grandfather all died very early from heart attacks. Or, this could be
considered as life saving, if it pushes you towards looking at you own
cardiac health and overcoming an apparently disastrous medical history.
This is an advantage that you get provided you are not an orphan. You know
what to look for before it becomes a problem. Going back to the family with
diabetes, what should the younger members do? Well, if it were me, I would
be having my blood sugar checked at least once a year from the age of 20.
Any time I had reason to visit the doctor in between, I would also ask to
have the level checked. We are talking about a very inexpensive test that
could literally save you millions of baht in the future, as well as giving
you a better quality of life, and a longer one.
Ask around the dinner table today and plan to check your medical future
tomorrow. It’s called a ‘Check-up’!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
‘Tis the merry month of May when the birds begin to play and Uncle Biffo is
popping over for a visit! Biffo the Bare, as he is known at home, is a keen
naturist and wonders if there is anywhere locally to get his kit off?
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
Of course there are places for your uncle to get his kit off. The shower and the
bedroom spring immediately to mind. I would have thought you could have worked
that out for yourself. Before you ask, I am not volunteering to assist him (or
you) in any way.
Dear Hillary,
My girlfriend speaks quite good English, but I can find it difficult to
understand what she is trying to say some days and we end up having an argument.
The other day she seemed worried and when I asked her what was wrong, she
wouldn’t tell me but said, “I want stay by myself” so I thought she was tired of
our relationship and wanted to leave. I asked her why, as everything seemed to
be OK the day before, but she just started to get mad at me for continuing to
ask her what was wrong. The next day, when she hadn’t left I worked out that
what she wanted to say was she was trying to work out a personal problem, so she
wanted to be “alone” for a while to work it out. If I had known that was what
she wanted I wouldn’t have pressed the point. I try to understand, but it is a
problem. Have you any advice for this communication problem we are having?
Bewildered Bill
Dear Bewildered Bill,
Be bewildered no further, my Petal. I have the answer for you. In any
relationship, clear and open communication is most important. When the two
people come from different cultures and have different native languages, then it
becomes even more likely that confusion will occur. Your girlfriend is trying
her best to communicate with you in a foreign language, but I note you do not
say whether you can communicate with her in Thai, her language. If there are
times of confusion, you should just say “Kaw tort, mai kow jai” (sorry, I don’t
understand) and ask her to put it another way. Finally, try not to hang on the
literal meaning of every word - try and get the overall meaning or emotion. And
get some Thai lessons too!
Dear Hillary,
How much salary should you give a girlfriend? My girlfriend did work in a bar
before she met me and comes from Isarn. My mate says about 30,000 baht should be
enough, but I am getting grumbles from ‘her indoors’ that I don’t pay her enough
at that sort of money. My argument is that she doesn’t have to buy household
items with that 30,000, it is clear profit for her. I pay for the housekeeping
and the maid. I bought her a motorcycle and pay for the petrol. What is your
suggestion on the right amount of money to pay a girlfriend?
Jim
Dear Jim,
Would I surprise you if I suggested that the answer to the “right amount of
money to pay a girlfriend” is “Nothing!” You use words like “pay” and “salary”,
but why? Is this a regular job? Advertised in the Classified section of this
newspaper, “Wanted, live in girlfriend. Good living conditions. Free motorcycle.
Salary 30,000 baht to the correct applicant.” If so, that comes under the
heading of a “mia chow” (rented wife), and could perhaps be looked upon as
“employment”. That being the case, what should the “salary” be? If the woman
works in an office she will get around 10,000-15,000 baht as a university
graduate, and will have to pay for her own room rental and food. So why should a
non-graduate get twice as much, plus live-in perks? I am supposing here that
your ‘her indoors’ probably left school after Mattayom 3. (Feel free to correct
me if your girlfriend is a qualified brain surgeon.) I suggest that you are much
better off living on your own and paying for company as and when needed, rather
than having a resident demanding overpaid “employee”.
Dear Hillary,
Why do the people here totally ignore zebra crossings? There is one outside of
my office and I swear they speed up as they approach it, not even slowing down
at all. Pedestrians take their life in their hands when crossing the street, and
I very often see tourists almost get skittled because they don’t know the ‘rules
of the road’ here. What is the reason, Hillary and what is the answer?
Zebra Zeke
Dear Zebra Zeke,
Such a nice name is Zeke, and I think you must be an American, one of the
countries where zebra crossings are followed. I can understand your concerns, at
my age I have to take a motorcycle taxi to cross the street as it takes too much
time to try walking across. After many minutes of in depth research I have found
the answer for you. It is part of a tourism promotion called “Rushin’ roulette”
to give the visitors a little more excitement than just sightseeing and riding
on elephants and such. It has worked very well and brings in much wanted revenue
for the hospital system.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in
Pattaya
Night at the Museum 2: Escape From the Smithsonian: USA/
Canada, Action/ Comedy – After a wacky night at the New York Museum of
Natural History, the perpetually hapless Larry (Ben Stiller) must
infiltrate the Smithsonian after shipping two of his resurrected friends
to Washington by mistake. As a result, he finds himself in the middle
of a vast conflict between many of the museum’s most noteworthy
historical figures. Robin Williams, Owen Wilson, and Steve Coogan are
back, and this time they’re joined by Amy Adams, Jonah Hill, and
Christopher Guest. The central thrust of the film is to bring to life
the Smithsonian Institution, the world’s largest museum complex with
more than 136 million items in its collections, ranging from the plane
Amelia Earhart flew on her nonstop solo flight across the Atlantic and
Al Capone’s rap sheet and mug shot to Dorothy’s ruby red slippers and
Archie Bunker’s lounge chair. This is the first major film to be shot
inside the Smithsonian in Washington, and it may never be the same.
Angels & Demons: US, Crime/ Drama/ Mystery/ Thriller – A tight,
taut thriller. The team behind the global phenomenon The Da Vinci
Code returns for this highly anticipated follow-up, based on the
bestselling novel by Dan Brown. Tom Hanks reprises his role as Harvard
symbologist Robert Langdon, who once again finds that forces with
ancient roots are willing to stop at nothing, even murder, to advance
their goals. Ron Howard again directs. The film has been written as a
sequel to follow after events in The Da Vinci Code. Mixed or
average reviews.
Bangkok Adrenaline: Thai, Action/ Adventure – An English-language,
Thai action-comedy created by and mostly starring Western foreigners,
many of them stunt professionals, in a story about four deadbeat
expatriates trying to survive in Bangkok after getting in debt to local
gangsters. Shot entirely in Thailand and filmed in English, mostly, but
shown here dubbed in Thai, (with no English subtitles).
The Pink Panther 2: US, Adventure/ Comedy/ Mystery – Insp. Jacques
Clouseau teams up with a squad of International detectives who are just
as bumbling as he is to stop a globe-trotting thief who specializes in
stealing historical artifacts. Generally negative reviews.
Star Trek (2009): US/ Germany, Sci-Fi/ Action – All new! And I
think it’s a great deal of fun, for fans of the series, and also for
those who are not. This much-anticipated film is a reboot of the
series, going back to the series’ ’60s roots by depicting the formative
experiences of the legendary heroes Kirk and Spock. The young James
Tiberius Kirk is a wild Iowa boy whose father sacrificed himself at the
helm of a spaceship at the very moment he was being born. He is
convinced to attend the Starfleet Academy and join the crew of the
Enterprise.
Headed for the same destination is Spock, with a troubled background as
a half-human, half-Vulcan. How these two very opposite figures become
mutually trusted colleagues is the basic story of the film. It’s very
well done, and I found it engrossing. Reviews: Universal acclaim.
Horsemen: Canada/ USA, Horror/ Mystery/ Thriller – A strange film,
with an intriguing premise and an interesting relationship between
father and sons. There are some nice things in it. Dennis Quaid plays
a bitter detective emotionally distanced from his two young sons
following the death of his wife. While investigating a series of
murders of rare violence, he discovers a terrifying link between himself
and the suspects in a chain of murders that seem to be based on the
Biblical prophecies concerning the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
That’s a fascinating idea. Rated R in the US for grisly and disturbing
content, some sexual images, and language.
X-Men Origins: Wolverine: US/ Australia, Action/ Fantasy – Though
most reviews are lukewarm, I think it’s simply brilliant, and a superb
action film for anyone who likes the genre. Stay for two very short
additional scenes during the closing credits, one of which, in a bar in
Japan, is a lead-in to the sequel. Mixed or average reviews.
The Haunting in Connecticut: US, Horror/ Thriller – A classic
haunted-house film, and really well-done of its type. It’s technically
proficient, well acted, with an alarming score, creepy photography, and
a great house. The family is very believable, and an interesting
assortment of people. Based on true events, sort of. Generally
negative reviews.
Saranae Howpeng: Thai, Comedy – Movie version of “Saranae Show” – a
popular Thai comedy TV show that has been on the air for 11 years.
Crank: High Voltage: US, Action – The indestructible Jason Statham
again plays a hitman, this time chasing a Chinese gangster who hijacked
his heart and substituted a mechanical one that needs to be jolted
regularly to stay pumping. Rated R in the US for frenetic strong bloody
violence throughout, crude and graphic sexual content, nudity, and
pervasive language.
|
|
|
|
News | Business | Features |
Columns | Mail Bag |
Sports | Auto Mania
Our Children | Travel |
Our Community | Dining Out & Entertainment
Social Scene | Classifieds |
Community Happenings | Books Music Movies
Clubs in Pattaya | Sports Round-Up
E-mail: [email protected]
Pattaya Mail Publishing Co.Ltd.
62/284-286 Thepprasit Road, (Between Soi 6 & 8) Moo 12, Pattaya City
T. Nongprue, A. Banglamung,
Chonburi 20150 Thailand
Tel.66-38 411 240-1, 413 240-1, Fax:66-38 427 596
Copyright © 2004 Pattaya Mail. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
|
|
|
