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Money matters

Snap Shots

Modern Medicine

Heart to Heart with Hillary

Learn to Live to Learn

Let’s go to the movies


Money matters:   Graham Macdonald MBMG International Ltd.

Reading the Runes, part 1

It must be frustrating being Bob Janjuah who is the Royal Bank of Scotland’s extremely savvy credit strategist who achieved notoriety last year by controversially warning of the impending credit crisis and subsequently has been proven right. No surprise to us as we’d already reached the same conclusions and had positioned our client portfolios accordingly. Yet at RBS and most other banks, it appears that investment strategists and portfolio managers have been continuing to maintain a significant weighting to equities for the past year as the economy and equity markets became increasingly mired in the sub-prime fall out and the credit crunch.
Janjuah and his team have now re-iterated their credit fears of last year and advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months. We’ve had very similar concerns since the sub-prime reared its ugly head back in 2007 and then became a full blown credit crunch in the final quarter of last year, spilling over into the first half of this year. Despite the financial sector’s resilience in surviving what has been thrown at it so far, Janjuah and his team now see the same dangers as ourselves - specifically that inflation will paralyse the policy-making of major central banks. Thus, faced with a stagflationary outlook, every choice looks bad for central bankers and that is very bad news for equities.
A report by the bank’s research team warns that the S&P 500 may well fall by more than 300 points by September as “all the chickens come home to roost” from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets adding, “A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared”.
Fortunately, we were prepared when the market was at 1500 rather than closer to 1300 it is today and, unlike most private banking portfolios, we have had our strategies ready for some time thus allowing our clients to make solid gains over the last 6 months as opposed to losing 15% or more in equity markets. Scott Campbell was at pains to point out during his recent Bangkok visit that although there are opportunities in various asset classes, he’d like to see equities at significantly lower levels before being in any tearing hurry to buy back in to equity markets, at which point Asia and emerging markets may well look better placed than western developed markets.
Bob Janjuah thinks that moves into distressed credit may still be too early - “I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, and non-cyclical defensive names.” This is, however, a topic that we have covered in detail in our current research paper - “Distress, what distress?”
Up to this point we’d agree with Bob Janjuah. However, his further comments reveal the added frustrations of being a prescient economist operating in a traditional asset class environment. Faced with a choice of equities or bonds, both of which look grim in the short term, Bob finds himself in a parallel dilemma to those central bankers who have to choose between inflation and recession. Neither looks good and it’s not easy to see which is the lesser of the two evils.
Therefore, the best advice that Bob Janjuah can give is that cash is the only safe haven, the only asset class that offers protection and looks likely to avoid losing money. Try not to lose too much money or your job would seem to be the best advice that RBS (which also operates the Coutts brand these days) can give most of its clients. In fairness, that places them way ahead of the majority of private banks who continue to hold equities for the long term, irrespective of how far they seem to be falling in the near term.
The best summary of the difference between the Wall Street portfolio managers who are removed from clients in their ivory towers and the perspective of those of us who are at ‘the coal face’ every day, and actually speaking to clients, was summed up extremely well by Stephen Romick of FPA recently when justifying why cash constitutes 40% (slightly higher than MitonOptimal weighting at this time) of his portfolios right now:
“As long term investors one might say who cares, because one cannot time the market. We agree in principle, but we have met few claiming to invest for the long-term, who have also proven to have the stomach to handle the downside volatility that brings prices lower than you ever thought possible. Our cash hoard has not grown because of our top down point of view, but due to our inability to find comfort in the upside versus the downside for the individual investments we analyze. We are not ashamed to admit that the unknowns in this environment scare us a bit - not enough to be disinvested, but enough to make sure that we have enough on the sidelines to survive what the market throws us. We know we lack the skill to pick the bottom, but we sure don’t like the idea of picking the middle.”
On that same note, Scott Campbell recently visited Bangkok because the world’s #1 portfolio manager in his sector feels that it is important to regularly come and meet the investors whose money he directs. Scott advanced this theme even further - “It may not be possible to time individual markets but that is relatively unimportant anyway - asset selection (i.e. choosing which equity funds or which equity sectors to be invested in) probably contributes only around 5% of the total returns that are generated. Over 90% comes from asset allocation - reading the big, macro picture and capturing or exploiting those trends. That is possible and that’s what we’ve been doing at MitonOptimal, now Midas Capital, for many years. It’s not rocket science; it’s mainly informed common sense. There are opportunities in the markets right now, although not the equity markets and there will be even more opportunities coming up - we can find attractive investments now and we expect to find even more going forwards. We’re not holding so much cash because we don’t know where to invest so much as we’ve been taking profits off the table in our commodity holdings, especially gold and oil which have done so well and which we expect to fall back allowing us to buy back in at better prices and then enjoy a prolonged structural bull market. A disciplined portfolio manager isn’t afraid to take money off the table when a short term bubble appears during a long term bull run and that’s where we’re at right now.”
To be continued…

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]@mbmg-international.com.com



Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman

Sell your photo junk

Like most photographers, you will start to get a collection of old photo gear. Some of it has become surplus to requirements, some of it is broken and not worth repairing or too difficult to get repaired in this country, and much has become redundant because you have changed camera systems, or even changed complete formats (6x6 to 35 mm for example).
I found myself in that situation recently after purchasing my Panasonic Lumix Digital DMC-FZ50 (which is still delighting me). It took a year of deliberation (some might call it ‘hesitation’ or just plain ‘dithering’) before I made the fateful decision to a) go digital and b) go Lumix, after more than 20 years of using Nikon exclusively.
Of course, some of you will ask why didn’t I stay with Nikon, with its full range of digital SLRs? Good question, but easily answered. The upper level Nikons are now very expensive, and whilst I had some excellent Nikon manual focus prime lenses, they were not going to be all that compatible with the new Nikon digital auto-focus systems.
That also brings in one of the salient reasons in the purchase of the Lumix - the fantastic 35-420 Leica zoom lens that comes with the Panasonic Lumix, coupled with the electronic anti-shake technology so you can hand hold, even at 420 mm. With digitals these days, I believe that you are best served with electronics from an electronic company, with lenses from an optical company. The Lumix definitely fits that.
Having made the irrevocable decision, I looked at my now defunct Nikon 35 mm film system. I had two cameras, a much loved FM2N, and an FA. The FM2N was the typical journalist’s workhorse with more rolls of film through it than I’ve had hot dinners, whilst the FA was the back up. Only thing was the FA was no longer working, having some kind of internal problem, by which the mirror was locked in the “up” mode.
The lenses were a 24 mm wide angle, old and growing its second crop of fungus (the first was cleaned off about five years ago), a 50 mm ‘standard’ lens and a 135 mm ‘portrait’ lens. I also had a spacer for macro work, which was also very old, but was the good one that still allowed the auto exposure function to work.
Quite frankly, as far as I was concerned, these items were now surplus and it was going to be very unlikely that I would use any of it again (although I would still take the FM2N out of its bag and lovingly stroke it every so often).
It was at that stage that a good friend of mine suggested I sell the surplus items, and said that he had excellent results selling items on eBay in the UK. He was returning to the UK himself and offered to sell them, and I thought, “Why not? I’m getting nothing for them sitting in the old camera bag.”
He had been back a couple of weeks when I got the following email:
        Watchers   Bids       £
FA            1        4 7        28
FM2N       39       13         65
Spacers   16         5         22
24 mm      40        23      108
50 mm      55        13        68
135 mm    17           5       34
That little lot came to 325 pounds sterling, which at current exchange rates is over 20,000 baht, which certainly made purchase of the Lumix a breeze (duty-free price).
What made the exercise even more astounding was the number of ‘watchers’ who had been looking as the bids went in on eBay. 14 looking at a broken FA and someone who paid almost 2,000 baht for it. The lenses all went for very good money, though I would have thought the 135 mm would have been more desirable than the 50 mm, but the 24 mm did attract the highest bid, as I thought it would.
The moral to this tale is to look at the old camera gear, broken or otherwise and clear out the cupboard and sell it on eBay. You will get more than you ever imagined, but it certainly helped having a friend who was a regular eBay user and stationed in the UK.


Modern Medicine: by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

More(ton) on BSE

My recent column on breast cancer and Breast Self Examination (BSE) produced a response from Dr Michael Moreton, the International Medical Coordinator at the Bangkok Hospital Medical Center in Bangkok. I have taken the liberty (with his permission) to reprint his letter.
“I was a specialist in Women’s Heath care for many years and the techniques used to screen for Breast Cancer are of special interest to me. I would like to make a couple of additional comments to add to Dr Iain’s words.
“I agree wholeheartedly that Breast Self Examination (BSE) is a useful method of monitoring the breasts. Every woman’s breasts are different in texture and the patient becomes an expert in her own breasts and can recognize changes that a doctor might miss. I suggest to patients that a good time is in the shower or while waiting for the water temperature to stabilize before getting into the shower.
“It is important to know the correct technique. You should press the breast tissue between the chest wall and the flat pads of your fingers, do not use the tips of the fingers. When you have your next physical exam ask your doctor to demonstrate how to do this. Every doctor has had the experience of a woman coming to see them and telling them that they have a breast lump and it is only with the woman’s instructions that the doctor can feel the lump. It’s a good technique; we both recommend that you do this self-examination regularly.
“The debate about Mammography swings one way and another. The modern machines are now using a digital technique. This has several advantages. With the older machines there was a worry that repeated mammograms might even cause cancer due to radiation. There is no chance of that now. With the computer we can also zoom in to worrying areas and get more information. Digital also has the advantage that the pictures can be sent electronically for a second opinion or put on a disk so that you can keep the pictures and show a doctor in another country if that is your wish.
“Ultrasound, can also be useful in certain situations. In order to perform mammography the breast has to be compressed between two plates and X-rayed, in women with small breasts this can be difficult and U/S may be a better method for these women. Similarly women with breast implants may be additionally assessed with this method. If I am particularly interested in one area of the breast I will ask the technician to look carefully at the area. The U/S can be angled in from different directions and this can be useful in examining a worrisome area of the breast. Most modern U/S machines also have a Doppler ability and they can identify areas of the breast with a particularly rich blood supply, which can be a sign of trouble.
“Another technique that has been discussed for several years and that you may read about is Thermography. In this method the patient is placed in a cool room and photographs are taken with a temperature sensitive camera. Hot spots on the breast can be identified. The problem is that not all hot spots are caused by cancers; I am not too enthusiastic about this method.
“The most exciting thing on the horizon is the use of genetic studies in assessing the chances of cancer in any one patient. We know that there are two genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 which can be inherited and will increase the chances of cancer developing. When this blood test is perfected any woman will be able to have a blood test to see if she has a high risk or a low risk of getting breast cancer. Then different screening programs can be arranged.
“A few dietary steps can be taken which may help to reduce the chances of cancer. A diet full of fat is thought to be dangerous; one more reason to avoid them. One positive step that mothers should take is to breast feed their babies as it is found that this activity is protective.”
(Thank you Dr. Moreton for reinforcing the message on BSE. From here, it is up to you, ladies!)


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary (and Jim),
You gave Jim age 76 advice that a good way to learn to speak Thai is the “total immersion” method. I used this method in France with great success. However, here in Thailand things are different. The French people are more assertive than Thai people. Until I became somewhat fluent, French people would repeat everything I said, I think not to be rude, but to make sure they understood what I had said. By them repeating what I said, I heard the correct pronunciation, which was very good feed back. Here in Thailand the people are just too darn polite for them to repeat or even ask me to repeat it. And they never, I repeat never, correct me. When they don’t understand what I said they just give me this blank look. Also, in France nobody laughed at me like many young men do here. The French people seemed to be flattered that I was attempting to speak their language and wanted to help me. Here is the method that works for me in Thailand; My Thai wife went to Suriwong Bookcenter and purchased the exact same grammar books that the Thai kids use in their first and second year classes. It starts out just as basic as you can get. There is a picture of a train with the Thai word รถไฟ - of course, no English. The next page, the train comes (มา), so, รถไฟ มา. Then a picture of the Uncle, ตา. The next page, the Uncle sitting on the train, ตา มา รถไฟ.. And so it goes. Just like our American grammar books. Each chapter has a section on the alphabet and later the accent marks for the different tones. This way I’m learning to read, write and speak Thai and it’s fun. Of course my Thai wife works with me. Many bar girls never learned how to read and write Thai. This would be a good way for a farang and his bar girl friend to learn Thai together. Not withstanding all this, Thai kids six years old know how to speak their language when they start grammar school. So, I found it was beneficial to take a basic language class before I started on the school books. You (Jim) might want to take private classes, one on one, a bit more expensive than group classes but you could progress at your own pace.
Uncle Bill
Dear Uncle Bill,
What a kindly old uncle you are, possibly coming to see me “on a train”, and all in Thai, too. I’m impressed, my Petal. I am also impressed that your Thai wife works with you on getting your ‘pasa Thai’ up to speed. She was the one who got you the books and helps you with your ‘homework’ as well. Lucky, lucky Uncle Bill. (Or is that Unka Bin?) The fact that the French people spoke to you kindly also shows what a nice person you are. Many people complain that the French will only speak French and nothing else. Pop in and see me when you’re fluent in Thai. You do have another 50 years planned on the planet, haven’t you?

Dear Hillary,
You always have advice for all the lovelorn men out there to be very wary of the bargirls, but what about us women visitors? Is it the same for us? We are just looking for a good time while we are here, not looking for a long term relationship (we’ve all had those and have escaped from them at home TG). What do you have to say for us. You know, woman to woman. Is it safe? And where are the best places?
Ethel
Dear Ethel,
A new tourist attraction! Thailand’s bar boys, and here I was thinking that you all went to Spain or Uganda or somewhere like that. I must let the Tourism Authority of Thailand know you are coming. They might even lay on a welcome committee at the airport for you and your girlfriends. How many of them will be coming over here as well? There will be no problem for them to find a willing partner (non-long term). You will recognize them as they wear trousers with a zip on both sides, so they can swing either way.

Dear Hillary,
The Thai girls are really lucky. They are all size 6, 8 or 10 and it is easy for them to find clothes. For western women, this is a problem as most of us start at around size 12 and some of us can go a lot bigger than that. Have you any ideas for us more ample ladies? A place somewhere that knows and understands our problems and will cater for us.
Leader of the girls and Size 14
Dear Leader of the girls and size 14,
I was very tempted to suggest a slimming salon. They know and understand your problem and in exchange for some thousands of baht, you will emerge like a butterfly from the chrysalis, but you still won’t be size 10. No ladies, you have to accept the fact that you are big-boned girls and the place for you is a tailor shop that specializes in women’s wear.


Learn to Live to Learn: with Andrew Watson

The undeniable delights of Mantra

At no expense spent, a year in Milan, fashion capital of the world, had come to a close. Sporting an unfeasible combination of lurid pink silk above and unruly crushed pastel blue linen below, with fuschia hanky around my neck and aubergine leather shoes pointing the way, I found myself strolling towards the Pattaya’s palace of imagination, Mantra, dressed according to one of my own; “Fashion follows me”.
Having observed impossibly spindly models probing their way along catwalks, there is of course no chance of me taking the thing seriously. In fact, quite the reverse; in so doing, I have been able to fully explore and enjoy the pleasures of passion and invention within the fashion industry. As I have discovered by experiences both positive and less positive; smiling makes me feel better.
“Mantra is chic, smart and stylish - and that’s how we like our patrons to dress,” they say. So, bedecked I hope, to their expectation, I swept up the steps like a gazelle. It’s clever how they do this of course, but the monumental door opened before my hand had even reached it, as if moved by an invisible force. The force then appeared like an angel, in melongene and ochre, with alizarin crimson lips, dark, smiling eyes and chic, black bob.
“Good evening, Khun Andrew,” came the sensuous voice of the force, beckoning me with painted fingers on a hand that Durer would have died for, to my usual spot; seat 3 at the bar.
A familiar shape stood in front of me; a long necked glass, leaning much like myself, slightly to the left. The Long Island Iced Tea, a handsome drink indeed, tall and elegant, a flawless, polished chocolate suspension, laced with suspicion. You see, you need to be careful with the Long Islands; they can seduce you. Before you know it, her chilled sweetness has, paradoxically, warmed your veins and is suggesting, mischievously, with an icy glint in her eye, that you try another. So you do. What’s in a name? A rose by any other name would smell as sweet. You’re beginning to fall in love. But you’ve only just met this beautiful creature, so you need to retain self-control, a sense of propriety. You don’t want her thinking you’re a flusie now, do you?
I’m with my best friend, a man with eyes blue as the morning ocean when the sun sprinkles a million diamonds onto the surface - and his eyes glitter too. Laughing with him now, I am both happy and sad. Happy, because I am with him again; my friend who is one in a thousand and closer than a brother; we pick up where we left off. Sad, because for all the joy of being reunited, it is nonetheless true that we have been apart too long and I have missed his soulful perspective, his compassionate heart, his creative panache and his hilarious companionship. From this ruddy complexion beams a smile as broad as a boulevard. Mantra is where our creativity is given full vent; it is where, floating in the canopy of imagination, surrounded by scarlet drapes stretching skyward to the stars, with the sound of the rhythm of the Mantra beat driving us on, that we feel most alive.
Standards, my friends, are everything. “Gentleman - no shorts, tanktops or sandals please. The Mantra Team reserves the right to refuse entry”: quite right too. I’m not one for the superfluous etiquette of the East India Club, where to audible tutting, I once made the frightful faux-pas of attempting to remove my jacket, but when you want some class around you, it’s reassuring that there’s a place where you can go where you know, that total quality is assured.
Those cavernous doors opened once again and through the light moved the paragon of quality, Tim Neufeld, father of Elite Model’s Thailand champion and PMTV’s very own Naz. He has magic in his fingers; a player of classical pianoforte of the highest calibre and bon viveur par excellence, with a sense of humour drier than the Gobi desert. Another Long Island appeared; we were well met. But I must warn you; a third Long Island is for many, dangerous, unchartered waters. Not so much aiming for the stars as pressing the hyperspace button. So as the evening melts into the night and Prussian blue comes crashing down, be sure to focus on the lights in the sky. There we were, we three, lapping at the shores of perhaps the last islands of beauty in the world, soothing self-inflicted fatigue, easing the suffering of worn limbs and bathing in the glorious waters of victual vicissitude.
The day’s lucky work deserved more happy reward. It still felt early but wasn’t, when we discovered ourselves perambulating towards purveyors of only the finest, most delectable dishes, in search of an opportunity to massage our metabolisms. Alexander Parry, operations manager, a dashing cavalier of a man, apparated before us, tailored to the nines. In truth and by reputation, he is more than just a good conversationalist; erudite, educated, a world traveller with an unmistakable passion for what he does, I saw a few pretty faces, boy and girl alike, swoon as he passed. But then, every face which shone around us from atop Mantra’s gloriously figure hugging black and red was a delicious picture. Caravaggio for the grotesque and Hieronymus Bosch for beauty used to scour the streets for their models; here in my very own Garden of Earthly Delights was a panorama of the richest blooms. Protocol, like a red light, is merely a suggestion; where is Mimi, I wonderd? I had to remind myself that I had come for the sake of quixotic amelioration of my alimentary condition, yet captivated by her gaze, I felt my appetite imitate replenishment - simply by beholding her ephemeral beauty.
It was well into the next morning before I realized what had happened; this night of passionate immoderation had left me floating on a cloud of happiness. “Mantra is tremendous,” I kept repeating to myself.
Next week: Ignorance is Fear


Let’s go to the movies: by Mark Gernpy

Now playing in Pattaya
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor: US/Germany/Canada Action /Adventure /Fantasy – In the Far East, trouble-seeking father-and-son duo Rick and Alex O’Connell unearth the mummy of the first Emperor of Qin – a shape-shifting entity who was cursed by a wizard centuries ago. Doomed by a double-crossing sorceress to spend eternity in suspended animation, China’s ruthless Dragon Emperor and his 10,000 warriors have lain forgotten for eons, entombed in clay as a vast, silent terra cotta army, until a reckless young archaeologist is tricked into awakening the ruler from eternal slumber. Starring: Brendan Fraser, Jet Li, Maria Bello. Third in the Mummy series.
Journey to the Center of the Earth: US Adventure /Fantasy – Starring Brendan Fraser, Josh Hutcherson, and Anita Briem. During a scientific expedition in Iceland, visionary scientist Trevor Anderson, his 13-year-old nephew and their beautiful local guide, are unexpectedly trapped in a cave from which their only escape is to go deeper and deeper into the depths of the Earth. It’s utterly preposterous, but fun, as the trio travel through never-before-seen worlds, and come face-to-face with surreal creatures – including man-eating plants, giant flying piranha, glow birds, and even dinosaurs. Mixed or average reviews for the 3D version, which we won’t see here.
The Strangers: US Thriller/Horror – Repellent and repulsive: If I were in charge of things, it would be banned. Shows kids how much fun it is to terrorize people, and details how to do it. Why thoughtful, sane people aren’t boycotting it is a mystery. Three malevolent, masked strangers terrorize a couple in their isolated vacation home. Rated R in the US for violence/terror and language. Mixed or average reviews.
The Dark Knight: US Action/ Crime/ Drama/ Thriller – I think it’s just a wonderful film, but not everyone agrees: I find it dark, complex, and unforgettable, and think it succeeds not just as an entertaining comic book film, but as a richly thrilling and disturbing crime drama. And Heath Ledger gives a performance that is terrifying in its portrayal of an insane mind. I would suggest, however, that the film is not for kids – it’s way too dark for them to appreciate or even understand.
In this episode, set within a year after the events of Batman Begins, Batman, Lieutenant James Gordon, and new district attorney Harvey Dent successfully begin to round up the criminals that plague Gotham City until a mysterious and sadistic criminal mastermind known only as the Joker appears, creating a new wave of chaos. Batman’s struggle against the Joker becomes deeply personal, forcing him to “confront everything he believes.” And there’s a love triangle that develops between Bruce Wayne, Dent, and Rachel Dawes. Reviews: Universal acclaim.
Hellboy II: The Golden Army: US Action/Fantasy – Again directed by Guillermo del Toro and starring Ron Perlman as Hellboy, this again presents a dark and difficult fantasy world full of fantastical creatures that will leave you amazed and dazed. Almost too much of a good thing, but see it for sure. The imagination of this movie is unparalleled. Generally favorable reviews.
Red Cliff Part 1: China Action/Adventure – This $80-million film, directed by John Woo, is being shown here only in a Thai-dubbed version, and that is a real shame. This is a grand and glorious spectacle, depicting the first setup episodes for one of the world’s greatest battles, the Battle of Red Cliff, in third century China, as the emperor of the Han Dynasty raises a million-man army against two kingdoms.
Scheduled for Aug 7
Mamma Mia! US/UK/Germany Comedy/ Musical/ Romance
– Starring Meryl Streep, Pierce Brosnan, and Colin Firth. Donna, an independent, single mother who owns a small hotel on an idyllic Greek island, is about to let go of Sophie, the spirited daughter she’s raised alone. For Sophie’s wedding, Donna has invited her two lifelong best girlfriends – practical and no-nonsense Rosie and wealthy, multi-divorcee Tanya – from her one-time backing band, “Donna and the Dynamos.” But Sophie has secretly invited three guests of her own. On a quest to find the identity of her father to walk her down the aisle, she brings back three men from Donna’s past to the Mediterranean paradise they visited 20 years earlier. Mixed or average reviews.
Where the Miracle Happens: Thai Drama – Produced by Her Royal Highness Princess Ubolrat Ratchakanya, this film premiered in Cannes on May 16, and is a drama adapted from a story in her book, “Rueng San Tee Chan Kit” (“Short Stories from My Thoughts”). The Princess also stars in the film as a successful businesswoman, Pimdao, who values only material things until she loses her only daughter in a car accident.
You Don’t Mess with the Zohan: US Action/Comedy – An Adam Sandler opus. Here’s the plot: An Israeli Special Forces soldier fakes his death so he can re-emerge in New York City as a hair stylist. Can you believe? Mixed or average reviews.