Vol. XIII No. 9
Friday March 4 - March 10, 2005

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Fun City By The Sea

Updated every Friday
by Saichon Paewsoongnern

 



 

COLUMNS
HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:

Money matters

Snap Shots

Modern Medicine

Learn to Live to Learn

Heart to Heart with Hillary

Psychological Perspectives

Sound and Vision

Money matters: Wall Street’s crystal ball reveals overcast in 2005 (Part one)

Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.

The Wall Street Journal has found that Wall Street gazed into its crystal ball for 2005 and likes what it sees - sort of. 10 leading strategists have indicated how they think financial markets will perform this year. While the general consensus is positive for stocks in 2005, the strategists see several clouds lurking. Skyrocketing U.S. budget and trade deficits, tepid job growth and weakening corporate profits are all current trends that could hurt the economy and stocks, although the gap between that perception and the analysts’ forecasts are strangely discordant.

The biggest fear of all, WSJ found, is inflation. The Federal Reserve raised its target on the federal-funds rate five times in 2004 to 2.25% in order to keep a clamp on inflation. Yields on long-term Treasury bonds, though, ended the year almost exactly where they started – surprising since bond yields typically rise in sync with inflation to make them more attractive to investors who may be lured towards equities. To MBMG this is a clear indication that the bond markets don’t believe the inflation dangers. Neither do we. Recession is the most obvious danger that spooks us.

“We’ve almost had a miracle in the bond market this year,” says Phil Roth, chief technical strategist at Miller Tabak in New York, one of the more bearish forecasters we spoke with. Roth thinks that miracle could turn into a curse for investors if interest rates take off in 2005 as the Fed tries to head off any rapid acceleration in inflation.

Not everybody agrees. Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Oak Associates in Akron, Ohio, says inflation will remain tepid next year due to increasing globalization. “Free trade is another way of saying more competition, and there’s more competition with globalization, which offsets inflationary pressures,” he says. He predicts the 10-year Treasury yield will remain relatively stable, floating between 4% and 5%. We expect to see rates touch 5% before falling away sharply as the economy slows down.

Another recurring theme: cold, hard cash. Most analysts expect companies to start spending in 2005 at a quicker pace than they have in recent years. Indeed, we’ve already seen companies unleash some of their hoards in a wave of dividend increases, stock buybacks and mergers and acquisitions. However, we very much doubt that they also will use that cash to start hiring more workers.

We’ll be looking at each analyst’s calls (and why we’re so at odds with them) in the following weeks.

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]


Snap Shots: Caveat Emptor! A true tale

by Harry Flashman

John Weinthal, the Down-under motoring correspondent, is a versatile chap. Not only does he evaluate motor cars, but he photographs them as well. Having briefly looked at the photography column from a few weeks back, he decided that the convenience afforded by the new credit-card sized digital point and shooters was what he needed. Slip it in the shirt pocket for use when needed. Point, shoot, and he had it! However, it was not quite as simple as it sounded. Here are the (photographic) Words from Weinthal.

Time was that instruction books could be more fun than the product involved.

A long forgotten Mazda of the ’60s bore a plate advising that the tyres should be rotated – i.e., moved front to rear and side to side - every 50 miles!

Such instruction books, and a variety of official and semi-official signs, even generated their own language name of Engrish.

Kid yourselves not that such times passed with the turn of the millennia.

A recently purchased mini-digital camera (a totally dud product as it transpired, but we’ll get to that later) advises under the heading Maintenance and Preservation ‘Clean the camera boy...’

The who? Boy or body, this was only the beginning.

The Contents list begins: ‘Thank you for purchasing our product, please read the manual carefully before using the product,’ (I did, in fact I could barely put it down). Read on: ‘to ensure that you can enjoy all the functions of the product and insure the product a long-term stable normal work, at the same time, please preserve the manual warily for checking in time in your using process.’

Interesting contents include ‘Browsing the magnifying photographs’ and ‘Revising exposal.’

Product features, it declares, include: high pixel shoot mode ‘achieving interpolation outputting’ and ‘Individual starting interface could be set with the shoot photographs, increasing the operation fun.’

Driver installation: ‘Process should not same fully in the different Windows system, but it is similar.’

Finally I found something I wish was true. While most cameras have a self-timer feature for delaying the shutter, this item has ‘self-shooting’. By God I wish it did. And I wish it had turned it on itself before I fell for the device.

The handbook and packaging declare it to be a product of FujiPro, Osaka Japan and the model is Superfine D8. Like an idiot I took this to be some relation to Fuji Photo Film Co Ltd, the makers of the excellent FinePix digital camera series, two of which have given me first class service over the past three years or so.

The worst thing is that this so called 8 megapixel creation cannot take a decent photo to save its, or my, life. When finally downloaded to the computer I saw the worst batch of out-of-focus, crazy colour messes ever seen.

God save me from impulse purchases. I had paid a lot for a new computer and was waiting a couple of hours while changes were made to adapt it to my specs. During that time, while becoming increasingly bored, I spotted this so-called camera and was silly enough to believe the sales pitch.

This not-Fuji Film phoney Fuji is a real dawg product - thankfully the instruction manual provided a modicum of merriment, but not enough to stop me revisiting the guys who sold it to me in Kuala Lumpur tomorrow.

Now whilst John can write a very amusing story, there is a certain moral to this as well. John admits that he bought it on an impulse, which is never the best way to purchase anything. He thought he was buying a Fuji FinePix, but he was not. He also did not get the shop to demonstrate the capabilities of the camera, complete with throwing the pictures up on a TV screen, or at least a computer screen. This is something that I very strongly recommend.

Fortunately there was a happy ending to the tale of the phony Fuji. The shop gave John a full refund. But will he be a wiser shopper? Time will tell!


Modern Medicine: Smoking improves your memory?

by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

The smokers amongst you will have seized on that headline and are voraciously reading this item, in the hope that you have some evidence to throw in the face of those who would point the finger at all smokers.

In a recent edition of the British Medical Journal, a publication not known for wild and extravagant claims, researchers reported on the claims that smoking enhances memory, vigilance, attention and reduces the risk of dementia.

Now when the British Medical Journal (BMJ) publishes results, the author has been checked for his or her bona fides, and the results are also checked by independent specialists. When the BMJ publishes something, it is authoritative.

In a well researched article, entitled ‘Long term smoking contributes to cognitive decline’, the study was based on about 500 men and women who were all born in 1936 and who had taken part in the same IQ survey in 1947, and who had agreed to be re-examined at the age of about 64 between 2000 - 2002 to measure any decline.

In essence, what the researchers did, was to look at the IQ score of the 500 people when they were 11 years old in 1936, and then compare the scores at age 64. It was also found that many factors were involved, including education, occupation, lung function and smoking.

The authors, from universities at Aberdeen and Edinburgh, reported in a paper in Addictive Behaviors (2005; 30:77-88), “Current smokers and non-smokers had significantly different mental test scores at age 64. This difference remained after adjustment for childhood IQ,” said the authors.

Now comes the crunch line. “After adjustment for childhood IQ, a positive smoking history was associated with lower performance on tests of psychomotor speed and on a composite score derived from five cognitive tests,” says the report. “There were no differences in IQ at age 11 by smoking status, but by age 64, current smokers were performing less well on cognitive tests than non-smokers and former smokers. Psychomotor speed was lower in smokers.”

After taking every other variable factor into consideration, the research did not back up the claims that smoking enhances memory, vigilance, attention and reduces the risk of dementia. In fact, it was quite the reverse. Quoting directly from the report in the BMJ, “We conclude that long term smoking does not produce long term cognitive benefits; to the contrary, smoking makes a small but significant contribution to cognitive decline from age 11 to 64.”

The authors added, “The data obtained here suggest that about 5.7 percent of the variance in cognitive function at age 64 is attributable to the effects of education and occupation after adjustment for IQ at age 11. Thereafter, small but significant negative contributions amounting to no more than about 4 percent are made by a combination of smoking and impaired lung function acting both together and alone. Although negative effects on cognition are relatively small in terms of a single individual, these effects are important at the population level. As a lifestyle choice, they are open to modification and thereby to enhancement of retention of cognitive function.”

In a nutshell, this research has shown that you can expect a slow deterioration in your mental function, but if you remain interested in life and continue your education, have an interesting job and don’t smoke, you have every chance of still being on the ball when you turn 64.

If not, you will have reduced your mental capacity by 10 percent. Now while 10 percent doesn’t sound much, in the IQ stakes, it means a lot!


Learn to Live to Learn: The Imperative for Creative Genius

with Andrew Watson

In focusing on what I regard as models of leadership over the past few weeks, I think it is important to reiterate that in so doing, I do not espouse emulation of their feats per se, but rather, that in considering their lives, we can aspire to show the same central tenets of common humanity, tolerance, compassion, integrity, a sense of social justice and so on.

They are our teachers, who by their example brighten what can be a dark road. Equally, it is salient to remember that we are all each other’s teacher and all each other’s student. For example, I have learned so much about so many things from my children and by being a father. I have learned about myself and about compassion and mercy, and about teaching and learning.

During my first two weeks as a father, I learned new levels of tolerance and experienced fatigue I never knew existed! Actually, that whole miracle of birth thing just blew me away. In one magical moment, I was changed forever. Holding a new born baby, having the power to crush or preserve life and choosing life, I thought to myself, “this really is what beauty means”.

Having the strength to be destructive but preferring to show mercy, compassion and unconditional love is truly a beautiful thing. I think that’s the kind of seminal moment that happens a lot in education for students (I certainly remember the merciful teachers) and I feel sorry for those too barren in experience to recognise it.

Last week, conductor Petr Von Shmelwyn proposed that dictatorship was preferable to democracy and I wondered how applicable that was to educational leaders. Do dictators have to be dysfunctional despots, nutters, tyrants, seemingly blind to the tragic consequences of their vulgar violence? Or can they not be benign, harmless? After all, having supreme power is what makes them a dictator.

It has been proposed in this column before that there isn’t a ‘one model fits all’ for leadership in schools, due to the multifarious nature of them. What seems to be beyond doubt, however, is that leadership entails the capacity for a certain rudimentary level of basic transactional (management) skills, including (amongst others) communication, time management and interpersonal skills in political, social and moral roles, coupled with a healthy personal life. Don’t underestimate the last point – I’ve seen quite a few red-eyed leaders whose habitual ‘tipple’ has spun out of control, resulting in leadership dependant on power derived from their position. As Greenfield (2000) rightly point out, “A principal who must resort to influence on the basis of authority derived from office diminishes his or her ability to lead”.

When I start a school year, I give my students three books as required reading. One is ‘The Little Prince’ by Antoine Saint-Exupery, another is ‘The Alchemist’ by Paulo Coelho and the third is ‘The Prophet’ by Khalil Gibran. I think all are truly magical books and remind the reader of what it is to think like a child. They enliven the mind and enrich the heart and perhaps can be summed up by the line from ‘The Alchemist’, “It is the possibility of dreams coming true, which makes life interesting.”

Of all the lessons I have learned, this is perhaps the truest and when I think of all the great examples of leadership that I have mentioned already, I feel sure they felt the same.

I asked a man about a year ago, who looked tired and old beyond his years and sounded tedious and weary, whether he thought his life could be changed by something as simple as a book. He replied, “No, it’s just a story.” I looked deep into his eyes, and saw only emptiness, and I was greatly saddened by it. On the other hand, I recently had the good fortune to meet a man who is director of probably the best international school in the world and I asked him what he looked for in teacher. “Passion, the Maverick, the flicker in the eye!” he replied.

Picasso is the one leader of whom I have not yet written. As a person, I have read too much of him not to feel uncomfortable about his treatment of women. In politics, I admire his courage in painting his complex allegory of the Spanish civil war in ‘Guernica’. But my real interest in him is as an intellectual and artistic revolutionary, as a pioneer of daring and courage and like the jazz musician, as a creative genus, able to improvise prolifically on the basis of exquisite technique.

In describing my interest in him, I find myself repeating my proposed criteria for leadership in international schools in the 21st century. Coupled with those words from the Alchemist, I wonder where the world would be without such visionary leaders. Like Da Vinci and Delacroix before him, Picasso fused his imagination and knowledge into a potent force for positive change. He never stopped. As he grew older, his output only increased, as if to give thanks that his genius had been recognised.

It hadn’t always been so - his ‘Blue period’ is melancholy indeed but his determination and self-belief shone through. There was a time to do the right thing, and like Ghandi, Luther King and Mandela in politics, he was never afraid of the challenge. For true leaders, not doing the right thing is never an option. For impostors, it becomes the norm.
Next week: Poetry in Motion


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
A line to advise you that I will become Misterguinness/jameson for twenty-four hours on March 17th and will throw a leg.
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
Thank you for the advice. I will remember to stay away from Jameson’s Pub on March 17th. You can leave the bottle of French champagne and the box of Belgian chocolates you promised me about two years ago with Bob, the lovely chap behind the bar. As far as your leg throwing is concerned, have you consulted anybody about this problem? Is it leprosy? Or have you lost a leg already and the wooden one has Dutch Elm disease?
Dear Hillary,
Being a reader of the Mail for many years now I would like to offer my compliments on your advice column, “Heart to Heart with Hillary” and your straight-forward replies to your readers tempered with the Hillary wit.
I do not normally write to newspapers or expresses views to others unless requested, but would like to put forward my views on the much maligned Thai women expressed by many of your readers through the years. Throughout my many years of visiting and residing here I find both bad and good people, as in any country.
I became acquainted with Thailand during the Vietnam conflict and subsequently married a woman who had a ready-made family and took her back to my home country. After sixteen years of marriage she became addicted to gambling. After several years of fighting a losing battle, I gave up and obtained a divorce. I told her five children that I had adopted, raised and educated, that she was now their responsibility.
Since this was my second marriage, and I was now over 65, I decided to be selfish and think of myself for a change, so retired in Thailand. After about 6 to 8 months of drinking and frequenting all the local bars, my health failed and I returned to my home country for examinations. I was diagnosed with stomach cancer and after the shock wore off, I decided to return to Thailand and enjoy what time I had left in this world.
After my return, like many people that have received such news, I decided to visit places where I served in the military to recapture my youth and memories of more happy days. During one of these visits I met a young lady who was taking English courses and wanted to practice her conversation with a native speaker. We became friends and talked about many things including the negative experiences I had suffered in my own marriages.
After a year of a platonic relationship and meeting her family, she revealed one day that she felt more comfortable with me than she did with other men. I spent several weeks attempting to talk her out of concentrating on me. I was not successful and our friendship developed into something more serious.
We have been married for over three years now and she looks after me with more sincerity and devotion than I ever had in my previous marriages. We live in a rural village next to her family who all consider this May-December union normal. I do not deceive myself into thinking I am physically attractive to her. I provide security as well as stability within the extended family I am now a part of along with respecting the culture and customs of the region. I receive reciprocal respect and can truthfully say that I am happy and content for the first time in my life. I have not consumed any alcohol for three years and am now at peace in knowing that when I do pass on, there will be people around me that actually care.
I realize this is a long letter, but I wanted speak out in support of the Thai women (and answer the skeptics if you choose to print this letter). There are many good Thai women if you take the time to become acquainted with them and especially her family. Since life’s priorities are different in this country, even old men have a second chance at life.
Happy in Isaan
Dear Happy in Isaan,
Hillary is always pleased to hear about happy people. In this business, it is easy to fall into thinking that every farang is only living here with a ‘short time’ attitude, while bemoaning their fate. This is indeed a wonderful country and “even old men have a second chance at life” as you point out. The problem comes if these same “old men” seize at every floating straw, instead of waiting for the barge to come down the stream. You have the correct attitude when you write, “There are many good Thai women if you take the time to become acquainted with them.” The problem is the ‘short timers’ won’t take the time to get to know the lady and end up moaning for a much longer time. I am very glad you have found your second chance and are enjoying being in a two way relationship. In truth, the most important phrase in your letter is “reciprocal respect”. Without that, there is not a real relationship. I hope your skeptics are now answered.


Psychological Perspectives: Learned helplessness, learned optimism

by Michael Catalanello, Ph.D.

A cartoon by Leigh Rubin depicts a psychotherapist saying to his patient, “You seem to have trouble accepting responsibility.” The patient on the couch replies, “It’s my parents’ fault.”

When things go wrong in your life, do you accept the lion’s share of responsibility, or do you tend to pin the blame on other people or events? Do you view the world as being run by rich and powerful people behind the scenes, or can the “little people” like you and me make a real difference? Does getting ahead in life depend upon what you do or don’t do, or is it simply a matter of luck, of being in the right place at the right time? To what degree do you feel capable of bringing about important changes in your life? To what degree is your life controlled by chance or by outside factors?

Our answers to questions like these reflect something about our sense of personal control. According to research by social psychologists like Martin Seligman, our sense of personal control, in turn, is related to other important aspects of how we relate to the people and situations in our lives.

Seligman views events “as successes or failures of personal control.” He uses the term, “learned helplessness” to describe the mentality of a person who gives up, quitting some project or task out of a conviction that his efforts will likely be ineffective. A related idea is that of “explanatory style.” This refers to the strategy one habitually uses to understand the causes of various events. An optimistic explanatory style tends to view events as under one’s own control, and appears to protect one from feelings of helplessness. A pessimistic explanatory style promotes helplessness. Explanatory style, in Seligman’s view, is “a habit of thought learned in childhood and adolescence.”

The concept of learned helplessness is nicely illustrated by Seligman’s classical experiment using dogs as subjects. One dog was exposed to mild but uncomfortable shocks, but provided a means of escape. A second dog was given identical shocks, but not allowed to escape. A third dog was not shocked. The following day the dogs were placed in a shuttle box which consisted of two compartments, divided by a low barrier over which the animal could easily jump.

It didn’t take long for the dog that had previously learned to control shocks to discover that he could escape the shock by jumping over the barrier. The dog that had not been shocked likewise, quickly learned the escape procedure. The dog that had been exposed to uncontrollable shocks, however, never even tried to escape, despite being able to see over the barrier to the shock-free zone. In Seligman’s view, the dog that had the prior experience of being unable to control the shock had learned the lesson that its actions are futile. This lesson later affected its ability to initiate effective action when it became possible to escape the shocks.

Similar results have been produced in experiments designed for human subjects. Learning theorists have suggested that learned helplessness is the cognitive or “thought” component of the emotional disorder we know as clinical depression. Learned helplessness has been used to explain why some people seem to give up when faced with difficult, yet surmountable challenges. For example, it may shed light on the behavior of victims of domestic abuse who typically appear unwilling or unable to take available actions to remove themselves from daily contact with their abusers. The issue of domestic abuse is obviously a complex one, and learned helplessness is but one factor among several that may work against an individual in breaking free of this dangerous cycle of violence.

The good news is that helplessness, as a learned habit of thought, can also be unlearned, and optimism can be learned. This is done by developing an explanatory style more consistent with feelings of personal control and self-efficacy. So the next time you are tempted to hold your parents, family members, spouse, coworkers, boss, political leaders, fate, or God himself responsible for life’s adversities, think again. You may find that you are better able to cope with and resolve difficulties by first determining that a source of control resides within yourself.

Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University, Chonburi. Address questions and comments to him at [email protected]


Sound and Vision

By Justin Trousers

Following a positive response to last weeks column (thank you mother), here we are again suggesting alternatives to the usual fun city entertainments.

Music

In 1998 a band called Snow Patrol released an album called “Songs for Polar Bears”. This was the biggest marketing blunder since Ford marketed the Pinto in Brazil without realising that Pinto is Brazilian for “tiny male genitals”. Everyone knows that Polar Bears have lower than average disposable incomes, most of which they spend on fish; and when it comes to music they like to chill out to Jazz. Consequently, Songs for Polar Bears was a commercial failure, only registering limited interested at HMV Reykjavik. A follow up album in 2001 also bombed; making the title of their latest album “Final Straw” probably more an indication of desperation than an artistic statement. But with a new label and, more importantly, a new producer, Final Straw has launched Snow Patrol into the big time, and deservedly so. Comparisons with Coldplay have been made, but Snow Patrol have their own sound, driven by singer/writer Gary Lightbody whose distinctive Irish brogue permeates their angst-ridden songs. With an American tour and a support slot to U2 lined up for 2005, Snow Patrol are likely to grow in popularity. Get yourself down to your nearest music store and listen to tracks “Chocolate” and “Run” from the album and you will be converted to the growing fan base.

Movies

Constantine

I was prepared not to enjoy this movie. Keanu Reeves is not a great actor, the movie is based upon the characters from a comic (and how often does Hollywood screw that up?) and it is a first time film from a music video director; not a promising foundation for a good night out. But I was wrong; this is a fun film.

Reeves plays a troubled man who is destined for hell having once tried to commit suicide, is dying from lung cancer and has the unfortunate ability to be able to see the “half-breeds” who live among us; emissaries from heaven and hell out to spoil the balance of power on earth (this explains the punters at some of the bars in Pattaya). He uses this ability to dispatch the bad guys back to hell in the hope of earning a reprieve from the warmer version of the afterlife. Doesn’t sound like fun, does it? But the film never takes itself too seriously; is laced with black humour, has an excellent cast of eccentric characters and uses special effects to complement the story rather than just adding some eye candy. Movies with good versus evil themes often end up with a pompous finale featuring glowing lights and heavenly choirs. Constantine avoids this with a clever, quirky ending (which sets up nicely for a sequel) and leaves us with the simple messages that smoking and suicide are not good for you; and the devil has terrible dress sense and is in urgent need of dental care.

DVD

My companion, muse and personal drill sergeant, Miss Julie, has a weakness for shoe shops. In fact she finds it impossible to walk past one and will spend many happy hours in the quest for the perfect shoe of divine loveliness. Not being my idea of a good time, I point excitedly to a particularly garish pair in the back of the shop and, when she is distracted, I escape to the nearest video store to browse their DVDs.

There is a wide selection of reasonably priced titles available nowadays, often as low as 70 baht, and they are not all rubbish. Admittedly a depressingly large number feature actors such as Steven Seagal, whose presence in a movie is almost certainly a guarantee of mediocrity and who nowadays seems to be growing himself in preparation for playing a barrage balloon in a future World War II epic.

But there are some gems and one way of finding them is to watch out for collections of laurel leaves on the cover, as if the movie had participated in the Olympics and cleaned up the track and field events. These actually indicate recognition of the movie at one of the many movie festivals around the world. The fact that movie buffs somewhere found this movie worthwhile must indicate some level of quality. Two I have picked up recently come from very different countries; but both offer a different and interesting slant on the coming of age story.

Whale Rider

Whale Rider is based in a small town in New Zealand and tells the story of a young girl’s struggle to gain acceptance as a female in a male dominated Maori society. With the wide angle green gorgeousness of NZ as a backdrop, Whale Rider weaves a mythical tale with humour and a lightness of touch which draws you into the story and the characters. Outstanding in the lead role is Keisha Castle-Hughes who was picked from a primary school classroom for the role and became the youngest ever actress to be nominated for an Oscar. With a choice of Thai or English soundtrack and subtitles; this is an intelligent, entertaining movie that couples can enjoy together.

Noi Albinoi

Noi Albinoi is also based in a small town; but this time on the coast of Iceland. Noi is a bright but disaffected young man desperate to escape to a better life, preferably in the company of the attractive attendant at the local petrol station. The bleak, snow laden landscape is a fitting backdrop for Noi and the eccentric occupants of the town who touch his life. Although slow paced, there are many extremely funny moments and a continual building of tension; although the climax of the movie is most unexpected. Some warnings about the DVD cover. It states that the movie is in French but it is in Icelandic (not surprisingly), with an additional Thai language track with English and Thai subtitles. Also, the photos on the back cover hint at an extremely violent movie, but this is not the case at all so do not be put off (or disappointed, if extreme violence is your thing). I enjoyed it immensely and I understand that it has quite a cult following among Icelandic Polar Bears.




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