BANGKOK, Thailand – Danucha Pichayanan, Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), acknowledged the need to reassess Thailand’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 following unsuccessful trade negotiations with the United States. Speaking at the 2025 Senior Economic Journalists Development Program under the theme “Understanding Global Finance, Debt Relief, and Sustainability,” he emphasized that multiple factors influence GDP projections, and various scenarios remain possible.
Originally, the NESDC had forecast GDP growth between 1.3% and 2.3%, with a midpoint of 1.8%, assuming that Thailand would face the highest retaliatory tariff rate of 36% and no changes from other countries. However, Vietnam recently negotiated a reduced tariff rate of 20%, prompting the need to monitor other countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia. The key uncertainty remains how much tariff Thailand will be subject to, which could range from 10% to 36%. Therefore, assumptions underlying GDP estimates are numerous and require careful consideration.
Danucha stated, “At this point, all possibilities exist. No one can predict the mindset of President Donald Trump. If asked what the GDP will be from here on, given the uncertainty about the tariff rate Thailand might face, there are many assumptions involved in the calculation.”
Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the main risk to the economy lies in export performance, which depends heavily on tariff negotiations with the U.S. Nevertheless, positive factors support the outlook, including a rebound in private sector investment and a stable number of foreign tourists, despite a decline in Chinese visitors. Notably, tourist spending has increased. Public investment also remains a crucial driver, with government spending expected to be fully utilized to stimulate the economy.
Danucha also addressed the economic stimulus budget of 157 billion baht, noting that over 40 billion baht worth of projects have been submitted to the Budget Bureau system. These projects, proposed by various provinces and provincial groups, will be evaluated to determine their effectiveness in mitigating economic impacts. The NESDC will carefully review project details to avoid duplication, as some information currently does not align with the Budget Bureau’s records. These projects will be prioritized for approval, followed by the consideration of other proposals. (TNA)
