BANGKOK, Thailand – Although many are aware that Thailand is heading toward an economic downturn this year, the outlook is particularly grim. Multiple agencies predict that the GDP will grow less than 2%, with the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) forecasting just 1.8% growth and Kasikorn Research Center projecting only 1.4%. These figures signal the likelihood of a full-fledged economic crisis by Q3 or the end of 2025.
Thailand is already trailing other ASEAN countries in economic growth, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, and even Laos. Shockingly, international observers had previously projected that Thailand’s economic growth would be slower than Myanmar’s, despite Myanmar grappling with internal conflict.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and leaders from the ruling Pheu Thai Party have consistently attributed Thailand’s economic struggles to long-standing issues exacerbated by past military coups. They also cite global factors such as U.S. trade wars initiated under Donald Trump’s presidency. However, critics argue that these explanations are losing credibility. Paetongtarn is now facing a growing crisis of confidence, with questions mounting over her maturity and competence—damaging not just her administration but also the Pheu Thai Party’s reputation as a party of “economic professionals.”
One of the most damaging policy failures has been the delayed and now seemingly scrapped 10,000-baht digital wallet handout. Once the flagship policy of the Pheu Thai campaign, it has suffered repeated postponements and budget reallocations. Although officially postponed, observers widely believe it has been effectively cancelled due to a lack of funds.
A recent NIDA Poll conducted on May 7–8, reveals that 83.66% of Thais believe the country is in a severe economic crisis requiring urgent solutions, while 47.17% say they need immediate government assistance. Despite the uncertain status of the digital wallet scheme, over half the population still wants the government to proceed with it this year—57.25% support the rollout for youth aged 16–20 (Phase 3), and 62.98% support Phase 4 for those aged 21–59.
However, if the government cancels the digital handout altogether, 54.12% of respondents say they wouldn’t be angry, while 32.68% would feel some degree of anger.
The results paint a picture of a nation struggling under economic pressure, yet still showing a degree of understanding toward the government. But as livelihoods continue to be impacted, the bigger question remains: Can this administration truly deliver, or is public trust slipping beyond repair?
