BANGKOK, Thailand – An academic predicts that Thailand’s GDP could expand close to or above 2.5% this year after the Constitutional Court ruled that a 400-billion-baht emergency loan decree does not violate the constitution, provided the government can accelerate disbursement into the economy as planned. The Constitutional Court ruled 7-2 on Thursday that the Emergency Decree Authorizing the Ministry of Finance to Raise Loans for Crisis Resolution and Energy Transition B.E. 2569 (2026) is constitutional. The court deemed the decree an urgent emergency necessary to maintain the country’s economic security, allowing the government to proceed with its measures.
Thanavath Phonvichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and Chief Advisor to the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, said that if the decree proceeds as planned, it will accelerate investments in energy transition, including electric vehicles (EVs) and solar rooftop installations. This could serve as an additional economic driver in the second half of the year.
However, Thanavath noted that clear details regarding the timeline and specific supply-side support remain unavailable. It is also unclear how the budget will be allocated quarterly, particularly concerning EV procurement and solar installations for government agencies, which require procurement processes that could delay implementation beyond this year. Furthermore, because EVs and solar panels rely partly on imports, a portion of the funds could leak out of the country despite some local assembly and raw material sourcing.
Thanavath estimated that with efficient project implementation and timely budget disbursement, the Thai economy could grow close to or above 2.5% in 2026. If delayed, growth will likely remain within the 2% to 2.5% range, or around 2.1% to 2.3% as projected by various agencies. External factors remain a key risk, particularly geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. If the situation does not escalate and crude oil prices remain below $80 per barrel, combined with the government’s stimulus measures, the Thai economy is expected to continue recovering in the second half of the year toward its growth targets. (TNA)
