New COVID-19 outbreaks and fuel prices risk to Thailand’s growth

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The reopening of the country to international tourists, have prompted the research house of CIMB Thai Bank to raise its growth projection for the Thai economy to 1.1% for 2021 and 3.8% for 2022.

Ongoing efforts to stimulate the Thai economy, especially the reopening of the country to international tourists, have prompted the research house of CIMB Thai Bank to raise its growth projection for the Thai economy to 1.1% for 2021 and 3.8% for 2022.



Mr. Amonthep Chawla, assistant managing director of CIMB Thai Bank, said CIMB has revised its growth projection for the Thai economy to 1.1% this year, from 0.4% earlier. The upward revision was due to improved efficiency in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the country and economic stimulation measures, especially the reopening to international tourists.


For 2022, the bank now predicts a 3.8% growth in GDP instead of 3.2% previously, owing to 3 support factors. The first of the factors is exports, which are expected to grow by 4.7% because of continued recovery in exports of electronics, automobiles and parts, and rubber products. Tourism is the second factor, with the bank expecting 5.1 million international tourists to arrive in Thailand in 2022. The third factor is increased purchasing power, owing to the lifting of Covid restrictions.



Mr. Amornthep also noted risk factors that may affect the Thai economy. These include renewed outbreaks of Covid in Thailand or major trade partners, ongoing conflicts between the United States and China, and inflation issues stemming from rising fuel and fresh food prices.

CIMB Thai viewed that the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is likely to retain the 0.5% policy interest rate throughout 2022. (NNT)

Amornthep said the risk factors that may affect the Thai economy include renewed outbreaks of Covid in Thailand or major trade partners, ongoing conflicts between the United States and China, and inflation issues stemming from rising fuel and fresh food prices.