BANGKOK, Thailand – The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has assessed that Thailand’s economic and industrial outlook for 2026 will continue to face significant pressures from global financial volatility, geopolitical tensions, stricter trade and environmental policies, and long-standing domestic structural constraints—described as a “perfect storm” affecting industrial competitiveness.
FTI Chairman Kriengkrai Thiennukul stated that the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) expects Thailand’s economy to grow by 1.6–2.0% in 2026, down from around 2.0% in 2025. Manufacturing remains under pressure, with the Manufacturing Production Index not fully aligned with export growth. Capacity utilisation in several industries is below 60%, compared with a standard range of 70–80%.
Key challenges include smuggling, transshipment, and an influx of low-priced imports, which erode competitiveness and force production cuts. SMEs continue to face high costs for energy, materials, wages, and finance, along with elevated household debt that limits purchasing power. Exports in 2026 are expected to contract by 1.5% to 0.5% due to trade conflicts, policy uncertainty, stricter environmental measures, and Thai–Cambodian border tensions, which could impact border trade valued at over 140 billion baht.
Structural issues such as low-value-added exports, currency volatility, and compliance costs from measures like CBAM and EUDR continue to add financial burdens, particularly for SMEs. However, there are positive signs from increased investment in target industries, including digital, EVs, electronics, processed food, and clean energy, with over 1.3 trillion baht in investment applications in the first nine months of 2025.
FTI stated that 2026 will present both challenges and opportunities, and stressed the need for Thailand to strengthen its economic foundations under the CRS framework: Competitiveness, Resilience, and Sustainability. This involves upgrading industry through innovation, technology, and human capital; enhancing resilience through supply chain diversification and structural reform; and promoting sustainable growth aligned with ESG principles, the circular economy, clean energy, and the Net Zero 2050 goal.
FTI emphasized the need to mobilize all sectors under the “ONE Thailand” concept to turn global pressures into opportunities, strengthen long-term competitiveness, and achieve stable, sustainable growth for the Thai economy. (NNT)
