BANGKOK, Thailand – The Bank of Thailand (BOT) indicates that the forecasted 2026 GDP growth of 2.3% remains far below potential, with some economic sectors recovering while others continue to decline. Don Nakornthab, assistant governor for the monetary policy group, stated that although the central bank’s 2.3% growth projection for 2026 is currently the highest in the market and better than previously forecasted, it is not a good figure. This is because it remains quite far from Thailand’s economic potential.
Furthermore, there is an underlying inequality, with the recovery being K-shaped. This means some sectors are recovering while others continue to decline, with strength concentrated only in the export and technology sectors. As a result, economic benefits do not reach the majority of the population. Regarding inflation, the risk has decreased moderately after global oil prices began returning to pre-war levels. However, risk factors cannot be ruled out yet due to three major factors: the incomplete cost pass-through from producers to consumers; the El Nino phenomenon, which will affect the climate and cause fresh food prices to rise during the third and fourth quarters of this year; and the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East situation, which could affect oil prices at any time. (TNA)
