PATTAYA, Thailand – The Thai baht weakened last week, moving against the trend of most Asian currencies, as investors monitored key domestic and global economic factors. Kasikorn Research expects the baht to trade in a range of 32.00–32.80 per U.S. dollar in the week of October 6–10, influenced by four main factors: Thailand’s September inflation data, the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting on October 8, global gold prices, and foreign fund flows.
The baht reached 32.53 per dollar, its weakest level in over a month since August 28, amid net foreign selling in Thai financial markets and technical selling pressure. The currency briefly strengthened during the week due to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and concerns over the potential impact of the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1. However, gains were limited, and the baht slipped again due to a lack of new catalysts.
Foreign Investment and Market Impact:
Between September 29 and October 3, foreign investors sold a net 3.53 billion baht of Thai stocks and had net outflows of 279 million baht from Thai bonds.
Thai Stock Market Performance:
The SET Index showed volatility last week but closed higher, supported by regional market trends and encouraging U.S. economic data that bolstered expectations for further Fed rate cuts. Mid-week declines were driven by profit-taking in big-cap stocks, especially electronics, energy, and bank sectors, amid Fitch’s credit outlook adjustments. By Friday, October 3, the SET Index closed at 1,293.61 points, up 1.16% from the previous week, with average daily trading value of 38.77 billion baht, a 6.56% increase. The mai Index fell 1.81% to 246.19 points.
Outlook for the Week:
Kasikorn Securities identifies support levels at 1,270 and 1,245 points and resistance at 1,300 and 1,315 points for the SET Index. Analysts are closely monitoring:
-Bank of Thailand policy meeting (October 8)
-September consumer price index (CPI)
-U.S. government shutdown developments
-Statements from the Fed Chair and officials
-Foreign capital flows
-Other global economic data, including Eurozone retail sales (August) and Japan’s producer price index (September)
With global uncertainty, including the ongoing U.S. shutdown, and movements in gold markets and foreign fund flows, the baht’s weakness is likely to persist in the near term, with investors keeping a close eye on these key indicators.
