PATTAYA, Thailand – Krung Thai Bank expects the Thai baht to trade within a range of 32.30 to 33.00 against the US dollar this week, with analysts warning that the currency is facing renewed pressure from global uncertainty, fragile market sentiment, and shifting investor demand for safe-haven assets. Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS said the baht opened Monday morning, May 18, at 32.72 per dollar, weakening slightly from last week’s close of 32.62. Since late Friday, the currency has gradually depreciated toward the 32.75–32.85 range amid concerns surrounding stalled ceasefire negotiations involving the United States and Iran.
Analysts said momentum behind the baht’s weakness has strengthened again after the recent Trump-Xi summit failed to produce clear outcomes regarding geopolitical tensions and ceasefire discussions. Although dividend-related capital outflows from foreign investors have slowed, the bank warned that the baht could continue weakening toward the psychologically important 33.00 level if uncertainty remains elevated. The report also highlighted upcoming earnings results from Nvidia as another major factor that could shake global financial markets. Strong earnings and optimistic guidance from the chip giant could improve investor appetite for risk assets and help slow the dollar’s rise. However, disappointing results could trigger another wave of risk-off sentiment across global markets.
Krungthai analysts also urged investors to closely watch movements in the Japanese yen, which could strengthen sharply if global investors flee toward safer assets. At the same time, a renewed weakening of the yen may increase the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities. The bank warned that the baht currently faces “two-way risk,” meaning the currency could swing rapidly in either direction depending on geopolitical developments and market sentiment. As a result, businesses and investors have been advised to prepare for continued volatility and consider more sophisticated hedging strategies, including options-based protection. From a technical perspective, analysts said the baht remains in a weakening trend and would need to strengthen clearly below the 32.00 level against the dollar to signal a reversal. Until then, the currency is expected to remain volatile or continue drifting weaker within a broad trading range.
