PATTAYA, Thailand – For decades, Thailand stood as Southeast Asia’s unrivaled tourism powerhouse. Cities like Bangkok dazzled with temples and street food, while island destinations like Phuket and Pattaya catered to everyone from luxury seekers to backpackers and retirees. But as 2025 unfolds, a new reality is setting in: Thailand may no longer be the region’s top draw—and Pattaya is a mirror of that shifting landscape.
In 2019, Thailand welcomed an astonishing 40 million foreign tourists, with Pattaya playing a major role thanks to its beach life, nightlife, and affordability. Fast-forward to today, and the country’s Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has scaled back expectations, aiming for 35.5 million visitors in 2025—but even that number may be out of reach.
According to Channel News Asia, Thailand is now being overtaken. Malaysia attracted 38 million tourists, and Japan 36.9 million in the same period. Meanwhile, Thailand remains locked at 35.5 million, with a 3% drop in visitors during the first half of 2025 compared to last year.
Despite efforts to pivot from mass tourism to a “quality over quantity” strategy—aimed at high-spending travelers—the cracks are visible. And Pattaya, once a reliable magnet for European and Asian tourists alike, is struggling to adapt.
Perhaps the biggest loss is China, but why they are not coming.
In 2019, over 11 million Chinese tourists visited Thailand. But in the first five months of 2025, that number plummeted to under 2 million—a sharp drop even from 2024. For Pattaya, which once saw Chinese tour groups packing the streets and malls, the absence is deeply felt.
Several tourism analysts point to compounding challenges: rising safety concerns, evolving consumer behavior—especially from China—and a lack of fresh innovation in Thailand’s tourism offerings. They warn that 2025 marks a critical inflection point for the country, urging a re-evaluation of long-term goals.
Thailand, they argue, must rethink its approach. The ambition to return to 40 million tourists may not only be unrealistic—it could serve as a distraction from more sustainable and meaningful progress.
Others in the industry agree, noting that even reaching the official 35.5 million target will be difficult amid global economic uncertainty, shifting flight patterns due to international conflicts, and waning consumer confidence.
“You don’t need a miracle to hit 40 million,” an analyst says. “You need to step back and reassess how Thailand is using the assets it already has.”
One of the biggest blows to Chinese confidence in Thailand came in early 2025, when Chinese actor Wang Xing was lured through Thailand into a scam compound in Myanmar—a case that made international headlines and tarnished Thailand’s image as a safe transit hub.
That followed the 2023 Siam Paragon shooting, where a Chinese tourist was killed in a random mall shooting. Together, these events have raised alarm among Chinese travelers, particularly in group tours and among families.
Analysts also note that ongoing border disputes with Cambodia, political protests, and recent reports of suspected explosive devices in Southern Thailand have only deepened the perception that Thailand’s stability is in question—a crucial concern for Chinese tourists when choosing their destinations.
In the absence of Chinese mass tourism, Thailand is doubling down on “quality” visitors—a strategy that includes pushing long-haul flights, promoting sports tourism, culture festivals, and eco-adventures.
TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool insists this pivot is bearing some fruit. She notes increased arrivals from Germany, Italy, the UK, Australia, and the Gulf states, citing these visitors as high spenders that can help fill the economic gap left by the Chinese.
Dr. Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, Chief Economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, warns that chasing high-end tourists alone carries risks of over-dependence on niche markets. He also cautions against attempts to legalize entertainment complexes with casinos as a solution, noting the potential social costs could outweigh the benefits.
At the same time, some observers point to the outdated nature of parts of Thailand’s tourism infrastructure. They argue that the era of large-scale Chinese group tours and charter flights from secondary Chinese cities—once the backbone of Pattaya’s tourism—may now be over.
Thailand must now demonstrate why travelers should return. As some industry voices put it, the current experience feels too similar to what it was a decade ago—lacking the freshness or innovation to excite repeat visitors.
What About Pattaya?
Pattaya’s rebranding efforts—from promoting water sports and international festivals to its nightlife-lite makeovers—show promise but lack depth and consistency. It remains too reliant on short-term tourism fixes like visa waivers and influencer campaigns rather than long-term infrastructure and safety investments.
In April, the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) pushed the government to subsidize 1,000 flights from 20 Chinese cities to rekindle demand. They’ve also partnered with Baidu on AI-driven digital marketing and launched campaigns like “Thailand Summer Blast” and “Sawadee Nihao”, aimed at wooing quality Chinese travelers.
Still, as Assoc. Prof. Dr. Krittinee Nattawutthisit from Chulalongkorn University’s Sasin School of Management points out, the next generation of Chinese tourists isn’t interested in cookie-cutter tour buses. They want authentic, immersive experiences and a deeper connection with local communities.
“Thailand must evolve beyond the same old tourism model,” she says. “Gen Z Chinese travelers are looking for unique, tangible adventures.”
A Regional Tourism Battlefield
Pattaya doesn’t just compete with Phuket or Bangkok. It competes with Da Nang, Penang, and Bali. And the region is heating up fast.
Malaysia, for example, just extended visa-free stays for Chinese tourists by five years. Vietnam has ramped up e-visas, flight routes, and even reopened the Nanning–Hanoi train line. Meanwhile, Thailand’s visa policy remains tangled in red tape and confusion.
One expert summed up the challenge this way: “It’s not just about opening the front door to welcome tourists—you also have to lock the back door to keep them from leaving for somewhere else.”
ATTA has already revised Thailand’s tourism revenue forecast for 2025, dropping it from $69 billion to $60 billion, largely due to the missing Chinese market. The message is clear: no single market can save Thailand—but no market can replace China either.
And while Thailand’s current tourism slogan—“Quality over quantity”—sounds aspirational, critics argue it often lacks clear substance. The message may resonate in theory, but it will only succeed if the on-the-ground experience truly justifies higher prices. As one industry insider put it, “You don’t need to change the whole approach—but you do need to do it better.”
Pattaya, like the rest of Thailand, is facing a tourism identity crisis. Should it chase old numbers and outdated models? Or should it reinvent itself with depth, safety, and smarter storytelling?
The path forward isn’t easy, but it’s also not impossible.
If Thailand can truly focus on value, authenticity, and innovation, it may not need to chase 40 million visitors again. Instead, it could build a more resilient, rewarding industry—one that keeps people coming back, not just clicking “book now.”
Because in the end, tourism isn’t about how many came—it’s about who stays, who returns, and what they tell the world when they leave.
