PATTAYA, Thailand – The sudden deterioration in China–Japan relations has raised eyebrows across Asia. Once a routine “top destination” for Chinese tourists, Japan has now become a geopolitical flashpoint after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi indicated that Japan could deploy military force if China attacked Taiwan, signaling a hardening of Tokyo’s stance on regional security.
For years, Japan has topped the list of destinations for Chinese travelers. During China’s recent National Day holiday, it even surpassed Thailand, which has occasionally faced tourism scandals and infrastructure challenges. But Beijing’s travel warnings now threaten to disrupt this dynamic.
China’s Embassy in Japan described Takaichi’s statements as “openly provocative,” warning that the safety of Chinese citizens in Japan could be “seriously at risk” and urging citizens to avoid the country. The embassy also summoned the Japanese ambassador for a formal protest, marking a rare escalation in diplomatic language.
Observers say these moves are part of a broader Chinese foreign policy pattern. Over the past year, Beijing has actively promoted anti-Japanese sentiment—commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and reinforcing domestic unity under President Xi Jinping, particularly amid his strong stance on Taiwan. Provocations, such as Japanese leaders visiting Taiwanese representatives or discussing military interventions, are framed as affronts to Chinese sovereignty and historical memory.
Yet the escalation comes at a cost. Japan risks losing a significant portion of its lucrative Chinese tourist market, which benefits retail, hospitality, and regional airlines, just as international travel rebounds post-pandemic.
Implications for Thailand
Thailand, a longtime beneficiary of Chinese outbound tourism, could see an indirect windfall. Pattaya, Bangkok, Phuket, and Chiang Mai may attract travelers who might otherwise have gone to Japan. Chinese tourists typically travel in large groups, spend generously on shopping and excursions, and extend the tourism season during peak periods.
This potential is reinforced by strong diplomatic ties between Thailand and China. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul met with President Xi Jinping at the recent APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in South Korea, building personal rapport and discussing tourism, trade, and infrastructure cooperation. During the meeting, Anutin also pledged to cease Thailand’s casino legalization policy, a move welcomed by Beijing. Just last week, the Thai King and Queen made a historic royal visit to China, further solidifying bilateral ties.
Analysts suggest that these close relations and policy adjustments could encourage Chinese tourists to view Thailand as a safe and politically neutral alternative. But the benefits are not guaranteed. Thailand must ensure infrastructure, safety, and visa facilitation are ready to handle an influx. Past issues—including scams, inconsistent enforcement, and variable service standards—have sometimes dampened visitor satisfaction.
A Balancing Act
Geopolitical tensions often ripple beyond diplomacy, affecting tourism, local economies, and travel patterns. With Chinese travelers now warned against Japan, Thailand could capture a short-term boost—but only if it can maintain quality, safety, and reliable services for cautious visitors.
