BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand’s tourism industry risks losing further ground to Asian rivals, particularly Vietnam, as 59.1% of tourism operators surveyed believe the country is less competitive than its regional competitors.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) forecasts that foreign arrivals will fall to 31.5 million in 2026, down 4.5% from nearly 33 million last year. The figure is also below its earlier projection of 32–34 million.
UTCC President Thanavath Phonvichai said tourism remains a major driver of the Thai economy, but the industry faces mounting pressure from higher energy and air travel costs linked to the Middle East conflict, as well as domestic shortcomings that make Thailand less attractive to visitors.
Foreign arrivals are expected to recover by 7.9% to around 34 million in 2027, generating an estimated 1.632 trillion baht in tourism revenue. However, the forecast ranges from 32.57 million visitors in a worst-case scenario to 35.44 million in the most optimistic outlook.
A survey of 368 tourism operators found that 52.2% believed Thailand’s competitiveness had improved over the past three years. However, 59.1% said the country still lagged behind Asian rivals. Operators identified value for money, safety perceptions, law enforcement and flight capacity among Thailand’s main weaknesses. Service and hospitality remained its strongest advantage, cited by 65.2%.
Vietnam is emerging as a particularly strong competitor. During the first nine months of 2026, Russian arrivals to Vietnam rose 160.6% to approximately 1.13 million, while Thailand received around 1.27 million, little changed from the previous year. Vietnam also recorded increases of 33% in Indian visitors and 18.1% in Malaysian visitors.
By comparison, arrivals to Thailand from Malaysia fell 15.2%, South Korea 25.4% and India 2.5% over the same period. China was the only one of Thailand’s five major markets to grow, recording a 15.2% increase.
Operators called on the government to increase direct flights and airline seats, improve border crossing procedures, clarify visa policies and address safety concerns. More than 40 million foreign visitors, a level Thailand reached before the pandemic, may not return until 2031 or later, according to the survey.
