BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand’s private sector has raised its forecast for economic growth in 2026, citing stronger-than-expected exports and private investment, while warning that the benefits of these gains are flowing less into the domestic economy than in the past.
Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association and chairman of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), said the committee now expects Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 2.1–2.5% this year, up from its previous forecast of 1.6–2.0%.
The committee also raised its forecast for export growth to 12–16%, from 8–10% previously. Its forecast for headline inflation remains unchanged at 2.5–3.0%. The improved outlook reflects stronger momentum from exports and private investment, both of which have performed better than previously expected. However, the JSCCIB said the impact of export and investment growth on the wider domestic economy has clearly weakened.
In the past, export growth averaging around 14% and investment growth of about 10% were associated with average GDP growth of around 6–7%. The committee said the weaker relationship today reflects Thailand’s declining ability to capture value domestically. A major factor is the country’s high reliance on imported components, which means a greater share of the value generated by exports and investment does not remain within the Thai economy. New investment is also creating fewer jobs than in previous periods of strong growth. The JSCCIB said Thailand therefore needs to remain firmly on the global investment radar while making greater use of the opportunities created by new investment.
Data centres were cited as one example. Each 100 megawatts of data-centre investment represents more than 60 billion baht, but the committee said Thailand needs to build a wider ecosystem around such projects so that investment creates stronger links throughout the supply chain. This includes developing upstream and downstream businesses, promoting vertical integration, upgrading industries through smart manufacturing and preparing workers with the skills needed for new technologies. The committee also stressed the need to make better use of data to develop emerging industries, including the creative economy, so that new investment produces a more significant impact on the domestic economy.
The JSCCIB has therefore appointed a dedicated data-centre working group to help develop the sector and ensure Thailand gains the maximum possible economic benefit from the investment.
The Bank of Thailand has also reported stronger-than-previously-expected economic momentum, with merchandise exports and private investment linked to the technology and AI cycle among the factors supporting growth. Despite the improved outlook, the private sector’s warning highlights a deeper challenge for Thailand: stronger headline export and investment figures do not automatically translate into equally strong domestic income, employment and value creation.
