BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand’s baht and stock market are expected to face a closely watched week from October 26–30, with investors monitoring monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Thailand, the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks, alongside foreign capital flows and economic data. Kasikorn Research Center expects the baht to trade within a range of 33.30–33.80 to the US dollar next week, after weakening to 33.73 on October 22, its lowest level in three months.
The baht came under pressure during the October 19–22 trading period amid rising global oil prices linked to concerns over the Middle East, selling of gold in international markets and a stronger US dollar. Investors were also weighing the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in December, although markets expected it to hold rates at its October 27–28 meeting.
The baht closed at 33.72 per dollar on October 22, compared with 33.50 a week earlier.
Foreign investors were net buyers of Thai shares worth 3.014 billion baht and recorded net inflows of 9.804 billion baht into the Thai bond market between October 19 and 22.
Key events next week include the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting on October 28, the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28, the European Central Bank meeting on October 29 and the Bank of Japan meeting on October 29–30.
Investors will also monitor Thailand’s September export figures and monthly economic and financial report, along with US data covering durable goods orders, new home sales, September personal consumption expenditures inflation, third-quarter gross domestic product and weekly jobless claims. Developments in the Middle East, China’s September industrial profits and third-quarter eurozone GDP will also be in focus.
Thai stocks remain under pressure
The Stock Exchange of Thailand continued to decline during the October 19–22 period, with early-week selling driven by concerns that higher oil prices could fuel inflation and influence interest-rate decisions. Electronics stocks also weakened in line with overseas technology markets. The market recovered part of its losses midway through the week, supported by foreign buying in banking and tourism shares, but gains remained limited ahead of the long weekend.
The SET Index closed at 1,562.67 points on October 22, down 0.66% from the previous week. Average daily trading value fell 0.11% to 64.95 billion baht. The Market for Alternative Investment (mai) index ended at 219.71 points, down 0.46%. For October 26–30, Kasikorn Securities expects the SET Index to find support at 1,555 and 1,540 points, with resistance at 1,590 and 1,605 points.
Market direction will depend on the Thai and US central bank meetings, September exports, third-quarter earnings from listed Thai companies, developments in the Middle East and foreign investment flows. Investors will also assess economic releases from the United States and China, as well as policy decisions in Europe and Japan. With several major central bank meetings and important economic indicators due within days, currency and equity markets are likely to remain sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations and global risk sentiment.
