BANGKOK, 18 July 2012 – The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has lowered its economic growth estimation for this year from earlier predicted at 5.9% to 5.6%, citing global economic crisis and domestic political situation as influential factors.
UTCC’s Center for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF) Director, Thanawat Polvichai, said the initial assumption of the global economic recovery in the first quarter did not happen. In contrast, he explained that the economy has been worsened, while political situation in Thailand has been unstable at best.
Dr Thanawat added that the increase of product prices and lower-than-expected export figures have also contributed to a lower economic growth speculation. He stated that private and public investments and the tourism sector will be the driving forces, helping push the Thai economic expansion to 5.5-6%.
As for the international trade, The CEBF Director estimated that Thai export will expand by 8.7% this year, valued at 245 billion US dollars, while import value will be around 238 billion dollars. From the evaluation, the nation could have a positive trade balance of 6.6 billion dollars.
Concerning the inflation rate, Dr Thanawat said it would stay around 3.4% this year, thanks to the government’s policies that help control the rate.