Economist Richard Duncan, who has written The New Depression, a book explaining why he believes civilisation is heading for disaster not known since the Second World War, will be in Bangkok on 5th November as part of an MBMG-sponsored dinner discussion, entitled ‘What the Future Holds’.
Duncan puts this pessimistic outlook down to the global economy’s reliance on credit, rather than capital. He suggests that for over 100 years, the so-called capitalist economic system has in fact been what he calls ‘creditism’.
His reasoning behind this distinction is that in traditional capitalism, the government played very little role. The growth dynamic was driven by businessmen who invest, make profit and then save or accumulate capital to achieve further growth.
However, nowadays the cycle is to create credit, consume and then create more credit. This has facilitated rapid economic growth and globalisation; yet we are at a point where the economy cannot expand any further because the private sector cannot survive with any more debt.
Duncan points out that this is what happened in the early twentieth century, when the European powers borrowed gold from the US to fund their participation in the First World War, racking up a massive budget deficit. This eventually led to the Great Depression and ultimately the rise in political extremism and the Second World War.
Duncan explains that he can see three possible ways forward, only one of which will avert disaster: for governments to continue borrowing money but actually use that money on modern technologies instead of spending it on over-consumption and fighting wars.
Another of the speakers, MBMG Managing Partner Paul Gambles, will be guest hosting on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Wednesday. See CNBC.com for more details.
With these thoughts in mind, it will certainly be a fascinating discussion in Bangkok.
Save the date
5th November – What the Future Holds, Sheraton Grande Sukhumvit, Bangkok, registration 6.30pm, starts 7pm.
A dinner discussion with the 3 Bears in Bangkok! Three of the 20 economists in the world who forecasted the events of 2008 will speak on what the future holds for the global economy.
Sponsored by MBMG, Stanley Gibbons, Belvedere, Money Channel, AustCham, BCCT, The Nation AMCHAM, Precipio and Pattaya Mail.
For information on where to get tickets and discounts e-mail Noey at marketing @mbmg-international.com