KResearch: Next year’s GDP hinges on political stability

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BANGKOK, 13 December 2013 Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) forecasts that the country’s GDP growth will grow 4.5 percent next year if the political situation remains stable. 

Dr. Charl Kengchon, managing director of Kasikorn Research Center, said the political situation would have a tremendous impact on the economy. He said there were 4 possible scenarios to the current situation.

Firstly, he said if the next government was established within the first 6 months of next year and the government was able to immediately boost the economy, Thai exports could grow at the percentage of 7, causing the GDP to grow 4.5 percent for the entire year.

Secondly, he said if the next government was set up in the first six months but could not right away trigger the economy, the Thai exports would grow 5 percent and the GDP would grow approximately 3 percent.

In the third scenario, if the government was formed later than the first 6 months of 2014, the country’s GDP growth would be around 2.5 percent due to delays in various government projects and budget disbursements.

And in the worst-case scenario in which the current political conflict dragged on, a new government was unable to be formed, and the country’s export growth was less than 3 percent, the country’s GDP growth would be as low as 0.5 percent, the managing director concluded