BANGKOK, Thailand — Thailand’s economy is expected to grow 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, supported by a new investment cycle, strong electronics exports and foreign investment in digital and technology industries, according to SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC).
However, the recovery is becoming increasingly uneven, with the benefits concentrated among certain industries, larger businesses and skilled workers while many SMEs, informal workers and lower-income households continue to face financial pressure.
SCB EIC said the global AI investment cycle is providing an important new engine for the economy. Demand for electronics is supporting exports, while foreign direct investment is flowing into areas including electronics, data centres and digital infrastructure.
The impact on the wider domestic economy remains limited, however. Many of these industries rely heavily on imported capital goods, raw materials and intermediate products, reducing the amount of value added retained domestically. Their links with Thai suppliers and workers also remain relatively limited. As a result, stronger exports and investment have not yet translated fully into higher domestic income, employment and purchasing power.
The uneven recovery is particularly visible among SMEs and businesses dependent on domestic demand. Many continue to face weak income, falling profit margins, liquidity problems, tighter access to credit and stronger competition, limiting their ability to invest and adopt new technologies.
The labour market is also divided. Skilled and formal workers are recovering more strongly than informal workers, while lower-income households remain under pressure from slow income growth, high debt and limited financial buffers.
SCB EIC said this K-shaped recovery could become a constraint on future growth if investment and export gains fail to generate broader employment, income and domestic spending. To make growth more inclusive, the research centre recommends using foreign investment to create greater domestic value through higher-value activities, technology development and workforce skills. It also calls for stronger links between foreign investors, large companies and Thai SMEs so local businesses can participate in emerging supply chains.
Support will also be needed for businesses and households struggling to adapt during the transition.
Growth in 2027 is expected to remain below Thailand’s potential, despite continued support from foreign investment, AI-related electronics, digital infrastructure and government spending on the energy transition.
SCB EIC identified several risks to the outlook, including additional US trade measures related to excess capacity and transshipment, a potential Super El Niño affecting agricultural output and food prices, geopolitical tensions and global energy-price volatility.
Household and SME financial vulnerability remains another concern, as weak income and limited access to credit could restrain consumption and domestic business activity. On monetary policy, SCB EIC expects the Bank of Thailand’s policy rate to remain at 1% through the end of 2027. Despite the low policy rate, financial conditions remain relatively tight, particularly for households and SMEs facing higher credit risks and weaker debt-servicing capacity.
Looking globally, SCB EIC forecasts world economic growth of 2.5% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, supported partly by AI-related investment and trade. But the benefits are also concentrated, with the United States making wider use of AI while China accelerates industrial applications. SCB EIC said the key challenge for Thailand is no longer simply attracting a new wave of investment, but ensuring that it creates more value, jobs and opportunities inside the country.
