PATTAYA, Thailand – Thailand’s baht is expected to trade within a wider range this week amid heightened global uncertainty, particularly escalating tensions in the Middle East and a stronger US dollar, according to Krungthai Global Markets.
The bank’s research unit projects the baht to move between 32.30–33.10 per US dollar over the week, with a near-term range of 32.65–32.90. The currency opened at 32.73, weakening from last week’s close of 32.60.
Analysts said the baht has been trading in a volatile sideways-up pattern, driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, including stalled ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran and increased concerns over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices have surged in response, with Brent crude briefly climbing to around $115 per barrel, adding further pressure on global inflation expectations and supporting the US dollar.
Despite temporary support from a stronger Japanese yen, the baht remains under pressure due to resilient US economic data and better-than-expected corporate earnings, which continue to reinforce dollar strength.
Foreign dividend outflows of an estimated 40–50 billion baht this week are also expected to weigh on the local currency.
Krungthai Global Markets noted that the baht could remain highly volatile in both directions, depending on developments in the Middle East and upcoming US economic data, including labor market indicators and corporate earnings reports.
Key resistance is seen at 32.75–32.85, with a psychological barrier at 33.00. A decisive break above this level could open the door toward 34.00 in technical scenarios. Support levels are seen at 32.50, 32.20–32.30, and 32.00.
Analysts advised investors to prepare for continued two-way volatility and consider scenario-based risk management strategies, including the use of hedging tools such as options, amid elevated market uncertainty.
