PATTAYA, Thailand – The Thai baht closed stronger at 32.57 per US dollar on April 3, up from 32.76 the previous day, supported by optimism that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz may begin to ease.
Regional currencies, including the baht, gained on reports of talks between Iran and Oman aimed at ensuring safe passage through the critical oil shipping lane. Additional support came from late-week dollar selling as investors adjusted positions.
However, foreign fund flows remained negative, with net outflows of 1.85 billion baht from Thai equities and 1.12 billion baht from bonds.
Kasikorn Research Center expects the baht to move within a range of 32.10–33.10 per dollar next week, with key factors to watch including Thailand’s March inflation data, global oil prices, foreign capital flows, developments in the Middle East, and signals from US Federal Reserve officials.
While markets are currently reacting positively to signs of de-escalation, analysts warn that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East — particularly involving the Strait of Hormuz — could quickly reverse sentiment.
For cities like Pattaya, the impact could be significant. A disruption to oil supply would likely drive up global energy prices, leading to higher transport and living costs. This could translate into more expensive flights, reduced tourist arrivals, and tighter spending by visitors.
A weaker baht in a prolonged crisis might offer some relief by making Thailand cheaper for foreign tourists, but that advantage could be offset if global economic uncertainty reduces long-haul travel demand — particularly among long-term visitors and retirees who are sensitive to exchange rates and cost-of-living pressures.
Local businesses in Pattaya — especially those reliant on tourism, transport, and hospitality — could feel the strain from both rising costs and shifting tourist behavior.
In short, while the baht is currently benefiting from hopes of stability, Pattaya’s economy remains exposed to the wider risks of any prolonged disruption in the Middle East.
