PATTAYA, Thailand – The Thai baht opened slightly weaker on January 29 at 31.16 baht per U.S. dollar, compared with the previous close of 31.07, according to Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS. The bank expects the currency to trade within a 31.05–31.30 baht per dollar range over the next 24 hours.
Since overnight trading, the baht has gradually weakened in a sideways-up pattern, moving within a range of 31.02–31.20. Pressure has come from a strengthening U.S. dollar, which benefited from a softer Japanese yen after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denied any U.S. intervention in the yen market. Rising U.S. 10-year bond yields also supported the dollar.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve voted 10–2 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, as expected. The Fed signaled no urgency to cut rates further, stressing the need to closely monitor incoming economic data before adjusting monetary policy.
Market participants are now awaiting key U.S. economic indicators, including jobless claims and durable goods orders. In Asia, attention is focused on Japan’s labor market data, retail sales, industrial production, and Tokyo CPI inflation.
Beyond economic data, investors are also monitoring corporate earnings and geopolitical developments, including rising tensions between the United States and Iran, disputes between the U.S. and European countries over Greenland, and prospects for negotiations to end the Russia–Ukraine war.
Krungthai maintains its view that the baht lacks a clear near-term direction and is likely to remain sideways. Resistance is seen near 31.30 baht per dollar, with the next level at 31.50, while support lies around 31.00.
Although gold prices have continued to hit record highs, the traditional correlation between gold and the baht has weakened. The 30-day correlation has dropped from over 80% to around 50–60%, suggesting speculative buying and “fear of missing out” (FOMO) may now be pressuring the baht, even as gold rises.
In the short term, escalating U.S.–Iran tensions have also pushed oil prices higher, adding pressure on the baht through increased dollar demand from importers, especially toward month-end. As a result, Krungthai believes the baht is unlikely to strengthen decisively below 31.00 in the near term unless the dollar weakens sharply.
From a technical perspective, the baht remains on a strengthening trend unless it clearly weakens beyond 31.50. On a medium-term weekly basis, the trend remains supportive until the currency breaks above 31.80, with a reassessment expected if it moves beyond the 32.10–32.20 zone.
