The last ditch attempt by the ruling caretaker government Pheu Thai to block the ascent of Anutin Charnvirakul appears to have failed. Acting prime minister Phumtam Wechayachai had sought approval to dissolve parliament immediately and call a general election. But The Council of State stated that an acting or caretaker premier lacked the specific power under article 103 of the constitution, a view endorsed in a letter from the Royal Secretariat citing unresolved legal conflicts and procedural irregularity.
The House of Representatives will now meet to elect a prime minister, with Bhumjaithai’s Anutin having more than half the House of Representatives’ votes in the bag after a written deal with the largest opposition group Peoples Party. Not to mention tacit support from small and tiny parties. Analysts say that a formal vote will take place within days, pending a time and date agreed between the House speaker and party whips. Anutin can count on 298 votes out of a total of 492.
But Anutin will only have a four months’ sprint as premier until he must call a general election according to the memorandum of understanding or guarantee signed with Peoples Party. The agenda in such a short time span will be essentially domestic, including steps towards organizing a national referendum about changing the constitution. The pact itself is highly unusual as the Peoples Party is insistent that it will remain formally in opposition, but will vote for the government on key decisions. In Thai history, it is unique for a party to have that kind of dual role.
All parties will use the next four months to prepare for the general election. Peoples Party is populist and liberal and hoping to replace Pheu Thai which has lost much support in the provinces after policy failures and mistakes. But Pheu Thai has influential backers, especially in the northern region, and cannot be written off just yet. Anutin’s Bhumjaithai party is royalist and conservative, but was largely responsible for the removal of cannabis from the narcotics list in 2022.
Anutin himself held various Cabinet portfolios during several earlier administrations led by Thaksin Shinawatra, general Prayut Chan-o-cha and Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The prospective premier is very well-versed in parliamentary maneuvers. Analysts say the general election after four months is a certainty because Anutin’s Bhumjaithai will not have sufficient votes to continue without the support of Peoples Party. Moreover, any last minute politicking in the new year would create a new and highly unwelcome political crisis at a time when the country’s economy is in the doldrums.
