BANGKOK, Thailand – Standard Chartered Bank has revised down Thailand’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.4%, citing rising global trade uncertainty and lingering impacts from the March earthquake, which have weighed on domestic consumption, tourism, and the property sector. The bank also lowered its inflation outlook to just 0.8%, falling below the Bank of Thailand’s target range, and expects an interest rate cut at the end of April.
Dr. Tim Leelahaphan, Assistant Managing Director and Economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered (Thailand), noted that persistent uncertainty remains a key challenge for central banks worldwide. The Thai economy, initially forecast to grow by 2.8%, now faces slower momentum, especially in the second half of the year. Growth is projected at 2.6% in H1 and 2.2% in H2, with a cautious outlook until September.
Inflation is expected to remain below the Bank of Thailand’s target band of 1–3% until Q3 2025. The lowered 0.8% forecast stems from a high base effect and a sluggish consumer recovery. Meanwhile, core inflation is projected to hold steady at 0.9%.
The bank anticipates the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will cut its policy interest rate by 0.25% during its April 30 meeting, bringing it down to 1.75%. Another rate cut is expected in Q3, likely ending the year at 1.5%. However, Dr. Tim noted that the pace of easing could be slower than expected, as the Bank of Thailand has not clearly signaled a dovish policy stance.
Regarding the Thai baht, Dr. Tim said it has appreciated quickly—from 35.0 to nearly 33.0 against the US dollar—following global USD weakening and continued high gold prices. However, he cautioned that the baht could face renewed volatility and weaken again mid-year due to the low tourist season and persistent trade war uncertainties. (TNA)
