BANGKOK, Thailand – The Thai Baht reached its weakest level in nearly two and a half months, falling to 34.44 Baht per US Dollar, while the Thai Stock Market hit a 5-year low toward the end of the week. Kasikornbank advises to closely monitor four key factors in the coming week, including the US-China trade war, global gold prices, foreign fund flows, and statements from Federal Reserve officials.
Kasikorn Research Center summarized the movements of the Baht, which weakened to the lowest level in nearly two and a half months before partially recovering later in the week. This came amidst heavy selling of the US Dollar due to fears of a US economic downturn.
The Baht briefly appreciated at the beginning of the week, driven by foreign capital inflows into the Thai bond market and additional support from rising global gold prices and strengthening regional currencies, contrary to the weakening US Dollar due to concerns over the US economy’s potential impact from increased trade tariffs.
However, the Baht reversed and weakened to 34.44 Baht per US Dollar, driven by a “Risk-Off” sentiment in the Asian financial markets after President Donald Trump announced retaliatory tariffs on several countries with trade surpluses against the US. This escalation raised concerns about the impact of the trade war on the global economy, including Thailand.
The announcement of the US’s reciprocal tariffs caused volatility in global financial markets, including the US Dollar, which led to a partial recovery in the Baht by the end of the week. Meanwhile, US bond yields fell due to worries about the economic effects of the increased tariffs and speculation about potential rate cuts by the Fed. Markets now expect that the Fed may need to cut interest rates more than indicated in its dot plot, given the increasing risks to the US economy.
Baht Graph
On Friday, April 4, the Baht closed at 34.18 Baht per US Dollar, compared to 33.97 Baht per US Dollar the previous Friday (March 28). As for foreign investment flows during March 31-April 4, foreign investors net sold Thai stocks worth 6.97 billion Baht but had a net inflow of 14.78 billion Baht into Thai bonds (14.79 billion Baht in purchases, offset by 7 million Baht in bond maturities).
For the week ahead (April 8-11, 2025), Kasikornbank forecasts the Baht will move in a range of 33.60-34.50 Baht per US Dollar, with key factors to watch including the US-China trade situation (with China’s tariffs on US goods taking effect on April 10), global gold prices, foreign fund flows, and Federal Reserve statements.
Important US economic data to watch include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for March, the minutes from the March 18-19 Fed meeting, preliminary consumer confidence for April, and weekly jobless claims. Markets will also be tracking Chinese CPI and PPI for March.
Stock Market Performance
The Thai Stock Market experienced significant declines late in the week, driven by concerns about the economic impact of the US’s retaliatory tariffs. The Thai stock index dropped sharply, touching a 5-year low of 1,122.51 points. The market also faced selling pressure due to the effects of the March 28 earthquake, with sectors like real estate and banking most affected, while the construction sector saw gains.
On Friday, April 4, the SET Index closed at 1,125.21 points, down 4.27% from the previous week, with average daily trading value rising 44.04% to 36.22 billion Baht. The Mai Index fell 1.91%, closing at 238.26 points.
For the upcoming week (April 8-11), Kasikorn Securities expects the Thai stock index to have support at 1,110 and 1,100 points, with resistance at 1,135 and 1,150 points. Important factors to watch include the ongoing US-China trade conflict and foreign fund flows, along with key US economic data.
Gold Market Fluctuates
The price of gold in Thailand was volatile on Friday, April 4, with gold prices fluctuating 22 times throughout the day before closing down by 450 Baht per Baht weight. Gold bars in Thailand were bought at 50,100 Baht and sold at 50,200 Baht, while 96.5% gold ornaments were bought at 49,194.20 Baht and sold at 51,000 Baht.
On Saturday, April 5, the Gold Traders Association adjusted prices, with gold bars selling for 49,700 Baht, slipping below the 50,000 Baht mark, while gold ornaments were priced at 50,500 Baht, maintaining a value above 50,000 Baht.
