It
would seem that everyone is interested in the future, and Author George
Friedman has already written “The Next 100 Years” but none of us
reading this review will still be around next century. However, almost all
the readers would hope to be around for the next decade.
Friedman’s “The Next Decade” (ISBN
978-0-385-53294-5, hardcover, Doubleday, 2011) promises a look at where we
have been and where we are going. In the Author’s Note he promises the book
would, “Look at the issues, opportunities and inherent challenges of the
next ten years.”
It is very American in its ambit, but the fact that vast
tracts of the globe trade with the US, makes the USA the de-facto trading
partner for the world. It is this that gives the US its power, says
Friedman, and produces the American empire. And the leader of the empire is
the American President. Friedman states, with some conviction and
credibility that Lincoln, Roosevelt and Reagan “… each was a profoundly
moral man … who was prepared to lie, violate the law and betray principal to
achieve those ends (setting the stage for the American empire).”
Friedman asserts that “… like Rome in the time of Caesar,
the United States has reached a point where it doesn’t have a choice as to
whether to have an empire or not. The vastness of the American economy, its
entanglement in countries round the world, the power and world-wide presence
of the American military, are in effect imperial in scope.”
The book deals with the post 9-11 terrorism and the 2008
financial crash. Friedman points out that the sub-prime mortgage debacle was
not just an “American” bubble that burst, but one that encompassed Eastern
Europe as well. Banks were offering low rate loans, but these were quoted in
euros, Swiss francs and even yen. With falling exchange rates for his
zlotys, the middle European home buyer faced higher and finally impossible
repayments. Gambling on the global currency markets would be a disaster. And
it was.
The book looks at the inter-country relationships and
their direction in the next decade. The Israel - American situation is
examined, after an explanation of the Jews-Syrian Arabs situations. Friedman
points out that after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the later
French and British meddling with borders, there were very few national
allegiances.
Friedman proposes that in the next 10 years America will
have to retreat somewhat in its relationship with Israel and move closer to
the Arab states. With the current Middle East problems, one is left
wondering if this is already happening before our eyes. We may not have to
wait for the decade.
Cogent argument is given as to why the US has to leave
the Iranian nuclear facilities free from attack to preserve the balance with
Turkey, a nation which has a clearer 10 year future. Now add in Russia, SE
Asia, Africa, e-commerce, technology and more.
At B. 830 for a hardback edition, this is a fascinating book,
particularly as it has many very salient points and the research leading up
to today is quite compelling.
