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Thai central bank raises 2010 economic growth forecast to 7.3-8%

The Bank of Thailand has revised upward its economic growth forecast for Thailand this year to 7.3-8 percent, higher than its earlier projection oft 6.5-7.5 percent, according to Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan.

The Thai economy is expected to grow more vigorously due to higher than expected economic growth in the first half of this year, which came in at 10.6 percent. The projection factored in the baht’s rising value but does not include what impact the major floods will have.

Exports in the first half of this year expanded at a satisfactory level and export growth for the whole year is expected at 25.5-28.5 percent, as the economies of 12 trading partners have improved. Private consumption is likely to drive the economy in the second half of the year, Paiboon said.

After the baht appreciation, Thai exporters have recently adapted well. They hedged against foreign exchange risks at 43 percent in September, up from 35 percent in August. Moreover, some exporters of particular goods are able to negotiate prices with trading partners using more foreign currencies in payment instead of the US dollar. They have also shortened the period of advance orders from six months to three months.

Regarding the policy interest rate, the BoT assistant governor said the real policy interest rate is negative at 1.25 percent, which is considered low, in order to stimulate the economy and is in a medium level compared to other countries. However, the low interest rate policy may cause distortion and lead to a real estate bubble. A sign can be seen when investors choose to invest in risky assets, he added.

Headline inflation stays at 2.8-3.8 percent and core inflation at 0.5-1.3 percent. Both are likely to increase to 3-5 percent and 2-3 percent respectively next year because prices of agricultural products will rise due to this year’s crop losses. (MCOT online news)
 


AustCham catches the Breezeo

Fr. Phakavee Sengcharoen (left) from the Camillian Social Center and his assistant Marco (right); gratefully accept a generous donation from Paul Wilkinson from AGS Four Winds.

Dr Iain Corness

The Australian Chamber of Commerce (AustCham) held its penultimate Seaboard Sundowners for 2010 at the Royal Cliff Beach Resort, in another well-attended function, with members of the visiting Australian Trade Commission mixing with the Automotive Focus Group and the AustCham members and friends.

The Jock and Doc show - Paul Strachan (left) and Dr. Iain Corness (right) interview Mark Bowling from Colliers International for Pattaya Mail TV.

The venue was the new Breezeo restaurant, which gave the AustCham Seaboard Sundowners a true ‘seaboard’ situation, with the new site actually on the beach.

The corporate sponsor was Kevin Fisher’s Cranes and Equipment Asia, a company that can supply everything from hand tools to machine tools and even undercover storage for its customers. Kevin said they were adding value to their client’s businesses through high quality and an innovative service, and they could also investigate and identify opportunities to improve processes and reduce costs. More details are available through the website www.ceaprojects.com.

AustCham Eastern Seaboard Coordinator Paul Whyte (left) shares a toast with Gary Baguley (right) from Blue Seas Asia.

The catering and venue sponsor was the Royal Cliff Beach Resort itself, and with senior staff such as Ranjith Chandrasiri on hand, he was quick to bring the AustCham members up to date with the refurbishments that have been happening at the famous hotel, one of the first in Pattaya. The catering was under the expert eye of Executive Chef Walter Thenisch (and the spicy mini-burgers were delicious)!

Following the very successful charity golf day run by Paul Wilkinson (AGS Four Winds) before the previous Seaboard Sundowners, AustCham was able to present to the Camillian Relief Center for people with HIV, a cheque for 165,000 baht, which was accepted with much thanks and humility by Fr. Phakavee Sengcharoen and assistant Marco.

Two lovely ladies from the Royal Cliff, Holly Claeys and Elizabeth Brown, were everywhere flashing their infectious smiles and making sure the event ran smoothly and were interviewed for Pattaya Mail TV for the Jock and Doc show, a mistake they won’t make again!

Another young lady, Rossukone Pavalee, the sales manager from the Holiday Inn Pattaya, was also doing the rounds and promoting her property and was last seen in earnest discussion with Kevin Fisher of CEA.

Mark Bowling was still flushed with success at having heard that his agency had won the Real Estate Agency Award for 2010. In an exclusive interview on Pattaya Mail TV, Dr. Iain asked him how much it had cost! The flush paled at the inference, but he took it all in good stead.

The sartorially splendid George Strampp spoiled his ‘look’ with the windswept hair style. It’s a visit to the sheep shearers George before the next event, or bring a violin.

The Sutlet Group’s new business development manager for the Eastern Seaboard, Richard Prouse, was very pleased to tell everyone that they now had permanent premises in Paniad Chang Soi 11, from which they could present their business solutions for everyone.

Another successful event for AustCham, with the outgoing executive director Brett Gannaway on hand to say some good-byes. However, there is no truth to the rumor that he is going to be a male model for the Brylcream company.

The final seaboard Sundowners for 2010 will be in conjunction with the Lighthouse Club at the Centara Grand Mirage on December 3.

(L to R) Fr. Phakavee Sengcharoen and assistant Marco from the Camillian Social Center; Paul Wilkinson from AGS Four Winds; Kevin Fisher from Cranes and Equipment Asia; AustCham Vice President John Anderson; and Ranjith Chandrasiri, deputy general manager of the co-hosts Royal Cliff Beach Resort & Spa celebrate a successful turnout.


AFG looks at investment risks

Dr. Iain Corness

A sizeable part of the world’s automobile manufacturing, and the parts required for the auto industry happens in Thailand, and in the Eastern Seaboard in particular. The investment in this region is in billions of dollars, not just baht.

Chris Bruton from Dataconsult
addresses the AFG.

The Automotive Focus Group (AFG) invited Chris Bruton of Dataconsult to give a current update of “In the current situation, what are the political, economic and business risks for existing and new investors in Thailand? Despite continuing political turmoil and strengthening of the Thai baht, exports are still increasing. Do the indicators show that this can continue or are new investors turning away from Thailand?”

As always, Chris Bruton’s address was full of the latest reviews of Thailand and its position within the ASEAN nations/SE Asia, and although rating second with its GDP, only ranks fourth when that GDP is viewed as GDP per capita.

An interesting comparison was highlighted with China’s per capita GDP, and although Thailand is doing marginally better, Chris Bruton predicts that Thailand’s figures will be surpassed by China in 2012.

The World Bank’s view of the ease of doing business in this region puts Thailand as number two, very close to Malaysia, but very much better than other competitors in this region such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia.

When looking at competitiveness, Thailand is not so good, coming in at fourth again, according to the World Economic Forum, being beaten by Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei. Chris Bruton did at this point mention the fact that Singapore is definitely the number one country in this region, though doing business there is not quite as simple, as there is just so much competition within Singapore itself.

The world’s perception of transparency in this region (in other words corruption) puts Thailand again fourth. Not as good as Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, but marginally better than Cambodia, Indonesia and Vietnam. This problem is endemic in the region, and Chris Bruton did not hold out much hope that it could be eradicated.

Thailand’s economic and political risk factors were overwhelmingly government instability and coups and political policy instability, followed by inefficient government bureaucracy and corruption. Against those factors, currency problems and labor relations were so small as to be almost non-existent.

The export markets for Thailand were very interesting, with East Asia taking 55 percent of the exports, while N. America and Western Europe were only 20 percent. Many manufacturers in Thailand should take note of this fact.

The final slide in Chris Bruton’s presentation covered the risk factors affecting investment and covered political and societal factors, such as the pending elections and unsettled red/yellow shirt confrontations.

In his summing up, Chris Bruton’s Dataconsult opinion was that Thailand wasn’t doing “too bad”, but obviously there were areas that needed attention! It was a presentation which kept the attention of the 50 attendees at all times, and again showed just how the AFG has developed over the past three years.


HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]

Thai central bank raises 2010 economic growth forecast to 7.3-8%

AustCham catches the Breezeo

AFG looks at investment risks

 

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