Thai central bank raises 2010
economic growth forecast to 7.3-8%
The Bank of Thailand has revised upward its economic
growth forecast for Thailand this year to 7.3-8 percent, higher than its
earlier projection oft 6.5-7.5 percent, according to Assistant Governor
Paiboon Kittisrikangwan.
The Thai economy is expected to grow more vigorously due
to higher than expected economic growth in the first half of this year,
which came in at 10.6 percent. The projection factored in the baht’s rising
value but does not include what impact the major floods will have.
Exports in the first half of this year expanded at a
satisfactory level and export growth for the whole year is expected at
25.5-28.5 percent, as the economies of 12 trading partners have improved.
Private consumption is likely to drive the economy in the second half of the
year, Paiboon said.
After the baht appreciation, Thai exporters have recently
adapted well. They hedged against foreign exchange risks at 43 percent in
September, up from 35 percent in August. Moreover, some exporters of
particular goods are able to negotiate prices with trading partners using
more foreign currencies in payment instead of the US dollar. They have also
shortened the period of advance orders from six months to three months.
Regarding the policy interest rate, the BoT assistant
governor said the real policy interest rate is negative at 1.25 percent,
which is considered low, in order to stimulate the economy and is in a
medium level compared to other countries. However, the low interest rate
policy may cause distortion and lead to a real estate bubble. A sign can be
seen when investors choose to invest in risky assets, he added.
Headline inflation stays at 2.8-3.8 percent and core
inflation at 0.5-1.3 percent. Both are likely to increase to 3-5 percent and
2-3 percent respectively next year because prices of agricultural products
will rise due to this year’s crop losses. (MCOT online news)
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AustCham catches the Breezeo
Fr. Phakavee Sengcharoen
(left) from the Camillian Social Center and his assistant Marco (right);
gratefully accept a generous donation from Paul Wilkinson from AGS Four Winds.
Dr Iain Corness
The Australian Chamber of Commerce (AustCham) held its
penultimate Seaboard Sundowners for 2010 at the Royal Cliff Beach Resort, in
another well-attended function, with members of the visiting Australian Trade
Commission mixing with the Automotive Focus Group and the AustCham members and
friends.
The Jock
and Doc show - Paul Strachan (left) and Dr. Iain Corness (right) interview Mark
Bowling from Colliers International for Pattaya Mail TV.
The venue was the new Breezeo restaurant, which gave the
AustCham Seaboard Sundowners a true ‘seaboard’ situation, with the new site
actually on the beach.
The corporate sponsor was Kevin Fisher’s Cranes and Equipment
Asia, a company that can supply everything from hand tools to machine tools and
even undercover storage for its customers. Kevin said they were adding value to
their client’s businesses through high quality and an innovative service, and
they could also investigate and identify opportunities to improve processes and
reduce costs. More details are available through the website
www.ceaprojects.com.
AustCham
Eastern Seaboard Coordinator Paul Whyte (left) shares a toast with Gary Baguley
(right) from Blue Seas Asia.
The catering and venue sponsor was the Royal Cliff Beach
Resort itself, and with senior staff such as Ranjith Chandrasiri on hand, he was
quick to bring the AustCham members up to date with the refurbishments that have
been happening at the famous hotel, one of the first in Pattaya. The catering
was under the expert eye of Executive Chef Walter Thenisch (and the spicy
mini-burgers were delicious)!
Following the very successful charity golf day run by Paul
Wilkinson (AGS Four Winds) before the previous Seaboard Sundowners, AustCham was
able to present to the Camillian Relief Center for people with HIV, a cheque for
165,000 baht, which was accepted with much thanks and humility by Fr. Phakavee
Sengcharoen and assistant Marco.
Two lovely ladies from the Royal Cliff, Holly Claeys and
Elizabeth Brown, were everywhere flashing their infectious smiles and making
sure the event ran smoothly and were interviewed for Pattaya Mail TV for
the Jock and Doc show, a mistake they won’t make again!
Another young lady, Rossukone Pavalee, the sales manager from
the Holiday Inn Pattaya, was also doing the rounds and promoting her property
and was last seen in earnest discussion with Kevin Fisher of CEA.
Mark Bowling was still flushed with success at having heard
that his agency had won the Real Estate Agency Award for 2010. In an exclusive
interview on Pattaya Mail TV, Dr. Iain asked him how much it had cost!
The flush paled at the inference, but he took it all in good stead.
The sartorially splendid George Strampp spoiled his ‘look’
with the windswept hair style. It’s a visit to the sheep shearers George before
the next event, or bring a violin.
The Sutlet Group’s new business development manager for the
Eastern Seaboard, Richard Prouse, was very pleased to tell everyone that they
now had permanent premises in Paniad Chang Soi 11, from which they could present
their business solutions for everyone.
Another successful event for AustCham, with the outgoing
executive director Brett Gannaway on hand to say some good-byes. However, there
is no truth to the rumor that he is going to be a male model for the Brylcream
company.
The final seaboard Sundowners for 2010 will be in conjunction
with the Lighthouse Club at the Centara Grand Mirage on December 3.
(L to R) Fr.
Phakavee Sengcharoen and assistant Marco from the Camillian Social Center; Paul
Wilkinson from AGS Four Winds; Kevin Fisher from Cranes and Equipment Asia;
AustCham Vice President John Anderson; and Ranjith Chandrasiri, deputy general
manager of the co-hosts Royal Cliff Beach Resort & Spa celebrate a successful
turnout.
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AFG looks at investment risks
Dr. Iain Corness
A sizeable part of the world’s automobile manufacturing,
and the parts required for the auto industry happens in Thailand, and in the
Eastern Seaboard in particular. The investment in this region is in billions
of dollars, not just baht.
Chris
Bruton from Dataconsult
addresses the AFG.
The Automotive Focus Group (AFG) invited Chris Bruton of
Dataconsult to give a current update of “In the current situation, what are
the political, economic and business risks for existing and new investors in
Thailand? Despite continuing political turmoil and strengthening of the Thai
baht, exports are still increasing. Do the indicators show that this can
continue or are new investors turning away from Thailand?”
As always, Chris Bruton’s address was full of the latest
reviews of Thailand and its position within the ASEAN nations/SE Asia, and
although rating second with its GDP, only ranks fourth when that GDP is
viewed as GDP per capita.
An interesting comparison was highlighted with China’s
per capita GDP, and although Thailand is doing marginally better, Chris
Bruton predicts that Thailand’s figures will be surpassed by China in 2012.
The World Bank’s view of the ease of doing business in
this region puts Thailand as number two, very close to Malaysia, but very
much better than other competitors in this region such as Vietnam, Indonesia
and Cambodia.
When looking at competitiveness, Thailand is not so good,
coming in at fourth again, according to the World Economic Forum, being
beaten by Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei. Chris Bruton did at this point
mention the fact that Singapore is definitely the number one country in this
region, though doing business there is not quite as simple, as there is just
so much competition within Singapore itself.
The world’s perception of transparency in this region (in
other words corruption) puts Thailand again fourth. Not as good as
Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, but marginally better than Cambodia, Indonesia
and Vietnam. This problem is endemic in the region, and Chris Bruton did not
hold out much hope that it could be eradicated.
Thailand’s economic and political risk factors were
overwhelmingly government instability and coups and political policy
instability, followed by inefficient government bureaucracy and corruption.
Against those factors, currency problems and labor relations were so small
as to be almost non-existent.
The export markets for Thailand were very interesting,
with East Asia taking 55 percent of the exports, while N. America and
Western Europe were only 20 percent. Many manufacturers in Thailand should
take note of this fact.
The final slide in Chris Bruton’s presentation covered
the risk factors affecting investment and covered political and societal
factors, such as the pending elections and unsettled red/yellow shirt
confrontations.
In his summing up, Chris Bruton’s Dataconsult opinion was
that Thailand wasn’t doing “too bad”, but obviously there were areas that
needed attention! It was a presentation which kept the attention of the 50
attendees at all times, and again showed just how the AFG has developed over
the past three years.
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