|
Money matters:
John Sheehan
Global Markets Asia
The inevitable demise of Western Democratic Capitalism? Part 2
Government ineffectiveness
demonstrated in numbers
The 2008 crash, that government neither understood nor
thought ever likely to occur, generates its own compelling statistics. Equity
markets lost US$26 trillion. Real estate markets, US$30 trillion so far, and are
still falling. Structured securities US$5 trillion according to the newly
elected US President until the spin machine gagged him! Add it all together and
US$60 trillion slipped through the net in a year - that is in excess of World
GDP, 4 years of the US economy and somewhere between 15 and 20 years of the
Chinese economy, all completely missed and deemed impossible by Government!
Who is responsible for this carnage? Government of course!
What sensible entity would cure a bubble by creating another one? In this case,
replacing the dot.com and TMT bubble of the ‘90s (which followed the big bang
boom of the ‘80s) with a housing bubble, and in doing so, demonstrating a clear
misunderstanding of macroeconomic interest rate policy!
The media is littered with quotes from government which at
first seemed amusing, but upon further reflection give an ominously alarmist
indication of government incompetence. Quotes like, “The unlikelihood of there
ever being a nationwide US housing crash!” That, “In spite of the sub-prime
crash market fundamentals were solid, and sub-prime was just a minor blip.”
Perhaps most worrying from the man now charged with leading the US out of
recession; “That sub-prime would be contained and might end up costing the
taxpayer as much as UD$100 billion!”
Recently described as a “moral hazard” at a Senate Committee
Hearing, Bernanke’s best solution to the current problem seems to be to repeat
the Greenspan misjudgement and generate a new asset bubble of sufficient
capacity to return the economy to growth!
Bernanke’s recovery tactics have centred on boosting the
money supply in an effort to avoid similar policy mistakes made by the Fed that
contributed to the Great Depression. Like his predecessors 70 years previously
he is now learning that it is relatively easy to inject the money into the
system, but a much tougher challenge to make it circulate freely and boost the
economy! Worryingly, he increasingly resembles an isolated academic rather than
the streetwise man of action critical to creating genuine confidence that is
capable of kick-starting a real and sustainable recovery.
In response to Milton Friedman’s criticism of the Fed’s
mistakes during the Great Depression, Bernanke stated in 2002: “As an official
representative of the Federal Reserve, I would like to say to Milton: Regarding
the Great Depression, ‘you’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to
you, we won’t do it again.’” As he is seemingly such a loyal follower of the
Friedman monetarist policies that have become so discredited in recent years,
let’s hope that these words do not return to haunt him in the future!
How Governments fix the
numbers
Number massaging has been used by governments since the dawn
of politics to paint a rosy picture, especially in the run-up to elections. The
three main areas where governments may seek to fraudulently improve their
perceived performance are unemployment numbers, GDP and consumer price indexes.
If one takes the US official unemployment rate as an example, which is currently
running at 10.2%: add back into the numbers the professionally unemployed
sector, which was removed in 1994 and short term discouraged workers and the
unemployment rate doubles to 22%! That means that within the working age
population one out of every five people are being subsidized by the other four!
Another example is calculation of GDP numbers. GDP numbers
are generally optimistic because they include government spending but do not
subtract government borrowing to fund the spending. There are three main ways to
calculate GDP: 1) the expenditure method, 2) the income method, and 3) the
value-added method. Theoretically all three methods should produce the same
result, but as we have seen recently with the torrent of stimulus packages from
governments all around the world GDP “growth” registers most prominently in the
expenditure method. Manipulation in this manner has, for example, enabled the
Australian government to claim that it has avoided entering recession in 2009.
Obvious adjustment is clearly evident within the Consumer Price Index when the
method of calculation was changed during the Clinton administration to give a
better picture of the numbers.
Blatant withholding of information by Government has recently
come to light as a result of Bloomberg suing the Fed under the Freedom of
Information Act. On November 7th 2009 Bloomberg commenced an action in response
to the Fed refusing to release information regarding commercial bank lending. It
is likely that if this information were released it would show the truth behind
lending performance which would likely have an adverse effect upon markets and
expose a fundamental constituent of Government’s stimulus programmes as failing.
In addition to this, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
also brought out a suit against the Fed in December 2009 seeking a court order
for release of the central bank’s records on intervention in the gold market
undertaken in order to manipulate the metal’s market price!
To be continued…
|
The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
|
Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Inspiration and your favorite photographer
 Do
you have you a favorite photographer? No? Well, you should! Everyone
should have a photographer whose work stimulates you to greater heights.
For me, I have many whose work I enjoy - Norman Parkinson, Helmut Newton
and Jeff Dunas all rate high, but one photographer who inspires me not
only with his images, but also with his words, is Larry Dale Gordon.
I have many photographic books in my personal library
including the irreplaceable “Shooting your way to a million dollars” by
Richard Sharabura, Al Satterwhite and Michael Busselle. However Larry
Dale Gordon has his own special magic.
Now when I say that your favorite photographer’s work
should inspire you, that does not mean that you should rush out and
slavishly copy their work. Don’t laugh, I have seen it done so many
times in camera club level photographers who have been most upset when I
mark them down for copying, rather than being creative.
When I say “inspire” I mean that you look at the work
and say to yourself, “How did he/she do that?” You should look at the
end result and work out how you can use that technique, to produce your
own shot. Half the fun in photography is working out “how to” with the
other half being the enjoyment of looking at the final image.
So why does Larry Dale Gordon inspire me? There are
many reasons. First off, he is a self trained photographer who believes
that the way to learn is to do it. Let me quote you from one of his
books: “I learned photography through experience; by putting film
through the camera, peering through the lenses, trial and error, and
pondering every facet of light. It’s the only way. If you think there is
another way, or a faster way, write a book telling how and you will make
considerably more money than by being a photographer.” These are very
wise words. Cut them out and stick them on your bathroom mirror and read
them every day! In fact, a renowned Thai photographer, Tom Chuawiwat,
used to tell me that professional photography was the only job where the
client paid you to learn!
I’ve tried to see just what it is about Larry Dale
Gordon’s pictures that appeal so much to me and I’ve come up with two
basic concepts. Simplicity and Color.
Look at the photograph I have used to illustrate this
week’s article. A classic, showing simplicity and color by a Colin
Glanfield. The couple running up the beach, silhouetted against the
water and the sand in the background. Unfortunately, this newspaper is a
black and white medium, so just imagine, if you will, what that shot
looks like with the water a golden orange with the black shadows and
silhouette. It is a simple, uncluttered shot with only one color in it.
It is classic and timeless and there is absolutely nothing to detract
(or distract) from the couple in the photograph.
Now before you rip out with two friends at sunset and
try and duplicate this shot, read the second paragraph again! Let’s not
make slavish copies! But instead, let’s look at how we can accomplish
the effect of a monochromatic picture and silhouette. This can actually
be done any time of day, but to make it easier for you, pick your
favorite beach or riverside at a time when the sun can be behind your
subject - be that people or things. Now you need a tricky filter, called
a “tobacco” filter. On that bright sunny day, with the light behind your
subject(s) hold this brown/orange filter over the lens and pop the
shutter. Stick it on Auto if you will, the camera will do the rest. Even
experiment with different colors to get strangely wonderful or weirdly
dreadful results.
The only point to really remember is to get the light
behind the subject. You will be able to get this “pseudo sunset” look
any time after three in the afternoon. Try it and amaze your friends
with a classic silhouette - and if you don’t tell them about Colin
Glanfield, I won’t!
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
How’s your (sickness) insurance?
I was talking to the Scandinavian Expats Club and mentioned
the check-up packages offered by the Bangkok Hospital Pattaya. I advised
them to seriously consider an annual check-up. In my humble (medical)
opinion, the advantages of finding medical problems at an early stage far
outweigh not knowing.
For example, correcting hypertension at an early stage
makes medical sense. You must agree that correcting hypertension is better
than brain surgery and intensive care after a stroke caused by high blood
pressure, never mind pain and suffering and living the rest of your life as
a tomato or an even less colorful vegetable!
Likewise, correction of high blood sugar today beats
having your leg surgically removed because of diabetic problems in 20 years
time!
However, Peter Smith from AA Insurance Brokers brought
out an interesting situation, which could be vitally important for someone
finding they have a chronic problem. If you have your check-up and find that
you have high blood pressure, and then go and take out insurance, it is too
late. You “know” about your blood pressure problem at the time of applying
for the insurance, so it becomes a ‘pre-existing condition’ and your insurer
is within its rights to refuse to pay for the further treatment of your
blood pressure, or for any other conditions caused by high blood pressure.
Including the stroke.
The simple answer is to make sure your insurance policies
are in place before having the annual check-up. In fact, I strongly advise
everyone to take out medical insurance. You do not know what is round the
next corner. It could be a motorcycle coming the wrong way up a one way
street. Even I have insurance, and I work in the hospital, so I don’t really
need it - but I can also be run over in Bangkok, Chiang Mai or Nakhon
Nowhere!
So back to check-ups. Many people work on the principle
that they would rather not know about any underlying or sinister medical
conditions they may have. After all, we are all going to die one day, aren’t
we? I have always said that despite all the advances in medical science, the
death rate will always be the same – one per person!
However, check-ups are inherently involved in that
important feature called the Quality of Life. Longevity alone, with no
quality, just isn’t worth it in my book.
The guiding principle behind check-ups is to find
deviations from normal health patterns at an early stage. Early enough that
the trend can be reversed, before damage has occurred. Examples of this
include blood pressure (BP) increase which is generally symptomless, and
blood sugar. It requires sky-high sugar levels before the person begins to
feel that something might be wrong. And by then the sugar levels have
affected vision, the vascular system and many other systems, all of which
can decrease your quality of life in the future.
Respiratory conditions also rate high on the list of
medical events that can decrease your quality of life. Yet the majority of
these can be found early, and treated successfully.
Cardiac conditions and abnormalities, be that in anatomy
or function, can also very adversely affect your quality of life, but are
very easily found during a routine check-up. Various blood tests and an EKG
can show just how well the cardiac pump is functioning, and how well it will
continue to function in the future. The inability to walk more than 50
meters certainly takes the fun out of shopping, yet this can be predicted -
if you have some serial records!
Another of the silent killers can be discovered in your
lipid profile, with Cholesterol and its fractions HDL and LDL being
intimately connected with your cardiac status. Again a situation where
detecting abnormalities now can mean that you can get through the deadly
50-60 year age bracket in the future with clear coronary arteries and a
clean bill of health.
Renal (kidney) function and liver function can also be
monitored through an annual check-up, as can prostate size (indicated by the
PSA blood test) or breast tumors (by mammogram).
Take my tip, make sure you have insurance and then get
your check-up. But do it quickly! That makes good sense.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
You do seem to cop some stick from all the “thinkers” out
there who believe in Santa Claus and sick buffaloes as being facts. One chap hit
it right on the head when he wrote that you’ll always have a job as there are so
many mindless males visiting Thailand. Just ignore the idiots out there, old
girl, we all love you. Keep up the good work.
Max
Dear Max,
Thank you for the morale booster, even if what you call “the idiots out there”
really need ‘moral’ boosters. If they thought with the big head, rather than the
small one, if you understand my shorthand, then there wouldn’t be so many men
wondering where their nest eggs went to. However, Petal, it is my duty to try
and look after these poor souls, a task I voluntarily undertook after seeing the
plight of several of these buffaloes and brothers with broken legs from
motorcycle accidents. You have to feel sorry for them, Max. You really do, but
please, if you contact me in the future a little less of the “old girl”.
Dear Hillary,
I have just recently come to live in Pattaya with my husband on a two year
overseas posting. Normally back home I like to be fairly independent and drive
myself everywhere, but I am a little afraid of the traffic here. My husband’s
company supplies a driver, but I don’t like to think of him sitting around in
the heat while I do my shopping. Do you think it is safe enough for Western
women to drive here and at night too? My husband says I shouldn’t bother and it
doesn’t matter, that’s what the driver’s there for. What do you think?
Theresa
Dear Timid Theresa,
Your husband is right. If you have a driver be eternally grateful. Thai drivers
really do not mind waiting. One of the bonuses of being a driver is that they
get paid to sleep while they wait, in air-conditioned comfort too. Yes it is
completely safe to drive around Pattaya both day and night compared to Bangkok
traffic which is chaotic and not so much fun. Though, as your husband says, why
bother to drive if you have a driver? That is what he is there for. If you are
concerned about your independence or the driver being suddenly unavailable, then
practise driving here so there’s never a problem.
Dear Hillary,
There has been a crackdown recently about copy goods - shirts, CD’s and watches
and the like. Why is this? Everyone knows that you go to Asia and buy real
bargains. I always bring back three or four watches for the girl friends and a
couple of footy shirts for the blokes. What’s wrong with this? If I can’t get
the stuff in Thailand, do you know where I can get them? I’m coming over in a
couple of weeks, so if you can let me know early that would be good.
Copycat
Dear Copycat,
How would you feel if you made some type of special goods and then found that
cheap copies were being marketed at half the price you sell them for? Mind you,
I think that many of these overseas goods are highly over-priced too. The whole
question of copyright is well beyond Hillary’s brain, I’m afraid. I’m just
worried about getting ‘copy’ champagne. As to where you can go to get the things
you want - the markets still have them I believe, but don’t tell the police.
Unless the police are running the market!
Dear Hillary,
Are all Thai girls as forward as the one I met the other night? I was sitting on
my own in the bar and I didn’t want to listen to the usual inane chatter that
the bar girls carry on with, “Hello sexy man. Where you come from?” that kind of
stuff. I started to talk to the service girl and she seemed a nice enough lady,
so I bought her a couple of drinks, but then went home. The next day she rolls
up at my office with some flowers for me! I was so embarrassed, as all my work
mates were laughing, and the girls in the office weren’t all that impressed. I
asked one of the girls to find out what she wanted, but all they said was that
the lady liked me. What do I do with this? The last thing I need is unwanted
visits.
Embarrassed Edward
Dear Embarrassed Edward,
Just how did this girl know where you worked? If she is clairvoyant, then I
think you should keep her, my Petal, and cash up on all the winning lottery
tickets she will predict for you. But if, on the other had, it was because you
gave her your business card, then you have nobody to blame but yourself. If you
don’t want to be followed up, don’t hand out your business cards. Of course you
can always use someone else’s card, but I didn’t tell you that.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Nak Prok / Shadow of the Naga: Thai, Action/ Drama — A
long-shelved monks-with-guns crime drama, it’s the story of three
thieves who bury their loot on the grounds of a Buddhist monastery, and
when they come back later to dig it up, they find a temple has been
built on the spot. So they ordain as Buddhist monks while they figure
out how to get their treasure. The film actually premiered at the
2008 Toronto International Film Festival, but its strong depictions of
the thieves robed as Buddhist monks have kept it out of Thai theaters
until now.
Alice in Wonderland (3D): US, Adventure/ Family/
Fantasy – This is not your usual Alice, and it would be more truthful to
call is something like “Alice Returns to Wonderland”, because
it’s a new story, a riff on the original, with Alice all grown up as a
late teens girl about to be proposed to. In the middle of the proposal
by the world’s biggest drip, she spies the white rabbit, who seems to
summon her. Happy for any excuse to dodge her awful fate, she tells the
huge garden party to wait a minute, and she returns to the rabbit hole
and falls down it once again to find Wonderland even more frightening
than before, in the hands of a cruel despot who is making life miserable
for everybody. Alice is charged with ending the evil and bringing things
back to what passes for normal in Wonderland.
With Tim Burton, plus this particular Alice (Misa Wasikowska),
plus Johnny Depp in another of his way-out-there tragicomic
performances, plus 3D – it all adds up to an unforgettable,
one-of-a-kind movie experience. Mixed or average reviews. In 3D, and at
Pattaya Beach only.
Green Zone: France/ US/ Spain/ UK, Action/ Drama/
Thriller/ War – Discovering covert and faulty intelligence causes a US
Army officer to go rogue as he hunts for those elusive “Weapons of Mass
Destruction” believed to be stockpiled in the Iraqi desert at the start
of the Iraq war. Rocketing from one booby-trapped and treacherous site
to the next, the men search for deadly chemical agents but stumble
instead upon an elaborate cover-up.
Starring Matt Damon, directed by Paul Greengrass (The
Bourne Supremacy, United 93). Rated R in the US for violence and
language, 18+ in Thailand. Big C has only a Thai-dubbed version; in
English elsewhere. Generally favorable reviews.
Daybreakers: Australia/ US, Action/ Drama/ Horror/
Sci-Fi/ Thriller – For me, a most excellent and exciting vampire film in
the old school. In the year 2019, a plague has transformed most every
human into a vampire. Faced with a dwindling blood supply, the dominant
race plots their survival; meanwhile, a researcher works with a covert
band of vampires on a way to save humankind. But be aware, it’s a true
vampire film, and as such is very bloody indeed, with many gory deaths
and a slew of decapitations, including close-ups of the severed heads
seemingly on the verge of speaking a few final words.
Starring Ethan Hawke, Willem Dafoe, and Sam Neill. Rated R in
the US for strong bloody violence, language, and brief nudity; 18+ in
Thailand. Big C has only a Thai-dubbed version; in English elsewhere.
Mixed or average reviews.
The Book of Eli: US, Action/ Adventure/ Drama/
Thriller/ Western – Not for everyone, but I found it thoroughly
engrossing. The story revolves around a lone warrior (Denzel Washington)
who must fight to bring society the knowledge that could be the key to
survival. Gary Oldman is great as the despot of a small town who’s
determined to take possession of the book Eli’s guarding.
Directed by the twin Hughes brothers (Albert and Allen), who
inject some fresh stylish fun into a post-apocalyptic wasteland. I think
Denzel is terrific! Rated R in the US for some brutal violence and
language, 18+ in Thailand. Big C has only a Thai-dubbed version; in
English elsewhere. Mixed or average reviews.
Dear John: US, Drama/ Romance/ War – Out of nowhere,
Pattaya Beach brings us this rather dull piece. It’s a romantic drama
about a soldier who falls for a conservative college student while he’s
home on leave. Intensely weepy, if you’re a 12-year-old girl. Starring
Channing Tatum, Amanda Seyfried, and Henry Thomas. At Pattaya Beach
only. Mixed or average reviews.
The Wolfman: UK/ US, Horror/ Thriller – An excellent
spare, dark, and brooding gothic version of the famous tale, told with
great style and much blood. For those who like straight-up Gothic horror
and blood, this is a welcome remake of the 1941 Lon Chaney movie.
Starring Benicio Del Toro and Anthony Hopkins. Rated R in the US for
bloody horror violence and gore; 18+ in Thailand. Mixed or average
reviews.
Avatar: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – A
very good film and a truly major technological breakthrough. It’s
exciting and beautiful, and has received near-universal rave reviews
from critics and fans. Only Pattaya Beach is showing it now, at a single
midnight showing each day, in 3D. Reviews: Universal acclaim. Not to be
missed.
The Little Comedian / Ban Chan: Thai, Family/ Comedy –
A family comedy troupe harbors a black sheep – a son who isn’t funny
and is constantly upstaged by his filthy-mouthed younger sister.
Directed by Witthaya Thongyooyong, one of the directors on the famed
Fan Chan. Comedian Jaturong Mokjok plays the father of the clan. In
Thai only at Big C; English subtitles elsewhere.
From Paris with Love: France, Action/ Crime/ Thriller
– A French intelligence operative partners with a wisecracking,
fast-shooting, high-ranking US agent (a bald John Travolta) who’s been
sent to Paris to stop a terrorist attack. Stylish, fast-moving,
exciting, with a wild performance by Travolta. Rated R in the US for
strong bloody violence throughout, drug content, pervasive language, and
brief sexuality; 18+ in Thailand. Mixed or average reviews. At Pattaya
Beach only.
Who Are You?: Thai, Horror/ Thriller – Typical Thai
bloody horror, this one about a mother whose son has withdrawn from
social life and locked himself away in his room for five years. Rated
18+ in Thailand.
Kong Phan / Gong-pan: Plot: You’re in the Army now!
What fun! It’s been described as a “gays in the military romp.” Studio
synopsis: “Jiwon, a young lad, is enlisted to the army where he meets
his new and unusual friends.”
Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief:
Canada/ US, Fantasy/ Comedy – Zeus’ lightning bolt has been stolen, and
high school student Percy Jackson is the prime suspect in this sprawling
and entertaining teen adventure. At Pattaya Beach only. Mixed or average
reviews.
|
